Please read below trend analysis.
Hijacked from another thread, so thought of sharing with you all...
Originally posted in June thread but this thread may also find useful.
%age statuses by month as per Immitracker. Based on my past experience on reaction to this post will start with following disclaimer points
- Yes the immitracker data may not be accurate, as not all people enter or update their data. But I think it is okay as in no field you can have absolute population data. You will have to work with sample data and make decisions.
- As you read this and the data and you feel "oh I could list N reasons the data is not the right sample" … well yeah I know that BUT unless someone can give better data, this is all we have. So let’s make peace with it.
- Immitracker ignores inactive cases. And yes it does impact %ages. However, I think immitracker is correct in ignoring inactive cases.
- Having said all of above, I think this data can still be used to see trends which are useful. The %ages may not be accurate but overall movement is definitely indicative of progress
- And lastly, if you disagree just ignore!
Added two more months to observe trending better and make sure the trend holds.
Based on the data, here are my observations
The Good
- As expected June is showing an upward trend. Lots of movement. As I have said before 4th month after AOR is most productive for PPRs. I think we can expect ~20-23% more PPRs in this month.
- Look at August! Huge jump and lots of PPRs . The activity on August thread is testimony to that.
- March still moved at a decent pace but it will taper off in coming weeks, if previous trending holds.
The Bad
- March is stagnant! Nothing has moved and CIC seems to be missing the 80% mark for sure.
- July is stagnant too. I expected some movement in July. Let’s see if it picks up in coming weeks.
The Ugly
THE SLOWDOWN MAY BE REAL!
I think if this data is any indication, CIC may have to revise that 6 month timeline sooner or later unless they really pick up. Why do I say that?
Read below a bit carefully
Focus on the two shaded columns .. PPR% at end of August (29-Aug) and PPR% at end of September (28-Sep)
- At end of August which is almost month 6 for Feb 85% people from Feb and received PPR. This is good as this is what is expected. Rather CIC seems to beat the 80% target. For march at end of August (5th month from AOR) the number is 68%.
- So you expected March to give 12% more PPRs in one month and meet 80%. BUT March is stuck at 75%. And if I compare it to at same point vs Feb it is 10% slower than Feb.
- If we compare March Vs April. March at the end of Month 5 was at 68% whereas April at Month 5 is only 61% .. again 7% slower. And April doesn’t seem to move!
- Comparing April vs May. April was 48% at 4th month mark whereas May was only able to reach 45%.
We will see how this goes with two additional months added to data. BUT it is a clear indication that application processing is slow from March onward.
By end of October we will know if April can even hit 75% like March or falls short. Or if May is able to buck the trend and prove me wrong.
Over and out!