38th draw <GUESS>

[siriusnick]

Close to my opinion. And I made a mistake in my previous post too.

So
The total goal numbers for 2015 including FSW+CEC+PNP was 47k+21k+46k =114k(low). and those counted for both EE and people applied before EE.
The total goal numbers for 2016 including FSW+CEC+PNP was 54K +46K=100K and this also for EE and before 2016.

An admission means that PR visa has been issued.

We can take as hypothesis two facts:
(1)statistics of admissions is 2 person per application, which means 2 persons per ITA - it can be found in Quarterly data release (don't have the link now, but there's a picture http://i.imgur.com/QqYdk5V.png - can see there are as many dependents as applicants)

2)Based on fact (1) the streams for EE and pre-EE admissions are divided 50/50.

The proofs of it - 31k of ITAs means 62K of people, and that is roughly 1/2 or a bit more of the target 2015 - 114k.
Moreover, the guy from CIC in the official video mentioned that streams are equal, a half for EE and a half for pre-EE - just watch the video again.

So what we have is that number of people to be admitted under EE in 2016 is 100k/2=50k.
And it means around 25000 ITAs this year. 15286 ITAs have been issued. If around 11 draws are left, the number of ITAs will be around 900 if we divide it equally. Or around 1000, if they continue with a couple of smaller draws like 750. OR more ITAs if they exceed the minimum number od go for maximum.

A weak side of my speculation is that we don't really now how big is the backlog, is it really around 25k of applications to be proceed or more.

A good side is that starting from September or even earlier the admissions will be counted towards 2016 and EE only, because pre-EE applications are supposed to be finalized in 2016.
Hope for the best%)

Your "calculation" has speculations every single step along the way, and you said yourself the big unknown is the applications from 2015 that will be counted toward admission of 2016. You are using these targeted admission numbers to speculate ITA without knowing the most basic elements such as actual room left for 2016, numbers of principle applicants and so on? Not to mention most of ITA issued after July this year will almost definitely won't land this year, thus using 2016 admission target to guess second half of ITA in 2016 is beyond questionable, it is in fact irrelevant.

 

[Sluffy]

Your "calculation" has speculations every single step along the way, and you said yourself the big unknown is the applications from 2015 that will be counted toward admission of 2016. You are using these targeted admission numbers to speculate ITA without knowing the most basic elements such as actual room left for 2016, numbers of principle applicants and so on? Not to mention most of ITA issued after July this year will almost definitely won't land this year, thus using 2016 admission target to guess second half of ITA in 2016 is beyond questionable, it is in fact irrelevant.

Well, dude, first - this topic is named GUESS as you can see ;D no one is going to get PhD for this speculations.

Second, if you do yourself a favor and read the official statistics published such as target admissions for 2015 and 2016 (provided the links before) , or quarterly administrative data release published by CIC (where they say 42k people were admitted in Q1 2016 under economic class, and there are as many dependents as applicants - that's what we exactly are talking about), you will see that it makes sense.

Third - the admission target for 2016 is relevant. Because they do not stop issuing ITAs and use these number for the first 1-2-3 month of the next year.
Proof - they used target figures of 2015 when issued ITAs in January, February of 2016 and draw was 1500 every time. After publishing target figures in early March 2016 the target numbers decreased and the number of ITAs per draw decreased.

 

[nonnemacher]

Draw 38 - 468 points

Source: my wishful mind

 

[moderator1983]

I'm hoping to see a decline based on my theory....
477

 

[alexliu]

Draw 38 - 468 points

Source: my wishful mind

can you make it one score down? lol 467?

 

[nonnemacher]

can you make it one score down? lol 467?

Sure my friend, 467 it is!!

 

[vishal23489]

Not sure about guessing but my score is updated from 457 to 473 from my last IELTS result.

What do you guys think of this score?

 

[Heathcliff77]

Not sure about guessing but my score is updated from 457 to 473 from my last IELTS result.

What do you guys think of this score?

Very good score, if it doesn't drop start your French lessons

 

[vishal23489]

Very good score, if it doesn't drop start your French lessons

I do not know a single word in French. + already spent more than $1000 on IELTS.

I think score should really come down now on this Wednesday.

 

[nonnemacher]

I`m sitting at 469 after taking CELPIP for the second time

I believe that everybody over 450 will eventually receive the ITA, it`s just a matter of time

 

[johnjkjk]

Future CRS scores for 2016 can be reasonably determined from number of ITAs likely to be issued in the coming months. This in turn can be worked out from immigration targets based upon a number of factors. Note that the 2016 target figure is for the number of primary applicants PLUS their family members who actually land in 2016. I am working on these calculations but here is the basic premise:

