That actually helps a lot—thanks! So more than 90% sounds like a safe bet, even if it’s not an official number. I just wanted to get a rough idea of what to expect.
I think this is the wrong way to look at it, and fundamentally (part of) why others warned that any such statistics are questionable. My 90% + estimate is based on my estimate that (in fact, at present) most spousal applications are not fraudulent, that is, they are true matrimonial relationships. It's 'easy' only if you start with a real relationship.
Within the 'true relationships', the remaining refusals (and possibly incompletes) are probably mostly mistakes / insufficient common law / not meeting conjugal requirements, and a small number of 'citizen-sponsor abroad with insufficient intent to return.' Some prohibitions (eg criminality) of course. A lot of posts here due to 'undeclared spouse (esp common law)' from sponsor's own PR; I believe the numbers aren't that large but it comes up (distressingly) often because a surprise and very upsetting for them. The incompletes of significance are (it seems) mostly sponsorship withdrawn i.e. relationship breakdown. A fair number of misrepresentation (not declaring other refusals), some of which might have been found to be non-genuine relationships anyway. I've probably forgotten a few types.
It's not clear to me when/where IRCC includes 'refusals' in their percentages, and definitions. Hence: very rough estimates.
But the input we do not know (and probably don't hear much about) are the fraudulent apps. If that number changes much, IRCC's refusal numbers WILL grow, albeit possibly with a lag. (Personally I think the number of mistaken refusals for fraudulent relationships is quite low - but only a guess). My guess - again - is those fraudulent applicants don't post a lot here.
These figures for spousal sponsorship CANNOT be compared to those for express entry, etc. Express entry's most serious filter is the points. That filter is hard in the sense that it's difficult to meet it (esp now) - but submitting a fraudulent app based on fake points is not so easy (probably roughly comparable to fake relationships).
Meanwhile, here I am, looking at a 90%+ approval rate under common-law sponsorship.
You've already mis-used the statistic. It only works if including ALL spousal sponsorship apps. If common law is a bit harder (it is), the figure will be different. If it's more recent common law applications, another different figure. If it looks like the applicant may have incentives to apply as common law (because no chance otherwise): yet another figure. If they get the slightest hint of a non-genuine relationship: a VERY different figure.
It's like taking a proportion of schoolchildren and saying how many can run 200m in [some period of time.] If you're the one kid in a wheelchair, you cannot take that proportion as a useful predictor.
And you already made that basic statistics mistake.
You may not be in 'the wheelchair' in this analogy, but it's the same mistake - you are not the general population.
And no - no-one can predict or tell you what your chances are. You are not the general population.
If what you mean to say is that your chances are better than with express entry, then perhaps in your case that's true.
I don't think the statistic will help for spousal sponsorship.
It depends on how many who applied were not eligible. (e.g. didn't declare their relationship when the sponsor and PA got married/became common law partners, fake marriages, didn't complete all traditional process for a traditional marriage, fake marriage to get PR...etc)
At desperation time when a lot of people are losing their ability to extend study/work permits and still want to stay in Canada, I can see that number will get higher.
Precisely. Well put. And yes, I'd expect it to go higher. (As will the number of refugee and H&C apps as desperation measures.)
