EE Applicants with score 400 to 450 let's connect here

[spartanjsv]

There is 700 candidates per point, for example 700 people have score of 453, 700 of them have 454 etc. When you divide 3500 ITAs with 5 point drop since the last time cut off 458 to now 453) you get 700.

Nice. Thanks for taking time and explaining. All the best on your score.

 

[Pawshi]

Hey Astral, it was a six points drop (not five) from 459 to 453. 3500/6 it comes out to be 600 on each point. However, we all know that there would many candidates with much higher scores than 459 in this draw.

Fairly, we should consider 500 applicants on each point.

 

[rajkamalmohanram]

I hope you're right, I'd certainly take an ITA in Feb if I could get one. I'm still holding out hopes for that 446 to be on Feb 8th. I'm going to say another 3500 ITAs, with 446 cutoff! The good thing, is that this is also clearing out a path for others to receive PNPs. The more people that receive ITAs before the PNP programs become active again (such as OINP), the less competition there will be for those spots.

Well, first time since the dawn of EE, things are looking pretty optimistic for people with a score less than 450. Its a good thing. This will likely change the number of people applying for PNPs. However, the EE pool is getting ever more competitive by the minute. If IRCC (unfortunately) wants to keep the score 450+, then they might be willing to balance that by issuing a few ITAs less. This could happen and is a possibility (lets just hope it doesn't).

Good luck and all the very best!

 

[astralsource]

Hey Astral, it was a six points drop (not five) from 459 to 453. 3500/6 it comes out to be 600 on each point. However, we all know that there would many candidates with much higher scores than 459 in this draw.

Fairly, we should consider 500 applicants on each point.

Sorry my mistake, you are correct! But its close, as we go down there are more people per point so lets say 700 in worst case scenario!

 

[Pawshi]

Hey Raj,

Thank you for the note. But, why CIC will do that to keep the score above 450. Entire year in 2016, they kept on saying that they are proposing the changes, so that scores could drop as LMIA holders were eating up space in EE. Also, there were paper based applications. Now, both the things of past, the draw size has to be larger and scores would drop. Also, quotas have been increased. So, there is no valid and material reasons to hold the score above 450+. There are not many PNPs now as most of them were closed. Any new PNPs (Except) SINP, PEI or NB does not have significant volume in every draw. So without PNP, LMIAs and to meet the targets they have to continue with larger draw and scores have to come down.

Yes, if they want to manipulate and do something unfair then we really cant comment.

Thank you,
Pawshi

 

[rcharmed]

Hello!

My score is 414, any hope CRS it will ever come down to it?

 

[Badr]

There is 700 candidates per point, for example 700 people have score of 453, 700 of them have 454 etc. When you divide 3500 ITAs with 5 point drop since the last time cut off 458 to now 453) you get 700.

Actually it's 6 points. 584 candidates per point :'(

 

[Arslanellahi]

I am sitting at 444 right now and have just paid IQAS for my wife's evaluation. After successful evaluation, my score will bump to 454. I hope they follow similar trend of invites at least for next 2 months..

 

[rajkamalmohanram]

Hey Raj,

Thank you for the note. But, why CIC will do that to keep the score above 450. Entire year in 2016, they kept on saying that they are proposing the changes, so that scores could drop as LMIA holders were eating up space in EE. Also, there were paper based applications. Now, both the things of past, the draw size has to be larger and scores would drop. Also, quotas have been increased. So, there is no valid and material reasons to hold the score above 450+. There are not many PNPs now as most of them were closed. Any new PNPs (Except) SINP, PEI or NB does not have significant volume in every draw. So without PNP, LMIAs and to meet the targets they have to continue with larger draw and scores have to come down.

Yes, if they want to manipulate and do something unfair then we really cant comment.

Thank you,
Pawshi

Well, I don't think it is very likely to happen. I was just saying that is a probability. That's all.

To crunch some numbers, check the link below -

http://www.cicnews.com/2016/10/immigration-plan-2017-canada-increased-immigrants-through-economic-family-sponsorship-programs-108621.html

So, the total number of economic immigrants this year would be 172,000. Let's do some math.

