**********CEC September 2021 AOR**********

[Guru2000]

Do if we have any WhatsApp group for sept AOR ?

 

[RPA_Van]

Just called IRCC, the agent told me my Vo is Edmonton, I am pretty sure it was processed in Ottawa before.
Also, the status has not changed at all since Oct. 20th.
Medical: passed
Eligibility: passed
Info-sharing: in progress
Criminality: in progress
Security: not started

It's been almost 5 months(My AOR is 09/03/2021), I don't think they can complete processing the application within 6 month....

I think the whole process is stopped now. Nothing is moving, not hearing any news or updates.

Something else has been prioritized, or they are busy clearing older applications, and September applications will come once all the old cases are cleared

We have no other choice except to guess all weird reasons.

Now 152 days over, 28 days more.

 

[jjwu]

I think the whole process is stopped now. Nothing is moving, not hearing any news or updates.

Something else has been prioritized, or they are busy clearing older applications, and September applications will come once all the old cases are cleared

We have no other choice except to guess all weird reasons.

Now 152 days over, 28 days more.

I think so. I have heard a couple of cases from 2020 got approved recently.

 

[aashishleo]

Do if we have any WhatsApp group for sept AOR ?

https://chat.whatsapp.com/Km6v5fGwDWxAqO0Fel3dfa

 

[Chahalkamal]

I think so. I have heard a couple of cases from 2020 got approved recently.

i got an additional information request letter for PR to confirm the residential address. How long they gonna take to make a final decision ?

 

[GandiBaat]

i got an additional information request letter for PR to confirm the residential address. How long they gonna take to make a final decision ?

When did this happen? I think you are close to completion. What was your last status? Is your VO still Edmonton?

 

[Chahalkamal]

When did this happen? I think you are close to completion. What was your last status? Is your VO still Edmonton?

Yeaa it’s Edmonton … Jus today i got request letter. I haven’t received any GU till now !! Aor-13 Aug , Medical pass-14 September

 

[GandiBaat]

To all those who are waiting...
I believe I have some ummm... kind of idea.

Look at this :

This is from Cuck-News portal: https://www.cicnews.com/2021/12/express-entry-ircc-finalizing-over-14000-cec-applications-and-under-600-fswp-applications-per-month-1219746.html

And checkout this : https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2021-2023.html

So in 2021, there was space to land 108,500 CEC+FSW+Skill Trades. Apart from this, there was space to land 80K PNP people. Now till October, there were 108.8K CEC, 6.7K FSW and 393 FST were landed. This is about 115K folks in CEC+FSW+FST... Way above the target... And lets not forget our dear TR2PR folks as well. And then only 12.5 K PNP folks. This means somewhere among 80K PNP folks quota, they ate up about significant number among CEC, FSW, FST and TR2PR. I am sure as hell, some provinces must have lost the marbles due to this. Later in this year, they have been CoPRing FSW a lot initially. But now a days its all PNP. I think they are compensating provinces who lost their quota and what not last year.. Alternatively, I think till this years quota is not released publically, they do not want to touch CEC and FSWs too much so PNP (which had space last year too) is getting priority. Had it been a non election year, we would have gotten quota numbers in October/Nov only... But being an election year that has been pushed to Feb 2022. Lets wait and see the numbers in quota for PNP, FSW, CEC and FST.

I got a feeling, this year is going to be a PNP heavy year with just enough quota to land all existing CECs + FSWs+ FSTs.

 

[GandiBaat]

Yeaa it’s Edmonton … Jus today i got request letter. I haven’t received any GU till now !! Aor-13 Aug , Medical pass-14 September

Looks like my dear, your dog days are over...
BTW, you never reached out to IRCC for status over phone or something?

 

[m3cache]

To all those who are waiting...
I believe I have some ummm... kind of idea.

