At the risk of playing like a broken record (vinyl discs played on a turntable, which I've heard are making a comeback, making me feel sad about leaving behind my fairly substantial collection, as I did during a move two decades ago in my later middle-aged years):
Generally how long it has been
IS NOT EVIDENCE OF A DELAY. Unless it has been a way, way longer timeline than most are whining about in this forum.
A year ago, or so, most routinely processed applications were taking eight to twelve months to be processed. MOST. Even though MANY were only taking four to six months.
That timeline, which is still reflected in IRCC's current information (referring to twelve months), is PAST TENSE. HISTORY.
Notwithstanding more than a few applicants still seeing relatively fast timelines since the implementation of the Bill C-6 3/5 rules, that timeline is probably the best most current applicants will see, while many more are quite likely to see at least a somewhat longer timeline.
There is NO hint, none at all, based on the timeline, an application is stalled or delayed, UNLESS:
-- There is NO AOR within three to four months of the date the courier's records show the application delivered to CPC-Sydney
-- The application does not have IP status within five to seven months after AOR
-- The applicant has not been scheduled for the PI Interview and (as applicable) test within ten or twelve months after date the courier reports delivery of the application to CPC-Sydney
-- The applicant has not been scheduled for the Oath within 12 to 14 months after date application delivered to CPC-Sydney or within six to eight months of the PI interview date and test passed
All of these are subject to getting longer, especially the last, the time between date application delivered, or test, and the oath.
All of these are subject to any additional (typically referred to as non-routine) processing along the way (impact of non-routine step varies greatly; from very little to a modest impact for FP request if FPs timely submitted; anticipate a significantly longer to a much longer timeline if there are residency related requests for additional documentation; among other side trips).
Of course there is a "
POSSIBILITY" an application has been lost . . . or is in effect stuck between actions and not in a queue for further action. It is,
however,
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY an application has been lost. It is
VERY UNLIKELY the application is otherwise in effect stuck between actions and not in a queue for further action.
Sure, these happen.
RARELY. And even if an application is seemingly lost or hung up in some way, such as waiting on an action for which the application is not in queue, the odds are very high that IRCC will nonetheless,
in effect FIND the application, and the application will return to a normal, ordinary processing track without intervention by the applicant, and probably sooner (or at least roughly as soon) as any intervening effort by the applicant might generate.
But sure, there is a "
POSSIBILITY" an application has been lost . . . It happens. . . . There is, however, a comparable or even bigger possibility, sometime before getting to the oath, that the applicant will be falsely arrested for a crime the applicant had nothing to do with. And a far bigger possibility the applicant will, prior to getting to the oath, be involved in an automobile crash resulting in serious injury. All sorts of
POSSIBILITIES loom in our lives. That's why people foolishly buy lottery tickets. Playing against the odds.
Citizenship applications are not akin to buying a lottery ticket. They are, however, processed by a big bureaucracy, one of Canada's biggest bureaucracies (perhaps only CRA is bigger). Bureaucracies are what bureaucracies do.
Hint: they are not known for speed.
Yeah, bureaucracy processing tends to suck. Becoming a Canadian citizen, in contrast, is very good.
Like a cold rain all day on a summer holiday. Versus, a sunny not too hot day at the lake.
In the meantime, spread sheet reports are ONLY good for getting a very, very broad idea of what the POSSIBLE range in the processing timeline is. They offer almost NO insight into how long an application is LIKELY to take. AND
NO information about how long any particular applicant's timeline will be.
They can offer some insight into what the range is likely to be for most routinely processed applicants, subject to all sorts of caveats; not the least is the huge caveat looming over applications made since October 11, 2017, the rather too-likely prospect of IRCC getting bogged down with the large volume of applications in process.
As for what the RANGE is likely to be for most routinely processed applicants, subject to all sorts of caveats, for any given applicant most can anticipate a RANGE that is
TWO to THREE TIMES as long as the faster timelines being reported.
Example: if there are 100 applicants accurately reporting timelines for October 2017 applications, and ten or so reported taking the oath within four to six months (oath in March or April of this year), other October applicants can anticipate taking the oath sometime between July or August this year, up to, perhaps,
January or so next year. Again, subject to this going longer given the surge in number of applications.
This may suck, like a particularly bitterly cold winter day. But for the vast majority it is not because of any out-of-the-norm or non-routine processing, or the application getting set aside or
lost. It is what it is. There are TENS of THOUSANDS of you in this scenario.
I do not go into this to throw a wet blanket on the party. I do it because the climate here obsessively and excessively elevates anxiety about the timeline. Anxiety is pain for most people. Anxiety about the citizenship application processing timeline is UNNECESSARY anxiety. Thus unnecessary pain. The advice to RELAX, to CHILL, is about tamping down flames of unrealistic expectations, to help the vast majority realize there is NO REASON TO WORRY, no reason to suffer from anxiety about their timeline, even if many months go by with no sign of any action on the application. This is how it goes.
I realize a lot of the whining is venting and venting can be beneficial. BUT a counter message needs to be restated and reinforced so that others can put the whining, the venting, into context rather than getting unrealistic expectations.
So, even if the above plays like a
broken record, as long as there is a continuing refrain of likewise
broken-record rants as if there is cause for alarm in how long the process is taking, I'm likely to return occasionally with reminders of reality.