36th Draw Forecast - Any Guesses?

[viveksegu]

I would believe this guy except that he said that the score for draws were averaging 420 to 450 (https://youtu.be/vaLvLG-6n3k?t=14m57s). This is bullshit, I've looked through all draws and the scores never went down 450. What do you think guys, is this a scam? Or was he just trying to trick the audience? lol

I am just trying hard to believe him. Just to give myself a little hope.

He was just saying what the thinking inside IRCC is. He does not know the actual scores because it does not matter to him. All he knows is because of the backlogs of unprocessed applications and the draw sizes are smaller at the moment. And it has to increase after the backlogs are cleared because that's the only way to apply for immigration.

This is also said in the year end report. So, I am inclined to believe him.

Again, it's just what I think and also just to increase the morale of everybody around here. If it's true we are all happy. If not, we can't do anything about it other than bickering about it here in the forum.

 

[deadbird]

Hi folks. I created a tool for visualizing future CRS draws ;D ;D

Check it out - http://therealdeadbird.github.io/canadaita/

The settings are completely customizable, so feel free to play around with it!

 

[Alexios07]

Imagine that you are a boss interviewing two persons, one with 5 years experience and another one - with one year of experience. Who will you hire in accordance to your needs?
That how it works.
Unfortunately, studies in Canada do not grant you PR and they never claimed to. Probably no country grants you PR after studies, moreover, they send you home right away after graduation with no work permit.
I wonder if people have experience in Canada, why they are sitting and waiting, not looking for LMIA, PNP or go to the province where 6 months are enough to apply?
Going to Canada for one year studies and even paying around $10000 for school does not buy you automatic or light-conditioned PR.

Based on your logic, no young newly-grad students will be able to find a job ever. People keep suggesting going for LMIA and PNPs. I'm sorry but have you ever tried those programs by yourself? ever head of something called "quota" ? There's not enough slots for everyone in the PNPs, and a large majority of mid/large companies will not spend time to apply LMIA for an ordinary employee, except for those small/family owned/fake companies.

I'm not saying just by studying in Canada you will be guaranteed to have a PR. What I want is different streams for different types of applicants. Split int'l students and skilled workers into two streams, and pick the top of those streams. Because for now, the top young int'l students cannot compete with top skilled workers applicants.

Yep, we need to wait until they implement the change. My guess on this is they will award more points for Canadian degree. For example, with the current system, there are no differences between Canadian degrees and foreign degrees, so the change will separate these field and put more points for Canadian degrees.

Next, they will regulate the claim of foreign work exp and possibly impose some kind of verification measure, like the Australian immigration system.

Right now, it absolutely makes no sense at all that for both applicants with same age, same degree (bachelor) and same ielts scores (max scores), but:

• One with 2 years Canadian work exp only has 469 points

while

• One with 1 year Canadian work exp and 1 year foreign work xp has 482

 

[Sluffy]

Based on your logic, no young newly-grad students will be able to find a job ever. People keep suggesting going for LMIA and PNPs. I'm sorry but have you ever tried those programs by yourself? ever head of something called "quota" ? There's not enough slots for everyone in the PNPs, and a large majority of mid/large companies will not spend time to apply LMIA for an ordinary employee, except for those small/family owned/fake companies.

I'm not saying just by studying in Canada you will be guaranteed to have a PR. What I want is different streams for different types of applicants. Split int'l students and skilled workers into two streams, and pick the top of those streams. Because for now, the top young int'l students cannot compete with top skilled workers applicants.

Well, yes, the scores are higher because they add transferability points for combination of canadian and foreign work experience. Probably because they value different experiences more, that makes you think deeply of what they want)

 

[LokiJr01]

There's this old saying that education can only get you so far and actual work experience is what matters in the real world. Same goes with immigration

Of course having an extensive credential on both areas (plus age and language proficiency) will score you big in the crs

 

[nighcrawler]

Hi folks. I created a tool for visualizing future CRS draws ;D ;D

Check it out - http://therealdeadbird.github.io/canadaita/

The settings are completely customizable, so feel free to play around with it!

it's really interesting, how true is the assumption of the normal distribution of applicant scores?

 

[jjose91]

So If I am right there will be one draw today ...

 

[LokiJr01]

Not tomorrow? Don't they usually hold draws on a Wednesday?

 

[jjose91]

oh ok then my bad..

might be tomorrow then.. !

 

[shariq123]

There's no set pattern if you look at the previous draws. And certainly there's nothing to suggest that the draw always happens on a Wednesday. Generally the time is at most 2 weeks. It hardly goes more than 2 weeks (maybe once in 4-5 months). So the draw could be either today or tomorrow. Most likely tomorrow I think.

 

[deadbird]

it's really interesting, how true is the assumption of the normal distribution of applicant scores?

Yeah, one can't know for sure without doing a principled analysis using historical data. However, the choice of a normal distribution seems pretty reasonable ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem )

 

[alexliu]

Should be tomorrow, ~480 if 800 invitations. If 1000 then could be lower than 470.

 

[Alexios07]

Well, yes, the scores are higher because they add transferability points for combination of canadian and foreign work experience. Probably because they value different experiences more, that makes you think deeply of what they want)

The only thing I can think deeply about is that a pretty huge loop hole that many people are taking advantage of. Using non verifiable foreign work exp to claim more point, so easy to fake. I'm wondering how many applicants have been granted PR based on those fake foreign exp while people with real Canadian work exp are left out.

 

[Sluffy]

The only thing I can think deeply about is that a pretty huge loop hole that many people are taking advantage of. Using non verifiable foreign work exp to claim more point, so easy to fake. I'm wondering how many applicants have been granted PR based on those fake foreign exp while people with real Canadian work exp are left out.

Oh really? and do you know how many people pay for LMIA? or for 'canadian experience' reference letters?
For you to know, foreigners do not only send reference letters, they often bring tax declarations, references from pension savings funds, moreover, their employers are called to verify the reference. Do you know that in former USSR countries there's a special document (official one!) where all jobs are tracked from the very beginning? Lots of official documents.
Have you seen how many rejections due to non-appropriate references are made?
So please don't consider yourself as a poor thing and foreigners as cheaters.

 

[dell2]

Draw on 15th June ?