1. ITAs issued do not equal visas issued. Some ITAs are never utilised. Many applications are rejected. Of those applications that are approved, note that visas are issued for primary applicants PLUS their family members so visas issued is a multiple of approved applications. These various ratios can be worked out, particularly ITA:visas.
2. ITAs from the latter 3-5 months of 2015 resulting in PR visas issued: Many may well arrive in 2016 so they come under the 2016 target. This can be worked out from 2015 end of year report.
3. ITAs fom first 6-9 months of 2016 resulting in PR visas issued: Many may well land this year so they come under 2016 target.
4. Pre-EE backlog is presumably being cleared regularly and it is intended for this to be fully cleared by Sep/Oct. In Targets it is stated that it pre-EE backlog will make up 50% of the 2016 target.
5. ITAs till June are known (but PNP to be discounted, see next point). Mid year report will be issued this month. Along with calculations from 2 and 3 above, this will determine how many PR migrants have landed so far and so how much of the target remains. 50% of the target can then be allocated to pre-EE and we can see what target remains.
6. Provincial nomination has its own target but EE-based provincial nominations contribute towards EE ITAs. 10-20% of PNPs use EE. Some provinces don't use EE at all. PNP EE quotas, which schemes are fully allocated, which are still open and how much quota left- this information is available and can be compiled. Then this figure needs to be discounted from all ITA calculations.
7. Let us say (random figure) that the 2016 target remaining is 20,000. Noting the average ITA:visas ratio calculated in (1) above, we can determine how many ITAs will be issued July through to September. This can be divided equally between 6 draws to get an indication of the average ITAs per draw. In practice some draws may be higher and some lower depending on how uniformly applications get processed.
8. Having calculated expected ITAs for July-Sep, the points cutoff per draw can be worked out by using data on point band distribution from 2015 annual report along with number of expected new entrants to the relevant points bands, number of expected LMIAs and the number of those in 451-481 band who have been building up over the past few months. The number of people sitting in these bands compared to the average number of ITAs available will tell you what the likely cutoff score is. In practice some draws may be higher and some lower depending on how uniformly applications get processed.
9. October to December ITAs will likely result in PR visas that can only land in 2017 so they come under next year's targets. As it is presumed that pre-EE backlog will have been cleared by then, if one assumes that the 2017 target will remain the same as 2016 (c.58k), one can reasonably calculate the average ITA per draw for EE based upon the average ITA:visas ratio calculated before (remember that PNP EE gets added to the real life figure), which just so happens to work out to be almost equal to the target number. The target may increase to 2015 figures (c.72k) if refugee quota is reduced for 2017. Currently, funding has been allocated for refugee welcome centres up to March 31, 2017, but it is likely that they have some ministerial guidance for the first quarter of 2017 by this time, even if the full year figure isn't made public until Jan 2017.
10. Oct-Dec points cutoff can be worked out like in point 8 above.
11. Jan 2017 onwards can be calculated depending on the published 2017 target and repeating all the steps above, excluding pre-EE which should have been cleared by then.

Guesswork:
- Without doing any calculations it can be reasonably expected that high scores will continue till September but whether it will reach the 470s is a big question for many and calculations will reveal this.
- whilst ITAs will increase October onwards but even if ITAs reach 2500+, whether this will be enough to lower scores depends on a number of factors. There tends to be a lot of people in the 450-460 and 470-480 bands and they would have been accumulating for many months, potentially pushing up the score cutoff, even if ITAs reach 2500-3000, it may take months for scores to go back down.

 

[Heathcliff77]

Last 3 comments: God bless your optimism and hope big time

 

[Alexios07]

7. Let us say (random figure) that the 2016 target remaining is 20,000. Noting the average ITA:visas ratio calculated in (1) above, we can determine how many ITAs will be issued July through to September. This can be divided equally between 6 draws to get an indication of the average ITAs per draw. In practice some draws may be higher and some lower depending on how uniformly applications get processed.

....

Guesswork:
- Without doing any calculations it can be reasonably expected that high scores will continue till September but whether it will reach the 470s is a big question for many and calculations will reveal this.
- whilst ITAs will increase October onwards but even if ITAs reach 2500+, whether this will be enough to lower scores depends on a number of factors. There tends to be a lot of people in the 450-460 and 470-480 bands and they would have been accumulating for many months, potentially pushing up the score cutoff, even if ITAs reach 2500-3000, it may take months for scores to go back down.

You do have some great points, and I want to add some more. We actually do have some reliable stats to do a guesstimation: HERE

Basically, IRCC has granted 42,642 PRs for the Economic stream off the 160,600 quota in the first three months of 2016. I'd say we will have the same number from March to present, so it would be another ~40,000. Therefore, we have around 80,000 ITAs left for this year which will be divided between multiple streams, including backlogs, Express Entry, Live-in caregivers, caregivers, Investor skilled trades and PNPs.

 

[LokiJr01]

So based on the analysis of many...I reckon the high scores will continue till September?

I'm hoping CIC will pull a surprise and set one low score draw before looping back to high score draws again hehe

 

[bestofluck]

The high scores will not continue till September, but you will see and number of invites increased in July end or August draw which will bring down the CRS drastically. It was a temporary decision to reduce the draw size and by now they would have completed their back log.( A temporary thing cant be as long as 6 months) So just wait for the draw with 1500 or more in near future.

Think Big and positive. It counts