Crs score 445 to 450 any chances this year or by 2020?

[ammad88]

@ammad88 thats great so even if we see next 5 to 7 draws all people will be removed from 450+ or only few would be left then score has to come down below 450 right?

I am inclined to think so. YES. Even though new joiners will be coming in, but I presume the overall scores will drop down below 450 and most probably till 440 +/- 1.

 

[khush2canada]

Seeing about 7,300 450+ on 2nd August, and 18 days have passed since then, it could be well over 10,000 by now.
If the number of ITAs goes up to around 3900-4000 in the coming draws and biweekly at that, you'll see your ITA in 5 to 6 draws. At 3600, it could take 10 draws, and I don't know if 10 will happen in 2019 or extend into 2020.
Any skipped or late draw will raise the bar.
Unfortunately at 461(TBD), I am skeptical too as I need it to happen in September.

@rajapanesar Sir thanks for the info so if i talk about 2020 then i guess it would be around 445 to 450 correct once most of the people are out from 450+?

 

[rajapanesar]

@rajapanesar Sir thanks for the info so if i talk about 2020 then i guess it would be around 445 to 450 correct once most of the people are out from 450+?

Yes, also end of the year has always seen an increase in number of ITAs, so it could be December. January draw is usually late because of winter holidays and hence raises the CRS.
Also, October has Halloween which also effects the draw if it falls in the same week as the festival.

 

[rajapanesar]

unfortunately, I don't see any chance for 445-450 except Province nomination

Umeed par duniya kayam hai mere bhai.

 

[khush2canada]

unfortunately, I don't see any chance for 445-450 except Province nomination

@facethereality thanks for the input,
i have seen you put some of the most discouraging posts on this forum but i am ready to accept this but can you read the previous comments and analyze as we guess it can come down to around 448 mark.

If not you can mention how you came to conclusion that in 2020 it will not come down.

Thanks

 

[khush2canada]

Umeed par duniya kayam hai mere bhai.

@rajapanesar Thanks Paji

 

[khush2canada]

Please keep in mind the trend of last few years ~

2017 - mostly about CRS 41x-43x range
2018 - mostly CRS 44x range
2019 - mostly CRS 45x-46x range (one draw with 438 only on January)

You see once they achieve a new higher interval, it is hard to go back to the previous level except for b2b draw.

CIC remain at 45x this year and now they even try to maintain above 46x level (they purposely skip a draw last time to pump from 459 to 466)

Please keep in mind that I am not discouraging anyone, I am only stating the fact that people hate to hear (Please blame CIC, If CIC made the score to 42x, I can't even exist anymore right?)

@facethereality Gr8 nice to hear that. Lets see what it comes up to.
Also can you let us know if there are not many people from 450+ range in a situation in comming months then we hope it obviosuly needs to come down. Correct?

 

[rajapanesar]

there is google translator installed on my browser anyway but not playing a childish game here lol

Please try to earn more respect in Canada, always hearing people speak their own language on the street and not trying to adapt Canadian life here

If you cut off your roots, your demise in close.
But thanks for your concern.

PS: I love my mother tongue, and I am very adapt at English. Conversing in Canada won't be a hindrance for me.

 

[khush2canada]

I am inclined to think so. YES. Even though new joiners will be coming in, but I presume the overall scores will drop down below 450 and most probably till 440 +/- 1.

@ammad88 i really hope your words will come true.

 

[khush2canada]

450 - 459 backlog is crazy and accumulating since May ~

Everyone expected the score to drop from 459 to 458 in last draw (even this was my expectation too), but CIC delayed a draw for only 5 days and it jumped to 466 by 7 points. You can see how crazy the pool is and how many talented people are coming.

I am not gonna say more discourage thing, someone will reply foreign language again lol

you are smart and you can judge my word yourself.

Thanks !! Lets us see what will happen

 

[rajapanesar]

440 to 460 are considering PNP options too, that's why the pool is not growing that fast. We don't see a huge backlog in that. 6800 odd upto 2 Aug is not a great number of candidates.
The only thing that's killing it is irregular draws, otherwise the 450+ pool would have been clear until now, or worst case, be in lower 450s.

 

[khush2canada]

440 to 460 are considering PNP options too, that's why the pool is not growing that fast. We don't see a huge backlog in that. 6800 odd upto 2 Aug is not a great number of candidates.
The only thing that's killing it is irregular draws, otherwise the 450+ pool would have been clear until now, or worst case, be in lower 450s.

@rajapanesar Absolutely Simple maths it is !!!! if everything is transparent in this system, Simple formula if backlog is less then score has to come down.

 

[khush2canada]

When they consider PNP options, they will get 600 points which drag up the distribution

and you should know how many OINP issued for the last few months

@facethereality Thats what were discussing from initial comments Sir, it can be +-1500 for PNP as well and not all accept, so we are saying lets give another 5 to 8 draws as well it will surely clear most backlog then the score has to reduce.

So simple even if we have 8000 people from 450+ and we give another 8 draws to them , most backlog would be cleared

 

[khush2canada]

hey DRAW is out

457 wow haha

@facethereality @rajapanesar @hammad88 See what hope is , where as others were predicting in some post it would be 465 or +-2

 

[khush2canada]

but now I am concern how CIC approach in next draw

will they keep it 2 weeks or conduct a 3 weeks gap ~ base on past experience, they will do a 3 weeks gap after the b2b draw

Lets See man!! you keep chill now