Look at this :

So in 2021, there was space to land 108,500 CEC+FSW+Skill Trades. Apart from this, there was space to land 80K PNP people. Now till October, there were 108.8K CEC, 6.7K FSW and 393 FST were landed. This is about 115K folks in CEC+FSW+FST... Way above the target... And lets not forget our dear TR2PR folks as well. And then only 12.5 K PNP folks. This means somewhere among 80K PNP folks quota, they ate up about significant number among CEC, FSW, FST and TR2PR. I am sure as hell, some provinces must have lost the marbles due to this. Later in this year, they have been CoPRing FSW a lot initially. But now a days its all PNP. I think they are compensating provinces who lost their quota and what not last year.. Alternatively, I think till this years quota is not released publically, they do not want to touch CEC and FSWs too much so PNP (which had space last year too) is getting priority. Had it been a non election year, we would have gotten quota numbers in October/Nov only... But being an election year that has been pushed to Feb 2022. Lets wait and see the numbers in quota for PNP, FSW, CEC and FST.

I got a feeling, this year is going to be a PNP heavy year with just enough quota to land all existing CECs + FSWs+ FSTs.

I think you've hit the nail on the head, I never thought of the PNP applications that were never approved. To your point, there are 68,000 PNP applications waiting to be processed.

In case anyone is wondering about the math. Let's assume that November and December saw 15,000 CEC+FSW+FST applications processed, that would be 145,000 landed applicants in 2021. That's 33,000 over budget (108,000). Let's say the IRCC keeps the quota the same in 2022 (110,500) but wants to reduce the 2022 target by the number of excess applicants that landed in 2021. That means that the new target would be 77,500 (110,500 - 33,000) EE applicants (CEC+FSW+Skill Trades) landed this year. As of December 15th there were 25K CEC, 54.5 FSW, and 1000 FST applications in the queue which is 80,500..... I can see why the Government has delayed releasing any immigration targets, they're all probably shouting "FUCK how do we make the math work".

TR2PR is a good call out, that's an additional 20k people (I would be curious about the CEC/TR2PR overlap). Do you know if they're considered Economic immigration or their own class?

If IRCC does have draws in June they're going to be tiny.

 

[Chahalkamal]

Looks like my dear, your dog days are over...
BTW, you never reached out to IRCC for status over phone or something?

I did that so many times. They had same answer every time, security not started yet !! Hopefully some good news !!

 

[soroush_master]

Called IRCC today and got this status update:

VO: Edmonton
Eligibility: Passes
Criminality: Passed
Medical: Passed
Info sharing: Completed
Security: Not started


My AOR date was Sep. 21st through CEC.

 

[RPA_Van]

I think you've hit the nail on the head, I never thought of the PNP applications that were never approved. To your point, there are 68,000 PNP applications waiting to be processed.

In case anyone is wondering about the math. Let's assume that November and December saw 15,000 CEC+FSW+FST applications processed, that would be 145,000 landed applicants in 2021. That's 33,000 over budget (108,000). Let's say the IRCC keeps the quota the same in 2022 (110,500) but wants to reduce the 2022 target by the number of excess applicants that landed in 2021. That means that the new target would be 77,500 (110,500 - 33,000) EE applicants (CEC+FSW+Skill Trades) landed this year. As of December 15th there were 25K CEC, 54.5 FSW, and 1000 FST applications in the queue which is 80,500..... I can see why the Government has delayed releasing any immigration targets, they're all probably shouting "FUCK how do we make the math work".

TR2PR is a good call out, that's an additional 20k people (I would be curious about the CEC/TR2PR overlap). Do you know if they're considered Economic immigration or their own class?

If IRCC does have draws in June they're going to be tiny.

Very good analysis by both.
There are 40000 Afghanistan migrants also, 8 k were processed until January, and still, 32 K are in the queue.
After reading all these I feel, there is no urgency from their side and it will be our luck if we hear something very soon.
And as far as 6 months SLA is concerned for CEC/PR, that is not there anymore.

 

[RPA_Van]

Called IRCC today and got this status update:

VO: Edmonton
Eligibility: Passes
Criminality: Passed
Medical: Passed
Info sharing: Completed
Security: Not started


My AOR date was Sep. 21st through CEC.

Congratulations! it looks like the last stage and depends on when they initiate the process, or if they have already initiated it.

I did not understand their process flow, many of these can be triggered in parallel, why it is getting done in a sequential manner.

 

[GandiBaat]

Called IRCC today and got this status update:

VO: Edmonton
Eligibility: Passes
Criminality: Passed
Medical: Passed
Info sharing: Completed
Security: Not started


My AOR date was Sep. 21st through CEC.

Typically, security is started after you pass eligibility. So it is possible that your security might have already processed. Also security typically does not show up as "in progress".