Total number of expected immigrants = 172,000
PNP = 51,000
Qubec Skilled Workers = 29,000

So, for FSW + CEC + FST, the quota left is 172,000 - 51,000 - 29,000 = 92,000

So, approximately 7666 ITAs per month is required for FSW + FST +CEC. Assuming 60% of the provincial nominees come through EE, 30,600 nominations are issued through the EE system that will lead to an ITA (2550 ITAs per month).

FSW + CEC + FST ITAs to be issued/month = 7666
PNP based ITAs/month = 2250

So, on an average (assuming there are 2 draws in a month), 4958 ITAs have to be issued PER DRAW to achieve this target (9916 ITAs a month). So, from now on, I suppose there will be more than 2 draws per month on a regular basis because if you split this into 3 draws, then there has to be ~3305 invites per draw(which is a close match to the draw size we've been seeing lately).

**A total of 9744 ITAs have been issued in Jan 2017 alone (close to the 9916 ITAs/month we arrived at above)**

 

[Pawshi]

Awesome Raj...hats off to you. Your calculations prove the point I was making. Even that if we feel that score will not drop then there is some thing wrong in the system which does not work on the math.....may be a manipulative system.

Your calculations shows that I will get the ITA by March/April 2017.

 

[Badr]

Well, I don't think it is very likely to happen. I was just saying that is a probability. That's all.

To crunch some numbers, check the link below -

http://www.cicnews.com/2016/10/immigration-plan-2017-canada-increased-immigrants-through-economic-family-sponsorship-programs-108621.html

So, the total number of economic immigrants this year would be 172,000. Let's do some math.

Total number of expected immigrants = 172,000
PNP = 51,000
Qubec Skilled Workers = 29,000

So, for FSW + CEC + FST, the quota left is 172,000 - 51,000 - 29,000 = 92,000

So, approximately 7666 ITAs per month is required for FSW + FST +CEC. Assuming 60% of the provincial nominees come through EE, 30,600 nominations are issued through the EE system that will lead to an ITA (2550 ITAs per month).

FSW + CEC + FST ITAs to be issued/month = 7666
PNP based ITAs/month = 2250

So, on an average (assuming there are 2 draws in a month), 4958 ITAs have to be issued PER DRAW to achieve this target (9916 ITAs a month). So, from now on, I suppose there will be more than 2 draws per month on a regular basis because if you split this into 3 draws, then there has to be ~3305 invites per draw(which is a close match to the draw size we've been seeing lately).

**A total of 9744 ITAs have been issued in Jan 2017 alone (close to the 9916 ITAs/month we arrived at above)**

I wish I could give you +1, but i can't :'(

 

[rajkamalmohanram]

Awesome Raj...hats off to you. Your calculations prove the point I was making. Even that if we feel that score will not drop then there is some thing wrong in the system which does not work on the math.....may be a manipulative system.

Your calculations shows that I will get the ITA by March/April 2017.

This is a rough calculation but I sincerely hope that you get your ITA soon !

All the very best!

 

[astralsource]

Well, I don't think it is very likely to happen. I was just saying that is a probability. That's all.

To crunch some numbers, check the link below -

http://www.cicnews.com/2016/10/immigration-plan-2017-canada-increased-immigrants-through-economic-family-sponsorship-programs-108621.html

So, the total number of economic immigrants this year would be 172,000. Let's do some math.

Total number of expected immigrants = 172,000
PNP = 51,000
Qubec Skilled Workers = 29,000

So, for FSW + CEC + FST, the quota left is 172,000 - 51,000 - 29,000 = 92,000

So, approximately 7666 ITAs per month is required for FSW + FST +CEC. Assuming 60% of the provincial nominees come through EE, 30,600 nominations are issued through the EE system that will lead to an ITA (2550 ITAs per month).

FSW + CEC + FST ITAs to be issued/month = 7666
PNP based ITAs/month = 2250

So, on an average (assuming there are 2 draws in a month), 4958 ITAs have to be issued PER DRAW to achieve this target (9916 ITAs a month). So, from now on, I suppose there will be more than 2 draws per month on a regular basis because if you split this into 3 draws, then there has to be ~3305 invites per draw(which is a close match to the draw size we've been seeing lately).

