Up to you to decide. However you can order it direct from the govt for less money and not worry.
February 2025 - Citizenship Applications
- Thread starter trackerCan-Cit
- Start date
Ghost update (GU) is that Tracker's "Last Update" date is changing but nothing else changed. Old items marked as new. Some people got Test/Oath/Interview invite, Fingerprint request after GU. Many people didn't see anything after GU.
IRCC follow this pattern. If for any reason IRCC files gets delayed (Covid, Elections) they increase the processing time. They will pickup new files and do business as usual while slowing clearing out delayed files few at a time. Thats why we are seeing many feb files stuck and moving slowly while new files flying as usual. It is what it is. Its a privilege. We gotta wait and be hopeful that remaining files don't get lost in abyss.
I don't have any inside information, but I don't think that's (likely to be) an accurate description - I don't think they're 'intentionally' sorting things this way, i.e. keeping the speed of new files same while 'clearing out' delayed files on a slow basis.
It looks to me more like this: there are several distinct steps in the process that have separate teams and procedures and levels of authority required. The key thing in this view is that increased volumes of apps / sudden changes in resource constraints / staff reallocation etc can cause big differences in delays. The more recent months are 'flying' because they're still at the easiest/least complex steps, the parts that are least likely to turn out to be bottlenecks. Feb/March are showing some delays because at the most complex steps, subsequent months will probably see them too (unless the issues are resolved and they catch up).
Eg
-'AOR': initial review / check / classification into some sub-groups acc to risk/complexity categories - modest level of training, lots of administrative work, small number of 'senior' officers. Because it involves a lot of administrative steps and uses some automation, not many 'scarce' (senior) staff, changes in volume of apps and staffing don't make a big difference. (Warning: to a point. System problems etc can cause big delays but hopefully rare). But this step designed to be fairly quick and regular - it's a factory.
-initial background / physical presence / test schedule / language: Complexity higher, starts to use outside resources, more senior staff required, etc. More variety in delays. Some steps start to get delayed here if outside parts get delayed. They may schedule things partially sequentially, etc. Delays start to happen more overall if large volumes of apps / staff shortages / staff get diverted. But 'easy' files still tend to go through with decent speed. Some percentage get delayed in-between amounts, based on risk / outside agencies: eg physical presence detailed checks, fingerprint issues, etc.
-BG/Prohibitions: this is the biggest potential delays. (I'm grouping here because the background / prohibitions / 'security' overlap. The trackers don't consistently reflect the status of these). Basically this is where files can REALLY diverge or get delayed for longer periods, even if 'most' go through pretty quick (the ones that go through quickly probably have minimal involvement of outside security agencies, not much more than a database check). High dependence on risk classification at stages, senior staff/judgment needed, decision making authority / delegation to seniors, reliance on outside agencies.
This last stage is where staff shortages, increased demand for scarce resources (senior people, outside agency clearances, etc) have the most impact on longer timelines. Because it's more 'manual' work than automated, more risk of files getting stuck in a queue / someone's desk. Etc.
Oh - and yes, changing priorities, staff cuts, election demands (security clearances for new staff), staff reallocation and moves (time for people to learn new responsibilities is longer at high levels than for low-level admin staff) - at these last steps, this is where the longer delays really start to build up. (And of course from time to time they will purposefully make changes to address the issues, either allocating resources differently or changing some procedures if they can identify issues).
Note, while I've described somewhat conceptually what I think is going on, this is only a rough description. An analogy. To get a better idea you'd have to see the actual workflows / diagrams, which is surely an order of magnitude more complex.
[Another way to think of this is a bunch of highways with transfers points/junctions with limited throughput - everything moves smoothly enough when volume below a certain level and/or no accidents or road problems, but bottlenecks happen at certain junctions and big delays for those junctions. "Easy" files stay on the main highways mostly, some sideroads are prone to delays, and they only get back on the main highway (oath scheduling for example) when done with the detours.]
Similar threads
