Capped!Capped!!Capped!!!First Profession capped under FSW 2014

[Baskin]

Due to the volume of received applications and the feedback in different forums, the backlog of received applications at the CIO is an estimated 12 to 15 weeks. As of August, 25th there are 404 applications received for NOC2174. The CIO adds more or less 100 applications per week to this NOC. This means that there is space for 6 more weeks worth of applications before the cap will be reached. Given the backlog of over 12 weeks, there is no point to apply for NOC2174

Are you sure about that?
Because if this is the case, then THE CAPS ARE ALL FILLED!!! I know it sounds nuts, but this is the situation if what you're saying is correct. For example, if anyone sends his NOC application now, and let's say it has one app only so far. Add to that 12 to 15 weeks of the backlog (The CIO adds more or less 100 applications per week to this NOC), so the result is 1201 apps. Means the cap's been reached.
I'm still confused, would anybody clarify please?

 

[romar]

last year when the Cap was only 300, it had filled on 30 May, now it's 1000, more than triple, you still expect it to fill in 1st week of June!!

Any assumption based on what happened last year is not correct at all. Last year, we reached 300 in 30 days. In 2014, we reached 404 in 14 days! ! This alone invalidates the claim that the cap will take three times what it took last year to get closed.

In my opinion, the cap has been reached in mid July

 

[naticom]

I propose 3 models for this:
1. Worldwide application trend is the same as SS
2. Worldwide application rate is almost the same in each month in the first 3 months. (uniform distribution)
3. Worldwide application trend follows a normal distribution

For the first model:
The latest update on CIC webpage is 08/25. There are 115(or more, not everyone updated on SS) got PER on SS in NOC 2174, and 404 on CIC page. We can derive that total number of worldwide 2174 applicants are about 3.513X of SS 2174 applicants, and we can estimate that total number of 1000 will be reached when 2174 reaches 285 ppl on the SS (between last week of July and first week of August)

For the second model:
number of 2174 on SS is more than 220 at the end of May, so number of applicants outside SS may be 220*2.513=553.
And the total number of worldwide 2174 applicants will be 220+553 =773. We assume applicants outside SS follow the same trend as in May, so the remaining 227 quota will be filled in the first 10 days on June (by received day).

Normal distribution is not that possible for hot NOCS like 1112 and 217X so I'm not gonna discuss about that.

The world outside SS may be totally different starting from June, so we have to wait for more CIC updates to observe for this.

Any assumption based on what happened last year is not correct at all. Last year, we reached 300 in 30 days. In 2014, we reached 404 in 14 days! ! This alone invalidates the claim that the cap will take three times what it took last year to get closed.

In my opinion, the cap has been reached in mid July

 

[romar]

I propose 3 models for this:
1. Worldwide application trend is the same as SS
2. Worldwide application rate is almost the same in each month in the first 3 months. (uniform distribution)
3. Worldwide application trend follows a normal distribution

For the first model:
The latest update on CIC webpage is 08/25. There are 115(or more, not everyone updated on SS) got PER on SS in NOC 2174, and 404 on CIC page. We can derive that total number of worldwide 2174 applicants are about 3.513X of SS 2174 applicants, and we can estimate that total number of 1000 will be reached when 2174 reaches 285 ppl on the SS (between last week of July and first week of August)

For the second model:
number of 2174 on SS is more than 220 at the end of May, so number of applicants outside SS may be 220*2.513=553.
And the total number of worldwide 2174 applicants will be 220+553 =773. We assume applicants outside SS follow the same trend as in May, so the remaining 227 quota will be filled in the first 10 days on June (by received day).

Normal distribution is not that possible for hot NOCS like 1112 and 217X so I'm not gonna discuss about that.

The world outside SS may be totally different starting from June, so we have to wait for more CIC updates to observe for this.

Good analysis. But you need to do the math again. 115/404 is only 28%

 

[Baskin]

I'm planning to submit my application in mid November for NOC 1111 or 0111, hasn't decided yet.
What do you think my chances are? Rt now noc 1111 is 56 on cic website and 92 on global spreadsheet.
Pls help.
appreciate your reply

 

[neel-here]

This is intriguing...

