Honestly, to each his own. What I know is obviously people like to remain optimistic, but being naive doesn't help guys.
Congratulations to the one who got charged in recent days, I am sure you guys are 29th december applicants. I surely do hope the letter received today from CIC is more of a clerical error than a final nail in the coffin. For the sake of the applicant whose file has been returned, I hope it was not his hard luck.
Here's a detailed elucidation: This guy whose file has been returned, mode of payment was DD. It is obvious that the turn around time for DD is more than CC. Also, CIC would not issue a PER till the time fees has been successfully received by them.
Ones who paid by CC got debited for the fee sooner than the ones who decided to pay by DD. In my opinion, that may have been the deciding factor for the applicants whose files reached on 29 Dec.
Please note that there are people who paid by DD around 17 dec or later dates who have not been charged so far. 10-14 days is the lag between realization of payment via CC or DD. Think about this, people are wondering about when the file was reached. If the file reached in November with an expired or incorrect draft, would they issue you PER and subtract a number from the 25k quota? NO!!
When did CIC realise the application fee is another dynamic. This is all a calculates assumption, I may be wrong, but as of now, ones with DD payment on or after 29 Dec atleast seem to be done with.