I don't want burst anybody's bubble, but just because we WANT to think that the bill won't be passed soon, it does not mean that it actually will not be passed. I also think we might be giving too much credit to the Canadian democratic process
. So perhaps being pessimistic will keep us thinking about ways to do something about it.
A few days ago, I contacted the office of Lysanne Blanchette-Lamothe, and I got a reply from her Parliamentary Assistant. With her permission, I give you the relevant parts of that email. A note: the parts in the quotation marks are her actual words, while the parts following in the brackets are my understanding of it.
"To answer your first question, we do not know when the modification to s.5(1)(c) would come into force as it has to be enacted by an Order in Council."
(This section concerns the granting of citizenship, so nobody can know when certain parts of the law will start to be applied; we would have to wait for the last stage, the Royal Assent, which would specify the dates. My first question was, if the law were to be passed in its current form, would it affect the current PRs - effectively extending their residency requirements - or would it only affect those who become PRs AFTER the law starts to be applied. Based on Alexander's words, and the various opinions on the internet, it seems the former is the case - but I wanted to check. I also asked if the law were passed during the summer, when it would start to be applied; this nobody can now until Royal Assent).
"As for your second question, the bill is coming back to the House for second reading on May 28th, assuming that the Conservative government puts a time allocation on the debate (and they have already indicated that they will), C-24 could receive the Royal Sanction this summer."
(This is a bit confusing to me; she says 'second reading,' while the Parliament's web site says the second reading was in February 2014. Also, I could not find any debate on C-24 scheduled in the HoC calendar.)
"If the bill is passed in its present form, many legal experts have testified before the Standing Committee of Citizenship and Immigration that it could, in fact, face constitutional challenges, particularly pertaining to sections (6), (7) and (15) of the Charter." (Here my question was whether the courts might challenge the new law, because many legal experts have expressed their doubts as to the constitutionality of its certain parts. Section 6 of the Charter concerns the mobility rights of citizens, Section 7 concerns the right to life, liberty, and security, and Section 15 is about equality under law.).
"Again, the majority of the provisions of the bill will be enacted by Orders in Council so we have no way of knowing when they will come into force." (Here, in a second email, she repeated that nobody knows when parts of the law will start to be applied. If you read about Orders in Council, it seems that the Governor has some leeway in determining a law's entry into force. Perhaps if things start happening very quickly now, we could at least protest to the Governor and try to delay entry into force that way.
I also sent the same email to Minister Alexander, and it seems they will just ignore me ;D. I think that attitude might illustrate their view of those who oppose the Bill. And I was very respectful...
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So anyways, the email I received was not very optimistic. The Conservatives have the majority and it seems they can pretty much vote anything into law. The lady said it might happen this summer! This might be challenged by the courts later though.
So I urge everyone not to get too comfortable :-[. Let's keep thinking about ways to do something.
Can anyone confirm they will have a debate on the Bill on the 28th of May?