The way I look at it is that last year caps were 300 in FSW 2013 (since there's no FSW 2012 & it opened after FSW 2011), lot many Applicants went chasing for the 300 count. However, ECA (an "entry barrier") was introduced for first time in FSW 2013.. it was not possible for everybody to send their Applications on Day 1 (Week 1/ Week 2)

Bottom line: My guesstimate is that over 500 (2174's, 1112's) were returned last year globally due to this "demand- supply mismatch". Assuming, 80% conversion rate .. which comes to ~400 were prepared (with ECA) in FSW 2014 and they hit the "Send" button in first week of May.. which is why 7th May / 8th+9th/ 14th May is flooded with these returning Applicants. So a count of approx. 400 +/- was expected in initial week.. which is nothing but a backlog of FSW 2013 Applicants 8)

So, it would not be proper to juxtapose the rate of 300/30days in FSW 2013 with intial weeks of FSW 2014 8)

Any assumption based on what happened last year is not correct at all. Last year, we reached 300 in 30 days. In 2014, we reached 404 in 14 days! ! This alone invalidates the claim that the cap will take three times what it took last year to get closed.

In my opinion, the cap has been reached in mid July

 

[ksa0510]

I propose 3 models for this:
1. Worldwide application trend is the same as SS
2. Worldwide application rate is almost the same in each month in the first 3 months. (uniform distribution)
3. Worldwide application trend follows a normal distribution

For the first model:
The latest update on CIC webpage is 08/25. There are 115(or more, not everyone updated on SS) got PER on SS in NOC 2174, and 404 on CIC page. We can derive that total number of worldwide 2174 applicants are about 3.513X of SS 2174 applicants, and we can estimate that total number of 1000 will be reached when 2174 reaches 285 ppl on the SS (between last week of July and first week of August)

For the second model:
number of 2174 on SS is more than 220 at the end of May, so number of applicants outside SS may be 220*2.513=553.
And the total number of worldwide 2174 applicants will be 220+553 =773. We assume applicants outside SS follow the same trend as in May, so the remaining 227 quota will be filled in the first 10 days on June (by received day).

Normal distribution is not that possible for hot NOCS like 1112 and 217X so I'm not gonna discuss about that.

The world outside SS may be totally different starting from June, so we have to wait for more CIC updates to observe for this.

The Capping trend is becoming more interesting mathematically and we need more analytical models to get
to solve the capping limits for people preparing their applications for submission under FSW 2014.

This will give them the opportunity to make an informed decision on whether to submit or not but rather
plan properly for the Express Entry in Jan 2015.

 

[naticom]

How do we know that over 500 ppl in 2174 and 1112 were returned last year?

This is intriguing...

The way I look at it is that last year caps were 300 in FSW 2013 (since there's no FSW 2012 & it opened after FSW 2011), lot many Applicants went chasing for the 300 count. However, ECA (an "entry barrier") was introduced for first time in FSW 2013.. it was not possible for everybody to send their Applications on Day 1 (Week 1/ Week 2)

Bottom line: My guesstimate is that over 500 (2174's, 1112's) were returned last year globally due to this "demand- supply mismatch". Assuming, 80% conversion rate .. which comes to ~400 were prepared (with ECA) in FSW 2014 and they hit the "Send" button in first week of May.. which is why 7th May / 8th+9th/ 14th May is flooded with these returning Applicants. So a count of approx. 400 +/- was expected in initial week.. which is nothing but a backlog of FSW 2013 Applicants 8)

So, it would not be proper to juxtapose the rate of 300/30days in FSW 2013 with intial weeks of FSW 2014 8)

 

[Baskin]

Ok. On the cic website the NOC is 56, and you guys say it's the count till mid May.
In other words, after 6 weeks from the beginning of 2014 FSWP the number of accepted apps for processing is 56...which means less than 10 apps per week.
If I'm doing the math right, then by the beginning of November the number will reach 300.
What do you guys think? Am I right or what?

