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EE Processing Time Calculator & General Statistics

tidelander

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Jan 7, 2015
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Express Entry has been out for 9 months already but there is still no detailed statistics available on it. I used data inputs from users of this forum and came up with 2 dashboards:
1. EE Processing Time Calculator.
How to use it. There are 3 parameters at the top. Pick category that you have applied under, current status of your application and date when your application moved to this status. The report will calculate how much time you have to wait before PPR. It also provides processing times distribution for other users who were with same status and how much they had to wait. There is also rejection summary in the end.
2. General statistics.
This dashboard has one parameter in the left upper corner (you can pick Category). First graph shows # Decisions per day. Note that it says Decisions and not PPR because decision can be negative (rejection) or positive (PPR). First graph (and other ones on this dashboard) include rejected cases.
Second graph Processing Time Distribution shows how Min/Avg/Max processing time has changed in the course of the year.



Here are some quick conclusions from the reports:
1. FSWP is the most popular category. However, it seemed like people who applied from outside of Canada got their cases processed faster than the people who apply from inside. So I separated FSWP applicants into FSWP Inside and FSWP Outside. Dashboard confirms that outsiders get their cases processed faster than insiders by approximately 25 days.
2. There were some lucky applicants in May and June who got their cases processed fast but in latest months July and August we see that processing time increased significantly for all categories. The reason might be that CIC is now backlogged with new EE applications and processing time might be increasing for next several months. However,
3. All of the cases are processed within advertised 180 days.
4. Chances of rejection decrease significantly once application goes ECAS In Process.
5. FST and PNP are not popular with EE. So unpopular that there is just not enough data to plot on both dashboards. So I had to remove PNP and FST from the reports. It actually would be nice if someone went through the forum threads and gathered more data for processing times. I've already spent around 20 hours on developing the dashboards and collecting data and I am already sick from scanning dozens of pages on the forum and reading other people profiles. More about how you can help to improve these reports below.



About the dataset itself.

I took March and April applicants spreadsheets from the forum and combined them together. Also I went through Rejections thread to collect more info on cases that were rejected.
The final spreadsheet has around 150 rows (cases) and contains only applicants who a) received PPR; b) were rejected.
People who have not received decision on their case are not included in the dataset.



How can you help to improve the dashboards?

1. Play with the reports and tell me what else would you like to see. What kind of reports is community looking for? I will develop them.
2. The main problem with the dataset is that there is not enough data. It would be nice if someone could go through May, June, July ... threads and collect data there. Here is the Excel file that is used as a source for the reports. Go download it, fill more data in, and send me. I will add new rows into the report.
 

raihan101eee

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very good research......helpful
 

ibejiopad

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Mar 28, 2015
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Nice effort. This is commendable, only that many would doubt the fact (from the tool) that Out-land FSWP applications get processed faster than inland FSWP and CEC applications. Reverse seems to be the case.

Nice effort though
 

dobes

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ibejiopad said:
Nice effort. This is commendable, only that many would doubt the fact (from the tool) that Out-land FSWP applications get processed faster than inland FSWP and CEC applications. Reverse seems to be the case.

Nice effort though
I think both things (that outland are processed faster than inland, and that inland SEEM to be processed faster) can be explained by CIC's own fact that, since a large majority of applicants so far have had LMIA, and since the majority of those are inland, something like 85% of people with an ITA (I forget the exact number, but it's in CIC's midyear report) are inland.

Great job - those are very easy to use and understand.
 

YamPower

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Not bad! It predicted - worst case - decision date of August 26 based on FSW outside and AOR or April 22.

In fact, I got ECAS decision made on August 27 (noticed just after midnight so it could have been August 26.)
 

Anya654

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I don't understand why this thread has been neglected :(. This is very good statistics with about 90% accuracy which the OP has obviously taken his time to compute. IMO it should be bumped to the top.
 

Duskyblue

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Wow, that's quite cool! I like my best case scenario... ;-)

But in the general statistics, it lists the shortest processing times for FSW Outland. I thought that was actually the slowest one?
 

Kucuy15

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This is awesome!
My best case scenario is overdue so I am hoping for average :D

Thank you for taking the time to do this. Most appreciate it!
 

AshesNdust

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Jan 4, 2015
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YamPower said:
Not bad! It predicted - worst case - decision date of August 26 based on FSW outside and AOR or April 22.

In fact, I got ECAS decision made on August 27 (noticed just after midnight so it could have been August 26.)
I tried it, already passed my best and average case. It's saying worst-case is Wednesday September 2nd. So, let's see if I break that one. Good luck on the hearing about your decision today!
 

Fitztorious

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Sep 3, 2013
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Wow this is really well done.

Interesting to see all the data plotted. From the data set it looks like I had the quickest CEC "Application Submitted" to "PPR" in just 66 days. I wonder why mine was processed so quickly.

I would have never expected FSW Outside be processed quicker than CEC. Some were processed in less than 60 days. Curious to see if this holds true as the data set grows bigger.
 

tidelander

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Jan 7, 2015
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Thank you guys for all the positive feedback :)

Duskyblue said:
Wow, that's quite cool! I like my best case scenario... ;-)

But in the general statistics, it lists the shortest processing times for FSW Outland. I thought that was actually the slowest one?
General Statistics is mostly about average processing times. For any category.
Only middle graph has shortest/average/longest.

AshesNdust said:
I tried it, already passed my best and average case. It's saying worst-case is Wednesday September 2nd. So, let's see if I break that one. Good luck on the hearing about your decision today!
The data set is not big. Only 150 rows (applications). So predictions are quite rough.
It's possible to make it more accurate if we add May, June, ... applicants.
 

purplesnow

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I'm already past my best and average too. Its saying my worst case is October 5th which would take me to just over 21 weeks of a processing time..
 

JB007

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This is just brilliant. Well done. I'd say it's highly accurate.As for me, I'm expecting by PPR around the 15th of Sept an dit says 10th Sept as average scenario :D (y)
 

tidelander

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Jan 7, 2015
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AshesNdust said:
I tried it, already passed my best and average case. It's saying worst-case is Wednesday September 2nd. So, let's see if I break that one. Good luck on the hearing about your decision today!
Actually adding May, June, July applicants won't make predictions more accurate.
The answer why you are past average and still no PPR is hidden in General Statistics, second graph. You see that processing times have been growing since July and are still growing. So if we wait one more month and then update the data set, we'll see that average processing time have increased.
I wrote about it in my first post:

2. There were some lucky applicants in May and June who got their cases processed fast but in latest months July and August we see that processing time increased significantly for all categories. The reason might be that CIC is now backlogged with new EE applications and processing time might be increasing for next several months.
I am in the same situation: my application is past best and average prediction and is approaching worst expected decision date.