Express Entry mid year report by CIC July 31 2015- Very Informative!

[Ishneetd]

Hi,

Found this extremely important piece of information (From Canada govt official site) that could help in analysing the situation in canada immigration office and determine scores:

http://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/734bbc68-d5a5-4331-b99a-0b7237a9785d

Accordingly, as of January 5, 2015, the pending number of applications with CIC are as follows:

Working Inventory - Federal Skilled Worker applications - 46,398
Backlog - Other permanent resident applicants include Family Class, Refugees, Humanitarian and Compassionate and others in the Economic Class - 3,72,837

As of Jan 5,2015, Total Applicants Awaiting a Decision - 4,19,235

_____________________________________________________________

Considering previous years govt statistics (2013 & 2014) on no. of people given PRs in a year ~ 2 Lac 60 thousand with break-up below

Subtotal Economic Class: Principal Applicants ~65k & Spouses and Dependants ~85k
Spouses, Partners and Children (including Family Relations – Humanitarian and Compassionate Considerations (H&C)) ~50k
Parents & Grandparents ~30k
Refugees ~24k
Others ~5k

___________________________________________________________

All the people good with numbers, can you please include this data in your statistics to see how much chances we have in 2015 - In the cut-off score prediction exercise

 

[Ishneetd]

I am therefore assuming that for the 2015 goals, they would consider at-least 50% of the previous back-log for Principal applicants - that will be nearly 25k principal applicants plus they will take 40k principal applicants this year that includes CEC, provincial nomination, FSW, and FST. This would help them reach the ~65k PA target for 2015.

I am considering very high hopes from the last quarter of 2015. however, these are solely my assumptions based on the data I have seen.

 

[Rahul12]

The CRS wud never go below 450. considering a huge number of pending applications from the previous year. BTW CICs target includes the applications from previous years. And its recession here in Canada. So they might reduce the number of PR applications this year

 

[Ishneetd]

The CRS wud never go below 450. considering a huge number of pending applications from the previous year. BTW CICs target includes the applications from previous years. And its recession here in Canada. So they might reduce the number of PR applications this year

However, I think the back-log that affects us is (Federal Skilled Worker applications - 46,398) and not the remaining 3.5 lakh because they wil keep a ratio of all applications. If you look at the previous years, the ratio of FSWs versus other categories has mostly remained constant.

Considering the recession thing, it should not impact the FSW stream, rather can impact the other stream (Family, reunion, etc. coz that is a burden for Canada and not young workforce).

Also, the report they published in End of March 2015 for 2016 immigration targets shows similar targets as has been for 2014 and 2015. This clearly indicates whether recession or not, the government is not planning to cut down immigration levels. Further, immigration is supposed to cater to the long-term requirements of a country with an ageing workforce

 

[louispretorius]

41218 candidates in the pool and 10951 have scores over 400. That's a little over 25%. And the pool is growing by about 1500 each week which is 6000 every month. 2 draws a month and 1500 each draw means they draw 3000 every month. of the new 6000 added every month, if 25% have scores higher than 400, that's only about 1500. So statistically it should gradually come down over the following months. Since there are 14597 candidates with scores 350-399, I think that's where its going to stabilize eventually. Anyone following my logic here or am I wrong in my assumptions?

 

[munjal]

41218 candidates in the pool and 10951 have scores over 400. That's a little over 25%. And the pool is growing by about 1500 each week which is 6000 every month. 2 draws a month and 1500 each draw means they draw 3000 every month. of the new 6000 added every month, if 25% have scores higher than 400, that's only about 1500. So statistically it should gradually come down over the following months. Since there are 14597 candidates with scores 350-399, I think that's where its going to stabilize eventually. Anyone following my logic here or am I wrong in my assumptions?

Hi,

you are following the logic shared in below post..
pls check : http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/express-entry-mid-year-report-by-cic-july-31-2015-very-informative-t330725.0.html;msg4529554#msg4529554

 

[singhyogeshkumar]

No one can make predictions about CRS cutoff...

but we can present our analysis of past data..

Last four draws have fetched 1500+ ITAs in each draw.. so we can expect the similar numbers in this 14th draw also.. (1500+ ITAs)

As per Mid-year EE report, there were 2180+ applicants having 450+ CRS as on July 6th, 2015.

