40th and Future Draws.. Any Guesses?

[dan28analyst]

I wonder when the number goes back to around 460..

Is there a chance it would go back?

 

[thejkhan]

October at the earliest.

 

[RAKII]

nobody knew any thing.....i just see astrologers sitting here and guessing (part time- time pass job). i am not excluded . I wish 461 at least next time.
I can write some thing here with very few technical terms like CIC clearing backlogs, more ITA/Less ITA blah blah blah.... but CIC will do whatever they wish to do. If u believe in god, pray for your scores. If not,just keep your self confidence high. Funniest thing that my friend told me earlier regarding scores stuck at 480 seems to be our JOHN MCCALLUM having constipation for a while before he comes to media to declare changes in points system for international students in Canada having Canadian experience.

Pray for yourself and pray for JOHN MCCALLUM's constipation to end, so that he comes out of his rest room to declare some favor to all of us.

 

[shahkunalm]

Now, To me this guessing is just like a gamble.

You hit or you miss..There is no logic or trend that can be seen in the draw off late.

To quickly summaries -

They were around 482 as on June 12, 2015.

Since then hovering between 450-471 till October 2, 2015.

Again shots up to 489, only to come down to 453 by January 13, 2016.

Stays sub 450 till February 24, 2016.

After this, till April end around 470.

Since then..482 is the new low..

Regards.

 

[dan28analyst]

nobody knew any thing.....i just see astrologers sitting here and guessing (part time- time pass job). i am not excluded . I wish 461 at least next time.
I can write some thing here with very few technical terms like CIC clearing backlogs, more ITA/Less ITA blah blah blah.... but CIC will do whatever they wish to do. If u believe in god, pray for your scores. If not,just keep your self confidence high. Funniest thing that my friend told me earlier regarding scores stuck at 480 seems to be our JOHN MCCALLUM having constipation for a while before he comes to media to declare changes in points system for international students in Canada having Canadian experience.

Pray for yourself and pray for JOHN MCCALLUM's constipation to end, so that he comes out of his rest room to declare some favor to all of us.

Yup man, lol, nice humor by the way

 

[dan28analyst]

Now, To me this guessing is just like a gamble.

You hit or you miss..There is no logic or trend that can be seen in the draw off late.

To quickly summaries -

They were around 482 as on June 12, 2015.

Since then hovering between 450-471 till October 2, 2015.

Again shots up to 489, only to come down to 453 by January 13, 2016.

Stays sub 450 till February 24, 2016.

After this, till April end around 470.

Since then..482 is the new low..

Regards.

I like your observation, lets wait and watch dude!

 

[Alexios07]

Pray for yourself and pray for JOHN MCCALLUM's constipation to end, so that he comes out of his rest room to declare some favor to all of us.

He's actually on a tour around the country to talk about the immigration plan. Hopefully, after this trip ends, he will be back to his office and have times to implement the promised changes.

Now, To me this guessing is just like a gamble.

You hit or you miss..There is no logic or trend that can be seen in the draw off late.

You cannot compare 2015 draws with 2016's, because the Immigration Plans are different each year. If you follow the draws closely, you can simply see the ITAs start dropping dramatically after the Immigration Plan 2016 announced.

 

[Nick~Nick]

You cannot compare 2015 draws with 2016's, because the Immigration Plans are different each year. If you follow the draws closely, you can simply see the ITAs start dropping dramatically after the Immigration Plan 2016 announced.

True !

Also I m thinking, it is not going below 470+ in this yr, if they stay with 750 ITA. And they are going to stay with 750-800 max ITA, bcos of new Immigration Plan 2016.

Consider if it is not possible to go blow 470+ (as per ITA), and also end of yr OINP restart, there will be more applicant going to be in pool with PNP, sooner.

Getting back to 450+, only if next yr they start again with 1400+ ITA.

Otherwise biweekly draw, they will easily get 750 applicant with 470+ CRS.

Bitter But True!!

 

[Alexios07]

True !

Also I m thinking, it is not going below 470+ in this yr, if they stay with 750 ITA. And they are going to stay with 750-800 max ITA, bcos of new Immigration Plan 2016.

Consider if it is not possible to go blow 470+ (as per ITA), and also end of yr OINP restart, there will be more applicant going to be in pool with PNP, sooner.