**A total of 9744 ITAs have been issued in Jan 2017 alone (close to the 9916 ITAs/month we arrived at above)**

I am trying to do this calculation the whole morning, many thanks<3

 

[egoo45]

Well, I don't think it is very likely to happen. I was just saying that is a probability. That's all.

To crunch some numbers, check the link below -

http://www.cicnews.com/2016/10/immigration-plan-2017-canada-increased-immigrants-through-economic-family-sponsorship-programs-108621.html

So, the total number of economic immigrants this year would be 172,000. Let's do some math.

Total number of expected immigrants = 172,000
PNP = 51,000
Qubec Skilled Workers = 29,000

So, for FSW + CEC + FST, the quota left is 172,000 - 51,000 - 29,000 = 92,000

So, approximately 7666 ITAs per month is required for FSW + FST +CEC. Assuming 60% of the provincial nominees come through EE, 30,600 nominations are issued through the EE system that will lead to an ITA (2550 ITAs per month).

FSW + CEC + FST ITAs to be issued/month = 7666
PNP based ITAs/month = 2250

So, on an average (assuming there are 2 draws in a month), 4958 ITAs have to be issued PER DRAW to achieve this target (9916 ITAs a month). So, from now on, I suppose there will be more than 2 draws per month on a regular basis because if you split this into 3 draws, then there has to be ~3305 invites per draw(which is a close match to the draw size we've been seeing lately).

**A total of 9744 ITAs have been issued in Jan 2017 alone (close to the 9916 ITAs/month we arrived at above)**

Hello Raj,

The quota for the three streams FSW + CEC + FST is actually 73,700 not 92,000 (http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2016-10-31.asp)

Also do not forget that not every ITA is equal to 1 immigrant. There are people who decline their invitations and there are invitations that include more than one migrant. As far as I know spouses and dependent children also eat at that quota. I think it might be safe to assume that each ITA is the equivalent of 1.5 immigrants. (I don't think we have enough evidence to make a very educated guess on the actual number of ITA vs PRs issued). The only data that I see that testifies to something similar is from the year end report of 2015: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-year-end-2015.asp

As indicated in the table below, IRCC received 21,562 applications from candidates who were invited to apply for permanent residence during the invitation rounds, which represent 37,424 applicants and their family members.

Therefore:

For FSW+CEC+FST the number of ITA per month should be 73,700/(12*1.5) = 4094
For PNP the number of ITA per month should be 30600/(12*1.5) = 1700

So I would expect the number of draws to be twice a month with roughly 2900 ITA.

I think this ramp up is temporary in order to catch up on lost time. They were working hard at the last half of 2016 to clear pre EE backlog. I expect that the applications then required far more processing and therefore time consuming. So they are behind on their quota for 2017, but with the rate they are going I expect them to catch up pretty quickly.

I would be happy for everyone if I am wrong since Canada is great, but that's what the numbers tell me. Please let me know what you think!

 

[astralsource]

Hello Raj,

The quota for the three streams FSW + CEC + FST is actually 73,700 not 92,000 (http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2016-10-31.asp)

Also do not forget that not every ITA is equal to 1 immigrant. There are people who decline their invitations and there are invitations that include more than one migrant. As far as I know spouses and dependent children also eat at that quota. I think it might be safe to assume that each ITA is the equivalent of 1.5 immigrants. (I don't think we have enough evidence to make a very educated guess on the actual number of ITA vs PRs issued). The only data that I see that testifies to something similar is from the year end report of 2015: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-year-end-2015.asp

Therefore:

For FSW+CEC+FST the number of ITA per month should be 73,700/(12*1.5) = 4094
For PNP the number of ITA per month should be 30600/(12*1.5) = 1700

So I would expect the number of draws to be twice a month with roughly 2900 ITA.

I think this ramp up is temporary in order to catch up on lost time. They were working hard at the last half of 2016 to clear pre EE backlog. I expect that the applications then required far more processing and therefore time consuming. So they are behind on their quota for 2017, but with the rate they are going I expect them to catch up pretty quickly.

I would be happy for everyone if I am wrong since Canada is great, but that's what the numbers tell me. Please let me know what you think!

Skilled (FSW, FST, CEC) 73,700 yes there was a misscalculation there, and in Raj's link is written 172,500 too much unreliabler sources, we should read only cic