>1000 51
950 - 999 38
900 - 949 40
850 - 899 65
800 - 849 62
750 - 799 64
700 - 749 27
650 - 699 7
600 - 649 1
550 - 599 2
500 - 549 38
450 - 499 1,786 at this point 2181 on 6 Jul 12th n 13th draw (3097) which means 961 entered in pool within 14 days with CRS 450+
400 - 449 8,770
350 - 399 14,597
300 - 349 12,517
250 - 299 2,247
200 - 249 585
150 - 199 225
100 -149 75
<100 21
Total 41,218
Source: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-midyear-2015.asp

Out of 41218, 5% profiles have CRS 450 & above (approx 2000 candidates) and 20 % of profiles have CRS between 400 -449 (approx 8800)
so 25 % profiles of entire EE Pool are above 400 CRS (1786+8800 = 9500)... and those are the most expected profiles to get ITAs apart from those PNP profiles nominated under OOPNP and other PNPs such SINP, MPNP etc.

Every Draw have almost 50% of ITAs given to CEC profiles, this may be mainly due to LMIA (with additional 600 points).

As per report, every week 1500 new profiles are added in the EE pool and if 40% of these are considered not eligible (as per the statistics of last mid-year report published by CIC), then also 900 new EE profiles will be added every week..
at an average of 130 per day.

So we can assume that 130 x 4 = 500-520 new eligible profiles added in the EE pool during 6th to 10th July.

25% of these 500 new profiles, it will be 125 new profiles added with CRS 400 & above.

Just after 4 days of publishing this report, 12th draw happened on July 10th with 1581 ITAs and 463 cutoff...

so, 2190 - 1581 = 600 applicants were remained in the pool having CRS between 450 to 463.. plus newly added 500 profiles to entire EE pool.

That means there were average 45-50 applicants sitting at every point increase if we count from 450 CRS to 463 CRS (difference of 13 points CRS within 600 applicants)

13th draw: July 17th with 1516 ITAs and 451 cutoff..
this was 12 CRS points lower than previous cutoff and we can consider here that those 600 applicants above CRS 450 from last draw got ITAs in this draw (just to exclude those applicants with CRS 450)

Out of these 1500+ ITAs, if we consider 200 were given towards PNP with additional 600 points, and at least 40% (600 ITAs) given to CEC profiles,
then also there were 100 ITAs given to new profiles who were previously not into the pool but now they became eligible to get the ITA.

This accounts for those new 130+ eligible profiles added into EE pool per day (1500 per week) and so during 11 days from 6th july to 17th july total 11 x 130 = 1500 eligible profiles may have added.. and of this 5 % (approx 75-100) will be having CRS of 450+ and so they got ITA in this 13th draw.



If you see.. OOPNP have started from 2-July-2015 and they have sent invitations to as many applicants who are 400+ CRS.. OOPNP have 2700 nominations to give away.. even if they give 20% of these in Aug draw.. then it will be 500+ ITAs alone from OOPNP with additional 600 points..

so, If those invitations are going to convert into ITAs in this draw with additional 600 points, this month we can expect a surge in CRS cutoff...

These are just ITAs for OOPNP, if we add up ITAs for SINP, Nova Scotia, MPNP and other PNPs, then we can add up more 100 ITAs into this..

so total 700+ ITAs we can expect only from PNPs in next draw happening in August-2013 (with all having their CRS well above 700 or 800)



One more thing to consider is that every week there is addition of 1500 new profiles in the EE pool and if 40% of these are considered not eligible (as per the statistics of last mid-year report published by CIC), then also 900 new EE profiles will be added every week..

so, if draw happens in first week of Aug, then already 2700-3000 new eligible profiles are added to EE pool since July 17th and even if we consider only 5% of them to be above 450 score then it will be 150 + profiles with CRS of 450+



Also, in every draw, almost 40%-50% of ITAs were given to CEC people, most probably because of they were supported with LMIA... if we consider at least 30% of ITAs given to CEC people in this draw then it will be 450 ITAs for CEC people ..



Combining all these hypothetical figures together:

700 from PNAs + 450 from CEC + 150 new eligible ITAs = 1300 ITAs for August-2015 draw.

Finally, if we want to make any assumptions (though it will be purely fictitious), we can say that next draw of August month will be purely PNP + CES/LMIA oriented with CRS cutoff well above 500.

Hi Munjal,

Now that the 15th draw has happened, and the CRS points are nearing 450, whats your take on the situation. As per your calculations it should have been near 500.

 

[Ishneetd]

 

[redfox05]

So elsewhere on the forum someone suggested that due to this report it may cause some people to jump ship.

But I don't quite see why it would cause people to jump ship? Unless I missed the blinding obvious, which I can be prone to lol.

What do people think? I'm about to submit my Express Entry profile next week, as I've just got my WES certification and IELTS scores through this week. I'm excited, but then also nervous after seeing the above post about people jumping ship after that report.

Any advice or just general chat about their situation or mine is welcomed Smiley Like I said, new to this forum, so don't know where one starts joining the discussions really.

