Draw expectation for Today

[nshakelly]

Looking at the trend (since start of Express Entry system), cut off scores have been fluctuating drastically. Although the last three times the cut off difference has been pretty close.

Lets hope for the best folks and wish majority of us get invited Cheers

 

[kashish948]

the draw usually happens at 8pm right?

 

[JoacRy]

the draw usually happens at 8pm right?

No, going on the approximate times of draws in the last 6 months they have been roughly between 11:00 am - 15:00 pm.

 

[hellosid]

Seems like, there was no draw today.. We all have to wait for the next Wednesday I suppose.. :-(

 

[Asivad Anac]

he contradicts his own theory too. he said they will make a draw when they get 1500 app. above 450 , than immediately he says the scores would go down to 430 by March. he wants to be true both the ways. if scores don't go below 450 he will say I told you. if the scores go below 450 he will say I told you .

if u give him link to prove ur statement he will say this is link of third party and he himself dont have a link where it mention the score will go down upto 430 by march. not even third party link. after all God is not answerable.

You seem to have trouble locating this page or understanding it's contents ---> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reason

I don't deal in definitive fortunetelling when it comes to CIC draws. I prefer dealing in reasoning and logic.

Cutoff scores are 'expected' to fall when the backlog is cleared. However, because of the composition of the pool and Canada's immigration requirements in the medium-term, cutoff will fall gradually and is never 'expected' to fall below 430 ever. CIC's draw strategy since mid 2015 does 'appear' to be this - Have 2 draws in a month of roughly ~1500 ITAs each and conduct the draw whenever there are more than 1500 applicants available at a cutoff of 450 or above.

 

[quarko]

Have 2 draws in a month of roughly ~1500 ITAs each and conduct the draw whenever there are more than 1500 applicants available at a cutoff of 450 or above.

I think, there is an inherent problem in design of EE, which is shaping the outcome and frequency of draws. The problem is having to grab whole group of applicants sitting at specific score. I do not believe they have any reason to stop at 450 or any other score, it's just that there are so many people sitting with 450, that they simply do not fit into one whole draw. Whenever they see that they hit that wall of people - they skip a week and try again.

However, if the demand for immigrants is higher in 2016, they could be forced to make larger draws to hit though that wall of people. So, I would not be surprised to see a wait of 2-3 weeks and then one huge draw of 3000-5000 applicants at once.

 

[AnnaBG]

I think, there is an inherent problem in design of EE, which is shaping the outcome and frequency of draws. The problem is having to grab whole group of applicants sitting at specific score. I do not believe they have any reason to stop at 450 or any other score, it's just that there are so many people sitting with 450, that they simply do not fit into one whole draw. Whenever they see that they hit that wall of people - they skip a week and try again.

However, if the demand for immigrants is higher in 2016, they could be forced to make larger draws to hit though that wall of people. So, I would not be surprised to see a wait of 2-3 weeks and then one huge draw of 3000-5000 applicants at once.

I don't think you are right ...
There are approximately 1500 people in each draw so if the score in this draw does not fall under 453 lets say this is not because the group of 450 is too large but because the limit of 1500 people is reached ..

 

[Asivad Anac]

if u say its logic and if others say it is rubbish.

Not really. If it is logical, it is logical. If it isn't, it isn't. Doesn't depend on who states the logic.

Look at that Wiki page again and again before you comprehend that logic isn't the exclusive preserve of 1 person. And that the antonyms of logic include irrationality and incoherence.

 

[Asivad Anac]

I think, there is an inherent problem in design of EE, which is shaping the outcome and frequency of draws. The problem is having to grab whole group of applicants sitting at specific score. I do not believe they have any reason to stop at 450 or any other score, it's just that there are so many people sitting with 450, that they simply do not fit into one whole draw. Whenever they see that they hit that wall of people - they skip a week and try again.

However, if the demand for immigrants is higher in 2016, they could be forced to make larger draws to hit though that wall of people. So, I would not be surprised to see a wait of 2-3 weeks and then one huge draw of 3000-5000 applicants at once.

As I've observed earlier elsewhere, there is nothing special about 450. It is a derived number based on the pool composition AND the fact that CIC makes 2 draws/month thereby granting 3000 ITAs each month. If they doubled that number overnight, there will be a new cutoff barrier. They're unlikely to double that number overnight though. When they do increase the number of ITAs/month, the cutoff will fall. It will fall gradually at first because there are a LOT of people between 440 and 449. Over a period of time, the cutoff will settle at a new minimum based on the pool composition and number of ITAs/month. That new cutoff is unlikely to be below 430 - this assumption is driven on an understanding of pool dynamics (including the probabilities of people being a certain age, married, holding 2 or more degrees, FWE & CWE and CLB 7-9) and the fact that Canada is unlikely to send 15,000 ITAs/month at any point of time, they are likely to limit it to ~5000 ITAs/month.

 

[perfectSkilledMigrant]

I agree with Asivad, I do not think they will increase ITAs, they are already struggling to keep the "6 months processing time promise" and they cannot increase the workload as most people getting ITAs tend to send applications within 2 weeks maximum because everyone is ready ahead of time with his/her documents. As for the cutoff score, it needs to logically reflect qualifications that fit the minimum of 67 points and that means it cannot really be below ~420 ...

 

[anky2015]

I am also gonna back Asivad's theory completely. CIC will only touch 450 but will not go below it for sure at least for next couple of months. The reason for this is since candidates (especially who are above 400) are getting options from Ontario and SSK PNP skilled worker stream to bump up their scores. Also other candidates are being supported by LMIA's and other streams of all the province's PNP. So, in every 1-2 weeks there is enough influx of candidates with increased scores due to 600+ points received through aforementioned channels. Thus, CIC would come up with a draw only when they have at least 1300-1500 people standing at 450 n above.
This also helps the immigration system in canada to earn money. Coz if CIC would lower the score to 410-420 then people in the 400-450 bracket would not even apply for PNP then. Thus, OINP would be losing significant money. Therefore, CIC will strive to keep the CRS at or above 450 for at least couple of months from now.

 

[bestofluck]

I think, there is an inherent problem in design of EE, which is shaping the outcome and frequency of draws. The problem is having to grab whole group of applicants sitting at specific score. I do not believe they have any reason to stop at 450 or any other score, it's just that there are so many people sitting with 450, that they simply do not fit into one whole draw. Whenever they see that they hit that wall of people - they skip a week and try again.

However, if the demand for immigrants is higher in 2016, they could be forced to make larger draws to hit though that wall of people. So, I would not be surprised to see a wait of 2-3 weeks and then one huge draw of 3000-5000 applicants at once.

you are absolutely right. No assumptions or dynamics of the forum members govern the CIC draw. They have said clearly in 23 rd summit that they will invite more people. this means either they increase number of draw or increase number of invitees. lets hope scores to drop down slowly.