Am quoting the original post and query, below, because it best outlines the issue raised and relevant considerations pertinent to applying with less than 1095 days APP (actual physical presence).
Such applications are commonly referred to
shortfall applications. As others have indicated, these days the odds are not good for
shortfall applicants, but as I discuss some below (and contrary to some comments above) there is still some chance that a
shortfall applicant might be approved and granted citizenship. Current law does not absolutely require a minimum of 1095 days APP.
I offer my observations below with the caveat that they are about general principles and practices, about applying what is known to facts generally, and should not be taken as personal advice. For specific, personal advice about how to best proceed in a specific case, it would be better to at least obtain a consultation with a lawyer, a licensed, reputable, experienced Canadian immigration and citizenship lawyer.
The overriding observation, of course, is that it appears CIC is strictly enforcing an actual physical presence standard in most, if not nearly all but a few exceptional cases. While some assert there is an absolute requirement to have 1095 days APP, it is not an absolute requirement. Indeed, there have been a couple recent cases in which the Federal Court granted an appeal because the Citizenship Judge did not consider a qualitative test (oft called the
Koo test). But, it does appear that CIC mostly applies the strict physical presence test (requiring physical presence for at least 1095 days), and encourages CJs to do likewise, and as a result it also appears that many if not most CJs are following CIC's lead in this. Moreover, most Federal Court judges are allowing this, some emphatically, some ruling this is the only correct interpretation and application of the law.
So the odds are probably less than 50-50, and perhaps significantly less than 50-50. But they are
not zero. And the situation, the circumstances, will thus matter a great deal.
One more upfront observation: while Citizenship Judges have been taken out of
routine case decision making, for now applicants will
not be denied based on residency unless a Citizenship Judge, after a hearing, denies approval (allowing, however, that even if the CJ grants approval, CIC can still appeal that rather than forthwith grant citizenship). That is, if CIC is not satisfied the applicant met the residency requirement, CIC does not summarily deny a grant of citizenship; rather, the case will still be referred to a Citizenship Judge for a hearing.
My impression is that you have identified many if not most of the key elements which will influence how a fact-finder assesses your case.
The
risks you are taking include:
-- virtual certainty of being issued RQ
-- likely delay over processing times for routine cases (but probably not the protracted residency case timelines suffered by so many these last three-five years)
-- substantial prospect of denial, thus wasted time and money
Given the substantial odds of CIC's opposition, if not an outright denial by a Citizenship Judge, there is little point in pursuing this without making a concerted effort to do it right, to make the best case you can. Practically that means you should obtain the assistance of a legal professional, preferrably from the beginning (as in including in preparing the application itself). This increases both the amount of money and effort you will need to invest to pursue this. (Otherwise it is a mere gamble with very poor odds.)
Make no mistake, there probably are many, many thousands of PRs in a similar position, on the cusp, facing the prospect of having to wait well more than an additional year if the new provision takes effect before they make their application. As the date when the new law takes effect approaches, thousands will probably, likewise, make the decision to go ahead and make a
shortfall application.
In the meantime, CIC will be bogged down in adapting to a whole lot of new law, policy, and practice, and being a big bureaucracy it will not likely be a smooth transition. It could get rather messy. So those with
issues may find their cases at low priority, not well-handled, and perhaps subject to the longer range of delays.
So, given the expense, the extent of effort involved, and the not-so-great odds, for the conscientious PR it will not be an easy decision.
As I suggested, though, the particular facts and circumstances in the individual's case are likely to make a big difference; some
shortfall applicants will have better odds than other
shortfall applicants, and some will have near zero odds even though not absolutely zero.
But it is difficult to outline what factors loom largest in making up one's mind about whether to pursue the
shortfall application or not.
One of the giggest factors, of course, is the extent of the shortfall. The larger the shortfall, the worse the odds. Three years ago, a shortfall of less than a hundred days did not have such daunting odds. Federal Court cases the last several months, reflecting CJ decisions made in 2013, seem to indicate that a shortfall of 35 days poses a high hurdle, the odds not too good.