 

[Ishneetd]

Analysis for EE scores / ITAs/ draws for 2016. Please let me know if you find this logical/any issues in my understanding.

Every year CIC targets around 78,000 Principal applicants including PNP, CEC, and FSW. They launched EE in Jan 2015. They had a backlog of ~46,000 Principal applicants.

In 2015, considering similar no. of draws and ITAs each draw, they would have nearly 32,000 ITAs including PNP and CEC. So, the rest ITAs come out to be (78k minus 32k = 46k). Thus CIC will wrap up the previous inventory of applicants.

Now coming to 2016, considering the same no 78,000 - divided by 12 months - Each month should have 6k to 7k ITAs. Therefore, express entry scores have to go down.

Also, considering the mid year statistics, this year by end of December the score can go down to 440 and maximum 430. Next year 1st quarter end can see the score go down to 400 as well while by the end of 2016 - It would go as low as 300 (This could be the stable cut-off EE score in future years as well) looking at the total no. of applicants joining the pool and the large no of ITAs expected.

 

[Asivad Anac]

Analysis for EE scores / ITAs/ draws for 2016. Please let me know if you find this logical/any issues in my understanding.

Every year CIC targets around 78,000 Principal applicants including PNP, CEC, and FSW. They launched EE in Jan 2015. They had a backlog of ~46,000 Principal applicants.

In 2015, considering similar no. of draws and ITAs each draw, they would have nearly 32,000 ITAs including PNP and CEC. So, the rest ITAs come out to be (78k minus 32k = 46k). Thus CIC will wrap up the previous inventory of applicants.

Now coming to 2016, considering the same no 78,000 - divided by 12 months - Each month should have 6k to 7k ITAs. Therefore, express entry scores have to go down.

Also, considering the mid year statistics, this year by end of December the score can go down to 440 and maximum 430. Next year 1st quarter end can see the score go down to 400 as well while by the end of 2016 - It would go as low as 300 (This could be the stable cut-off EE score in future years as well) looking at the total no. of applicants joining the pool and the large no of ITAs expected.

Unlikely to ever go down below 400 and here's why I think so.

The overall number of immigrant admissions have consistently been in the mid 200,000's for a while and that is unlikely to change in the medium term given the overall economic climate and general policy trends. Even if it does go up, it is unlikely to be more than a 10-20% jump in the medium term. 2/3rd of these admissions are from economic class and about 1/4th are set aside for family reunification. Though it doesn't explicitly say so, I am presuming that those 2/3rd (which includes about 50K FSW & FST, 22K CEC and 47K PNP) includes the spouses/common-law partners and dependent children of the PAs. Given that nearly half of the PNPs will be through EE in the medium term and considering an average family size of 2, that gives us a PA count through EE of about 48K (on the higher side).

If there are 2 draws per month and these numbers are equally distributed, that would be about 2000 ITAs per draw (again on the higher side). When you look at the pool composition (based on the mid-year report and making some simplifying assumptions on scoring patterns), one observes that the rough distribution in the pool is 70% (below 400), 25% between 401 and 449 and about 5% above 450. With an active pool size of even 30K, that is an estimated 7K people just between 401 and 449. At any given point in time. The math does itself.

 

[Ishneetd]

Unlikely to ever go down below 400 and here's why I think so.

The overall number of immigrant admissions have consistently been in the mid 200,000's for a while and that is unlikely to change in the medium term given the overall economic climate and general policy trends. Even if it does go up, it is unlikely to be more than a 10-20% jump in the medium term. 2/3rd of these admissions are from economic class and about 1/4th are set aside for family reunification. Though it doesn't explicitly say so, I am presuming that those 2/3rd (which includes about 50K FSW & FST, 22K CEC and 47K PNP) includes the spouses/common-law partners and dependent children of the PAs. Given that nearly half of the PNPs will be through EE in the medium term and considering an average family size of 2, that gives us a PA count through EE of about 48K (on the higher side).

If there are 2 draws per month and these numbers are equally distributed, that would be about 2000 ITAs per draw (again on the higher side). When you look at the pool composition (based on the mid-year report and making some simplifying assumptions on scoring patterns), one observes that the rough distribution in the pool is 70% (below 400), 25% between 401 and 449 and about 5% above 450. With an active pool size of even 30K, that is an estimated 7K people just between 401 and 449. At any given point in time. The math does itself.

I agree with you partly, but the numbers that you are considering for calculation are little skewed. The PA count for 2014 was - Skilled workers: 28,767; CEC: 14,198; Skilled trade: 62; PNP: 20,999. That means total PA were 64k while their spouse/CLP/children were (38,704 + 9,580 + 76 + 26,614) 75k.

