Are sudden drops in draw scores possible

[blikpils]

Yes sudden drops can happen.

In the history of EE draws, you have some good examples :

538 to 491 in August-September 2016.

534 to 484 in May 2016.

735 to 481 in March 2015.

755 to 482 in June 2015.

With CIC, almost everything is possible.

Everything is possible but the ranges above 480 have been emptied a lot of times .. They have not gone down to around 450 in a long time so that group (450/480) is packed. I would say that they might do it if there is a lack of high skilled applicants but i don't see that happening anytime soon.

What might happen is that they have to start gradually lowering the scores to maybe end up around 450 in a couple of months at its lowest.

 

[thestunner316]

As sad as it might sound, I am no predicting any bigger drops any time soon. The only reason we have seen some reasonable drops in the past (mainly in 2015) was the reason that the system was new and people were still hunting documents or improving their language tests. But by now, there is rather big pool of applicants who put their points on max (IELTS tests and education assessment).
So the current trend is rather to seek options how to get additional points. That can be either with direct job offer or provincial nominations.
That part does take time (especially with PNP), so about now I predict even slight point increase, because of the update in many PNP applicants.
And this trend will not go down unless they will not significantly increase amount of ITA per month.
There are way more than 1000 new EE every 14 days. so the competition gets actually tighter.

most of them are due to PNP and LMIA...
i agree number of people in the pool will be a lot more than before, however if there are large draw sizes over the next few months, continuosly, then i see the score dropping to around 460...

 

[vensak]

Unless there will be a major update in the system (like drastical drop in score boost from job offer or provincial nomination) I do not see it happening. Competition will only get bigger thats all.

 

[thestunner316]

Unless there will be a major update in the system (like drastical drop in score boost from job offer or provincial nomination) I do not see it happening. Competition will only get bigger thats all.

provincial nomination will be the same... LMIA on the other hand might be changed
but lets say even if they decrease from 600 points to 100, even then LMIA candidates will be better placed than us... LOL

 

[rubinderjit]

provincial nomination will be the same... LMIA on the other hand might be changed
but lets say even if they decrease from 600 points to 100, even then LMIA candidates will be better placed than us... LOL

The Ideal thing should to decrease the maximum CRS scores to 900 instead of 1200: Human Capital scores of 600 and remaining 300 for PNP or Job Offer. Also certain restrictions should be there on giving a job offer like minimum CLB level, education and workex requirements. I have seen candidates with overall 4 bands in IELTS getting Job offer. They might still be better placed but the system will be a little fairer.

 

[thestunner316]

The Ideal thing should to decrease the maximum CRS scores to 900 instead of 1200: Human Capital scores of 600 and remaining 300 for PNP or Job Offer. Also certain restrictions should be there on giving a job offer like minimum CLB level, education and workex requirements. I have seen candidates with overall 4 bands in IELTS getting Job offer. They might still be better placed but the system will be a little fairer.

yeah but job offer depends on what NOC is required in which province... you cant really compete against that
even if they give 300 points for job offer, it still 99% guarantees them nomination... might as well give them 600 to guarantee nomination ... lol

 

[rubinderjit]

yeah but job offer depends on what NOC is required in which province... you cant really compete against that
even if they give 300 points for job offer, it still 99% guarantees them nomination... might as well give them 600 to guarantee nomination ... lol

Yeah but with other restrictions like minimum CLB level, education, certifications and work experience, people who can score above 400 or above 450 in current system will be eligible for getting job offers. This is fair in comparison to people reaching 850 after job offer, which means that just 250 in human capital factors. Current system is little unfair according to me.

 

[vensak]

you might be forgetting follwing:
1. in order to at least qualify into EE system you shall first score minimum of 67 points just to be allowed in the system. That means that most ot the people will hit 300+
2. we also have trades and as much as you might not like it, some of them are actually highly demanded by the local market.

What I find a bit strange is the system of additional 50 / 100 points for the CBL 9+ score in the language tests. It might be more fair to get some kind of index value depending on your language score rather than giving just the specific value. Just saying that those values slightly below it are not that much worse to be put so much behind.