PRs for less than four years.
A factor that I cannot say is derived from specific statements in the Federal Court cases (I have read at least 45 of the last 50 Federal Court citizenship case decisions, and many more from before that), but which I perceive to nonetheless be a considerable factor, is whether or not the PR has had his or her life centralized in Canada for
more than four years. Reminder, this is about
shortfall cases, not about applicants who meet the 1095+ APP test (meeting the 1095 days APP test definitively constitutes meeting the residency requirement). And, it seems to me, there is in particular a disadvantage for such applicants relying on credit for time present in Canada before becoming a landed PR (again, this is in reference to a shortfall applicant).
There is no doubt, up to when the new provisions take effect, credit for time spent living in Canada prior to landing as a PR, but still within the relevant four years, counts toward meeting the residency requirement (half-day credit), and thus for an applicant who met the 1095 day APP (actual physical presence) threshold there should be no problem relying on such credit.
But since the
shortfall applicant is essentially asking a Citizenship Judge to find that his life has been sufficiently
centralized in Canada to find he has met the residency requirement despite the extent of his absences, my strong sense is that someone who has not been a PR for at least three years, closer to four, is likely to have difficulty convincing a stranger bureaucrat that his life was
centralized in Canada during a time period the individual only had temporary status to be in Canada (that is, during any period prior to landing as a PR).
Again, however, there is no indication this is an overt or explicit policy. Thus there is no sure rule about this.
The real issue: timing the making of the application
prasamp's query is premised on making the application the end of May, 2015, and being 35 days short as of then.
prasamp further postulates that "waiting for another 35 days will put me under new law."
We do not know that. Some are speculating that the new law will not come into force until later in the summer of 2015, perhaps not until September or later even. The only indication the government has given suggested "about a year" from the date of Royal Assent, which would suggest a date in June 2015. On the other hand, there is no bar to the Governor in Council ordering the provisions to come into force sooner than that, perhaps quite a lot sooner.
We just plain do not know when the new residency requirements will take effect.
And for PRs like
prasamp and
nadeem55, like many thousands of PRs who landed and became PRs between late 2011 and into 2012 (depending on the extent of their travels abroad) the actual date the 4/6 provisions take effect is a big deal.
If, for example, the 4/6 provision takes effect July 1st, an applicant who reached the 1095 days within the previous four years threshold before June 30th and who got his application delivered to CIC by June 30th, meets the residency qualification. If, however, he does not reach the threshold until July 1st, or otherwise fails to get the application made and delivered to CIC before July 1st, that individual will probably have to wait a minimum of another full year before he will be qualified.
Whatever the cutoff date actually is, it will similarly affect all those who are close. The number affected is sure to be many thousands (recognizing that in a typical month 20,000 or more new immigrants land in Canada).
If the public is informed in advance of the date the 4/6 provisions will take effect, these PRs on the cusp can make appropriate plans, one way or the other. Unfortunately, the amount of notice is likely to be short, and there is the possibility of little or no notice at all.
Thus, taking
prasamp's situation as an example, if it is clear that the 4/6 provision will come into force August 1st, 2015, thus giving
prasamp another sixty days to add to the calculation of days APP, it will of course be best for
prasamp to wait until passing the 1095 day threshold. But when the end of May next year approaches, and there is still no clear indication as to when the remaining provisions in Bill C-24 will take effect, it will be tough to decide how much longer to wait before applying.
And the decision will get even tougher if the end of June arrives, and
prasamp is still
just five days short of 1095 APP. Try waiting a few more days to reach that 1095 day mark? At the risk that the Governor in Council will, with no advance notice, order the provisions to take effect July 1st?
I suspect there will be many, many suffering some anxiety as next summer arrives and they are trying to determine how much longer to wait, or whether to make a shortfall application in order to be sure to avoid being subject to the 4/6 requirement.