Getting back to 450+, only if next yr they start again with 1400+ ITA.

Otherwise biweekly draw, they will easily get 750 applicant with 470+ CRS.

Bitter But True!!

Yes, and people keep forgetting that there will be a huge rise in crs for CEC stream when IRCC starts awarding more points for Canadian degrees.

Therefore:

• Worst case scenario: ITAs will not go up, and cut-off points will stay 480+
• Best case scenario : ITAs go up, cut-off points will go down, but stay around 460+ or 470+ (no more 450 threshold) due to more points for Canadian degrees,

 

[Nick~Nick]

Yes, and people keep forgetting that there will be a huge rise in crs for CEC stream when IRCC starts awarding more points for Canadian degrees.

Therefore:

• Worst case scenario: ITAs will not go up, and cut-off points will stay 480+
• Best case scenario : ITAs go up, cut-off points will go down, but stay around 460+ or 470+ (no more 450 threshold) due to more points for Canadian degrees,

I doubt this, I don't think they are going to do this soon. Sooner than OINP restart.
I am hoping first think will come up now is OINP than any other stuff..

 

[LokiJr01]

If we are to believe that particular immigration video a few months back, scores will continue to be unreasonably high this month with the purpose of reducing backlog.

By September or October this should ease up.

 

[Alexios07]

If we are to believe that particular immigration video a few months back, scores will continue to be unreasonably high this month with the purpose of reducing backlog.

By September or October this should ease up.

I really don't know why you keep bringing that video to every threads? Did you even watch it and double check what the guy said? He said they will process and finish ALL the backlog pre Epress Entry within 2016 (17:43) which is virtually impossible. Do you know how large the backlog is as of March 2016? It's 383,159 applications. Even if IRCC manages to process all those backlog application (again, impossible) with approval rate of 70%, then there's still no ITAs left for anything.

He also said that the average draw score was around 420 - 450 (at 15:00) in the first months of 2016 draws which is not true at all. In addition, he even claimed that cut off score will drop below 400. If the score drops below 400, then what is the point of Express Entry and the point-based system? half of people in India, China and the Philippines will move here instantly.

Being optimistic and spreading untrue facts, giving people false hope are two different things.

 

[LokiJr01]

I really don't know why you keep bringing that video to every threads? Did you even watch it and double check what the guy said? He said they will process and finish ALL the backlog pre Epress Entry within 2016 (17:43) which is virtually impossible. Do you know how large the backlog is as of March 2016? It's 383,159 applications. Even if IRCC manages to process all those backlog application (again, impossible) with approval rate of 70%, then there's still no ITAs left for anything.

He also said that the average draw score was around 420 - 450 (at 15:00) in the first months of 2016 draws which is not true at all. In addition, he even claimed that cut off score will drop below 400. If the score drops below 400, then what is the point of Express Entry and the point-based system? half of people in India, China and the Philippines will move here instantly.

Being optimistic and spreading untrue facts, giving people false hope are two different things.

I started my statement with "If we are to believe that particular immigration video"
I'm pretty sure that was not any means of spreading false hope.

This sort of thread gets created every two weeks, let's just keep things light and optimistic. Things are gloomy as it is, we don't need to be negative about things

 

[Alexios07]

I started my statement with "If we are to believe that particular immigration video"
I'm pretty sure that was not any means of spreading false hope.

This sort of thread gets created every two weeks, let's just keep things light and optimistic. Things are gloomy as it is, we don't need to be negative about things

People need to know the truth to make and change their plans accordingly. What good can come from a false hope?

♫ If you love me let me know
If you don't then let me go
I can't take another minute... ♫

 

[LokiJr01]

@Alexios07 If it will give you peace of mind, I will never mention that video ever again. We'll keep it our little secret, deal?

My CRS is in a precarious position as well as I'm at 463 and I turn a year older in October, so I'm looking at PNP at the moment.

We can hope for a lower cut off in one of the draws...it's not impossible. But to be realistic, here's how I see things will play out:

> 482 = sit back and wait for the next draw
481 - 470 = try improving IELTS, work exp, ECA....get provincial nomination...or pray hard
469 - 450 = try improving IELTS, work exp, ECA....get provincial nomination...or pray really really hard
< 449 = get provincial nomination...or job offer