The scores have to go down below 450. But how much, no one knows. Where would it stop, no one knows. The lowest score was 450. It was almost 15 months back in Sept/Oct 2015. The difference between those time and today are following -
1. Increased quota of economic immigrant by 22% in 2017 (From 58400 in 2016 to 71700 in 2017) 2000 of Atlantic figures are not included. Refer any site for the immigration targets to validate. (Refer CIC site http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2016-10-31.asp)
2. Paper based applications prior to 2015 is coming to an end. There will not much length in the queue who applied before the start of the express entry in 2015. So, it is stated categorically in the 2017 that "as a majority of admissions in 2017 are expected to come from Express Entry."
3. LMIA fatness has been removed. In everydraw there was a good % of LMIA based candidates who had poor human capital, but with 600 LMIA points, they were ahead of all of us. That fatness has been removed.
4. Starting March 2017, there would be less number of the PNP applicants in the draw because of following reason -
4a) As OINP would finish the PNP decision of all the cases received before March 2016. There would not be the big numbers with new PNP. When they restart again with Human Capital Priorities, it will take atleast 6 months for the decision.
4b) Nova Scotia Express Entry is closed for quite sometime
4c) and so many others.
5. The point is that PNP applicants in express entry would not eat much of the space in each draw. Also, PNP nominated applicants does not eat the economic immigrant quote. They do have their own PNP quota.
With all the five points above, it appears to me that this trend towards lower CRS with same volume of ITA would continue for this year. Yes, there may be a possibility of any unexpected and last minute surprises.
But, last few draws have really given a decent hope to stay alive in the boat. I am in the queue with 434.
Thank you.