Also, another problem with this calculation is that when we say an active pool size - 1. The active pool size will decrease as the no of ITAs will increase; 2. the 25% betwwen 401 and 449 - Once these people will start getting ITAs, the proportion will change, proably at that point 25% will be 380 and above; and it may further get to say 360 and above - In short, it will change as the people will be picked up from a lower cut-off, the % composition of the pool will keep changing

Therefore, I would say it must be 2,500 per draw at the least if not 3,000 per draw in EE 2016.

One more analogy - If you look at the hisorical immigration levels - Everybody with a graduation, decent IELTS score, and experience was able to get through to Canada - And still the backlog that they had was 1 year. So, with the same amount of immigration levels, how is it possible that now only 30% (or say 50%) of applicants will be able to pass through. It is not possible - They can possible eliminate the lower 20% of the segment - That would be below 320 or so - And that has to happen by the end of 2016 as immigration quotas will have to be filled.

 

[Jad77]

This is my assumption :

Since June 2015, the average of the cutoffs is going down by an average of 6 points per month.

At this trend, we can expect for October 2015, draws with an average of 449 points within a range of {443 to 455} and for December, we can also expect lower cutoffs within a range of {430, 442} or so,
That is my projection.

I think, that is a high probability, (eventhough PNP will be issued, the average cutoffs will still go down, because that was already the case in September).
(Also, psychologically, winter is coming, so they will be less people registering and entering the pool).

So, please stay optimistic for anyone, who is within this range. >+430, for this year.

This pattern will continue until mid-2016, with a long term threshold of 380-400...

Lets wait and see.


I am at 446 (so close and cross finger for the next draw!)

 

[Asivad Anac]

I agree with you partly, but the numbers that you are considering for calculation are little skewed. The PA count for 2014 was - Skilled workers: 28,767; CEC: 14,198; Skilled trade: 62; PNP: 20,999. That means total PA were 64k while their spouse/CLP/children were (38,704 + 9,580 + 76 + 26,614) 75k.

Also, another problem with this calculation is that when we say an active pool size - 1. The active pool size will decrease as the no of ITAs will increase; 2. the 25% betwwen 401 and 449 - Once these people will start getting ITAs, the proportion will change, proably at that point 25% will be 380 and above; and it may further get to say 360 and above - In short, it will change as the people will be picked up from a lower cut-off, the % composition of the pool will keep changing

Therefore, I would say it must be 2,500 per draw at the least if not 3,000 per draw in EE 2016.

One more analogy - If you look at the hisorical immigration levels - Everybody with a graduation, decent IELTS score, and experience was able to get through to Canada - And still the backlog that they had was 1 year. So, with the same amount of immigration levels, how is it possible that now only 30% (or say 50%) of applicants will be able to pass through. It is not possible - They can possible eliminate the lower 20% of the segment - That would be below 320 or so - And that has to happen by the end of 2016 as immigration quotas will have to be filled.

Where you're probably missing the point is that the pool is dynamic and it's steady state is 70/25/5. Each time there is a draw, the pool dynamics change dramatically on THAT day. And then people enter the pool to reset the pool to its equilibrium position all over again. Which explains why the cutoff falls sharply only when there are back-to-back draws. Because then there isn't enough time for the pool to have enough applicants to reset to its steady state.

If there are even just 20000 active applicants in the pool at ANY point in time, a draw cutoff 400+ would lead to nearly 5000 ITAs. And there is no reason to assume that there will be so few applicants in the pool at ANY point in time unless CIC does multiple back-to-back draws, which is even more unlikely.

 

[Ishneetd]

Where you're probably missing the point is that the pool is dynamic and it's steady state is 70/25/5. Each time there is a draw, the pool dynamics change dramatically on THAT day. And then people enter the pool to reset the pool to its equilibrium position all over again. Which explains why the cutoff falls sharply only when there are back-to-back draws. Because then there isn't enough time for the pool to have enough applicants to reset to its steady state.

If there are even just 20000 active applicants in the pool at ANY point in time, a draw cutoff 400+ would lead to nearly 5000 ITAs. And there is no reason to assume that there will be so few applicants in the pool at ANY point in time unless CIC does multiple back-to-back draws, which is even more unlikely.

Hmmm..I get your point. But, I am still very hopeful considering that in 2015 they are wrapping up the backlog of 46k FSW2014 and before applicants. So for 2016 since most part will be from EE, there will be an iincrease of 46K ITAs, which could mean a total of 6k ITAs per month pulling the score down.

Optimism is the need of the hour!!!