Better-to-wait fits your scenario. For practical reasons, including the likelihood of non-routine processing resulting in a lengthy processing timeline if you apply sooner than later.
That said, there will remain a significant risk of non-routine processing even if you wait longer to make the PR card application given the extent to which you not only are currently
cutting-it-close (living outside Canada more than IN Canada, and at best only returning to Canada very recently after a lengthy absence) but will be
cutting-it-close for the next two years (will explain below, even though this should be readily apparent).
Nonetheless, at the least, it would be prudent to wait until you have clearly gotten settled here and you are apparently PERMANENTLY living here now. Appearances can, and often will influence how things go. If it appears you came to Canada perhaps just long enough to get a new PR card, being referred to Secondary Review (which can take many months, sometimes nearly a year or so) would not be a surprise.
For Clarification:
The PR card's expiration date ONLY matters for two things:
-- After the PR card expires a PR cannot board a flight outside Canada that is heading to Canada (unless they get a PR Travel Document or a new PR card)
-- an application for a new PR card is not timely (and will be returned) if it is made more than nine months prior to the date the PR card expires
The day the PR card expires is NOT relevant when calculating if the PR meets the Residency Obligation. RO compliance is what matters.
So, to be clear:
To meet the eligibility requirements for a PR card application, the PR should be in compliance with the Residency Obligation on the date the application is made.
For purposes of calculating RO compliance, the date the PR card is issued does NOT matter. It is NOT relevant.
Likewise, for purposes of calculating RO compliance, the date the PR card will expire does NOT matter. It is NOT relevant.
The interactive PDF form for making a PR card application is a good tool for calculating RO compliance based on entering a COMPLETE and ACCURATE travel history in question 5.5. This can be used for hypothetical future scenarios. As long as the total number of days outside Canada is not more than 1095 days, when the travel history is completely and accurately filled in, the PR is in compliance with the RO.
Prior to the fifth year anniversary of the date the PR landed (again, this is NOT based on date the PR card was issued or when it expires), a PR is in RO compliance as long as they have not been outside Canada for more than 1095 days since landing . . . even if they have not yet been IN Canada 730 days.
You say "
but I am not meeting the 730 days RO when I apply for renewal" even though it appears you actually are meeting the RO, in that you have not been outside Canada more than 1095 days since the date you landed.
Again, let's be clear, here, if you are not meeting the RO,
there is NO question, NO doubt, that it is NOT a good idea to make a PR card application. Not a good idea to leave Canada either. Best to do neither, to not make a PR card application and not leave Canada, UNLESS and UNTIL you are in compliance with the RO, and even then be sure to NOT go outside Canada for so long that you fail to continue meeting the RO.
However, it appears you do currently meet the RO. So that is not an issue, at least so long as you stay in Canada enough to continue meeting the RO.
Reminder: During the first five years after landing, a PR does NOT need to be in Canada 730 days to be in compliance with the RO as long as the PR has not been outside Canada more than 1095 days during this time. As long as the PR is in compliance with the RO, it is OK to make a PR card application.
Just because it would be OK to make a PR card application (there is no risk doing this will trigger inadmissibility proceedings) does not answer the
WHEN to do it question. This is a far more complicated question for which there is no for-sure answer and any answer depends a lot on the facts and circumstances in the individual case.
I cannot offer much about when it is best to make the application except the obvious, do not apply unless and not until being in RO compliance, and otherwise to reiterate the conventional wisdom in this forum, that waiting long enough to apply based on days actually present in Canada is the safe approach, and to note that an application for a new PR card shortly after arriving in Canada after an absence of years will be at significantly higher risk for substantive non-routine processing resulting in lengthy delays in actually getting a new PR card. As I said, given your very recent return to Canada (and especially so if you are not here yet but planning to come), this fits a better-to-wait scenario.
Explanation Re Cutting-it-Close Continuing For Two Years:
You may already understand this. But many have the mistaken idea that a new PR card would restart the RO calculation clock. If you understand that the counting of days IN Canada does not start over when a new PR card is issued, and understand how the arithmetic works, no need to read this explanation.
How the arithmetic works, just as an example, is that if you STAY in Canada all of 2025, the number of days you have credit for toward meeting the RO will not change, it will stay the same, because for every day you are here in 2025 the corresponding day back in 2020 will no longer count.
You are currently at the maximum credit toward RO compliance you will have for the next two years. Any absences in the meantime will reduce how many days credit you have. You do not have much of a margin to work with, estimating it to be around 90 to 100 days, or not much more at most.
Right now you have credit for all days IN Canada since landing, plus all days left on the calendar until the fifth year anniversary of landing in October 2024. So between now and that anniversary, your total RO credit will remain the same, but ONLY if you STAY in Canada. If you leave, that margin will decrease by however many days you are outside Canada.
If, just as an example, if on the fifth year anniversary of your landing date, in October, you have a total of 820 days credit toward RO compliance, that margin will NOT increase until sometime in April 2026. If you go outside Canada between now and then, before April 2026, the total days credit you will have will decrease by however many days you are outside Canada.