 

[happy16]

Ok. On the cic website the NOC is 56, and you guys say it's the count till mid May.
In other words, after 6 weeks from the beginning of 2014 FSWP the number of accepted apps for processing is 56...which means less than 10 apps per week.
If I'm doing the math right, then by the beginning of November the number will reach 300.
What do you guys think? Am I right or what?

you are pretty safe bro!! to top that up, the rush (no. of applications reaching CIC) is pretty high in the starting so the average drops substantially after May & so the game plays on for even longer!!

 

[S4F]

In all probability, Computer programmers and interactive media developers (2174) is now filled. My advice is not to apply this year. It would be wastage of time, money and energy to apply at this stage.

For Software engineers and designers (2173) and Financial and investment analysts (1112) apply in the next one week or forget about reaching the cap on time. Better not apply under these NOCs this year unless your documents are complete and fully ready for dispatch.

Information systems analysts and consultants (2171) and Mechanical engineers (2132) will probably be filled up in two weeks time. You should ideally be at the advance stages of your documentation readiness stage. If you still have things like passports, birth certificates, bank statements, ECA and IELTS left, better not apply this year. You probably will miss the cap.

This is not misinformation. Please take it seriously.

 

[ASMIA]

Hi Members,

The first Profession has been capped although this is unofficial but there
is high element of truthfulness in this.

THE CAPPED PROFESSION IS Computer programmer and Interactive media
developers with NOC 2174.It is 1000 according to the forum spreadsheet

If you are planning to submit under this profession,do think twice before
submitting.

I will humbly advise you wait for Express Entry starting Jan.2015

Check the link below for up-to-date applications received thus far(Note:
this is unofficial but loaded with facts)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11gAbKSoDoOr1s8_raB1qwz0i-ZH0NyNWhhn18O6kHwQ/htmlview?sle=true#

Best of luck to all applicants.

Although it's an approximation, but it seems from global spreadsheet that NOC 1112 also has reached the cap

 

[niagracalling]

you are pretty safe bro!! to top that up, the rush (no. of applications reaching CIC) is pretty high in the starting so the average drops substantially after May & so the game plays on for even longer!!

I agree with happy16. there is always rush in the beginning due to last year backlog. also considering the fact that there are 4 NOC options for finance, chances are more bright.

 

[niagracalling]

Ok. On the cic website the NOC is 56, and you guys say it's the count till mid May.
In other words, after 6 weeks from the beginning of 2014 FSWP the number of accepted apps for processing is 56...which means less than 10 apps per week.
If I'm doing the math right, then by the beginning of November the number will reach 300.
What do you guys think? Am I right or what?

I agree with happy16. there is always rush in the beginning due to last year backlog. also considering the fact that there are 4 NOC options for finance, chances are more bright.

 

[soniceamon]

In all probability, Computer programmers and interactive media developers (2174) is now filled. My advice is not to apply this year. It would be wastage of time, money and energy to apply at this stage.

For Software engineers and designers (2173) and Financial and investment analysts (1112) apply in the next one week or forget about reaching the cap on time. Better not apply under these NOCs this year unless your documents are complete and fully ready for dispatch.

Information systems analysts and consultants (2171) and Mechanical engineers (2132) will probably be filled up in two weeks time. You should ideally be at the advance stages of your documentation readiness stage. If you still have things like passports, birth certificates, bank statements, ECA and IELTS left, better not apply this year. You probably will miss the cap.

This is not misinformation. Please take it seriously.

SF4 can you give a explanation for " is now filled" now means which date? also from all the comments above... Whats is the CIC official cap number means? eg: 404 is that app received or PER? a bit confused as total app received cant count as the cap right.... may be i was wrong but if it is total received can't we just count the real cap number by PER as many applications will be returned? so can't we compare the number of 404 and total PER by 25/08 to estimate the real cap filled for 2174?

I applied late.... mid August... Hope i can catch the chance....