I decided to write this post to address some people's confusion, misplaced convictions, and frustrations. In a nutshell, CRS score may not continue to be lowered over time as some optimistic applicants wish.
CRS cut-off score is merely a reflection of the "supply and demand system" of the Express Entry(EE) pool. Thus it can be understood as a market prevailing price:
The above is very easy to understand for most people. Thus, it is a common conviction that as the annual quota number for EE increases, the CRS cut-off score will inevitably decrease. A variant of such conviction is, for instance, the average CRS cut-off score in 2019 will be lower than the number in 2018.
However, the key phrase, as in almost all economic model, is ceteris paribus. Other things almost never are equal in practice.
So it is always important to ask what can wreck the model. The simple answer is the demands, very competitive applicants, could be even larger to overwhelm the moderately increased quota number.
I can think at least several sources of such very competitive applicants
In summary, the CRS cut-off score may not continue to be lowered over time. I would not be shocked to see the cut-off score even increase moderately over time.
All the above discussion have not even touched the possibility of a decreased quota due to elections or economic downturn.
Please be prepared accordingly.
CRS cut-off score is merely a reflection of the "supply and demand system" of the Express Entry(EE) pool. Thus it can be understood as a market prevailing price:
- Ceteris paribus, a higher supply of competitive goods drives down the price
- Ceteris paribus, a higher demand for competitive goods drives up the price.
The above is very easy to understand for most people. Thus, it is a common conviction that as the annual quota number for EE increases, the CRS cut-off score will inevitably decrease. A variant of such conviction is, for instance, the average CRS cut-off score in 2019 will be lower than the number in 2018.
However, the key phrase, as in almost all economic model, is ceteris paribus. Other things almost never are equal in practice.
So it is always important to ask what can wreck the model. The simple answer is the demands, very competitive applicants, could be even larger to overwhelm the moderately increased quota number.
I can think at least several sources of such very competitive applicants
- As the regulation, the social environment and the current administration in the USA become more unfriendly to high skilled workers, some of these workers in the U.S.A. would join the EE pool. A substantial minority if not a majority of them is very competitive and can get a score above 450 without much difficulty.
- For largely political reasons, certain areas such as Hong Kong and may see an increased emigration. Some of them are very competitive in term of CRS score.
- The number of Americans who tries to move to Canada has been rising due to some reasons. Some of them are also very competitive in terms of CRS score.
In summary, the CRS cut-off score may not continue to be lowered over time. I would not be shocked to see the cut-off score even increase moderately over time.
All the above discussion have not even touched the possibility of a decreased quota due to elections or economic downturn.
Please be prepared accordingly.
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