34TH DRAW - 484 POINTS, 763 ITAs. Could this be a declining trend in ITAs?

[bestofluck]

If you listened to the video shared earlier here, CIC expects EE to be the sole program sometimes around september and they are likely to increase the draw size to 2500+ and by their own admission, they expect the scores to go below 400 points.

And there shall be one more way...to pause the Express Entry creating new profiles and than also scores go below 400. They are used to the notifications saying "There is a temporary pause for creating new Express Entry profiles"

 

[sunnyvin]

Even if they increase draw sizes to 2500, there are enough applicants just between 430 and 449 to keep the cutoff high for the medium term. The pool composition won't change overnight and lower cutoffs will probably attract more potential applicants in the 400+ bracket to sign up for EE. Despite what that IRCC official said in the seminar, economic immigration targets are unlikely to be significantly revised anytime in the near future hence cutoff scores aren't likely to fall below 430. Not to mention the fact that they may rejig the CRS system later this year (more points for CWE, more points for siblings in Canada, lesser points for LMIA jobs...) and that would change the points dynamics all over again.
[/quote

Changes are expected post July once the parliamentary comnitee submits it's report. The c17 bill will also be passed as law. Changes have been made.

Expect points for international students
Point for families
one important thing public pressure will increase all those who voted for the new Prime minister

 

[Asivad Anac]

Changes are expected post July once the parliamentary comnitee submits it's report. The c17 bill will also be passed as law. Changes have been made.

Expect points for international students
Point for families
one important thing public pressure will increase all those who voted for the new Prime minister

The relevant pressure would be from industry associations (who need access to talent), educational institutions (who need to keep attracting students aspiring towards PR) and 'immigrant-rich' constituencies (who probably need friends and family to join them inside Canada). And probably in that order. There doesn't really appear to be any generic 'public' pressure for now.

 

[Encore]

And I have no idea what value we have in all these analysis when we do not have the correct variables.
On this forum, we have predicted a CRS below 450 in the new year, but things quickly turned. Instead we started seeing higher CRS. We started seeing lower ITAs. What else do we need to show we don/t benefit particularly from any analytical calculations of the future of EE? It is obvious that it is a pool just like any other lottery. I am sorry if the word lottery is a bit extreme, but to me that is what it is. It coud go any way. We do not know the internal discussions at CIC, so lets leave this issue. Its irking a little bit.

 

[Asivad Anac]

And I have no idea what value we have in all these analysis when we do not have the correct variables.
On this forum, we have predicted a CRS below 450 in the new year, but things quickly turned. Instead we started seeing higher CRS. We started seeing lower ITAs. What else do we need to show we don/t benefit particularly from any analytical calculations of the future of EE? It is obvious that it is a pool just like any other lottery. I am sorry if the word lottery is a bit extreme, but to me that is what it is. It coud go any way. We do not know the internal discussions at CIC, so lets leave this issue. Its irking a little bit.

The only possible benefit of this analysis would be in convincing someone at a sub 450 score to start considering options to either enhance their score or look for alternative destinations. Forum discussions will never be able to really predict the cutoff for a draw as members aren't privy to the pool composition. But one can make broad-based inferences based on publicly available information.

 

[sunnyvin]

The only possible benefit of this analysis would be in convincing someone at a sub 450 score to start considering options to either enhance their score or look for alternative destinations. Forum discussions will never be able to really predict the cutoff for a draw as members aren't privy to the pool composition. But one can make broad-based inferences based on publicly available information.

We can be optimistic about it the spokesperson in the video spoke about the last draw and predicted future draws until Oct will be smaller in size. This draw was again low Ita he was correct.
Not to forget pnp that would open up line the later half of the year.

 

[Asivad Anac]

We can be optimistic about it the spokesperson in the video spoke about the last draw and predicted future draws until Oct will be smaller in size. This draw was again low Ita he was correct.
Not to forget pnp that would open up line the later half of the year.

Unfortunately that would be misplaced optimism. This was one speaker at a random seminar so their words cannot be taken as gospel. Published information on IRCC site can (and must) be considered more factual than loosely thrown remarks at a seminar. The speaker did not have accurate data all the time and was speaking in 'ranges' instead of specifics. Additionally, that speaker isn't probably privy to legislative changes that may impact CRS in the near future. They aren't privy to anticipated economic immigration targets for 2017. They aren't privy to future pool composition later in the year. In that sense, that speaker is probably not better informed than forum members who have been gleaning EE pool specific information from IRCC site since mid 2015.

When that speaker 'casually' remarks that the cutoff may go below 400, that is contrary to everything made publicly available by IRCC about pool composition. As on Jan 1 2016, there were 13,537 active candidates in the pool just between 400 and 449! And 1613 more between 450 and 499. The pool is stable enough for those numbers to be fairly representative in nature for any random period between draws. Even if IRCC pulls out 5000 ITAs/month, those numbers alone will carry the tempo for 3-4 months. And more people will join in those 3-4 months. Plus PNPs will give out 600 points. Plus LMIAs will kick in for a few applicants. So the optimism about score falling below 430 anytime in the near future is misplaced. And dangerous because it feeds false hope where there should be none.

 

[sunnyvin]

Unfortunately that would be misplaced optimism. This was one speaker at a random seminar so their words cannot be taken as gospel. Published information on IRCC site can (and must) be considered more factual than loosely thrown remarks at a seminar. The speaker did not have accurate data all the time and was speaking in 'ranges' instead of specifics. Additionally, that speaker isn't probably privy to legislative changes that may impact CRS in the near future. They aren't privy to anticipated economic immigration targets for 2017. They aren't privy to future pool composition later in the year. In that sense, that speaker is probably not better informed than forum members who have been gleaning EE pool specific information from IRCC site since mid 2015.

When that speaker 'casually' remarks that the cutoff may go below 400, that is contrary to everything made publicly available by IRCC about pool composition. As on Jan 1 2016, there were 13,537 active candidates in the pool just between 400 and 449! And 1613 more between 450 and 499. The pool is stable enough for those numbers to be fairly representative in nature for any random period between draws. Even if IRCC pulls out 5000 ITAs/month, those numbers alone will carry the tempo for 3-4 months. And more people will join in those 3-4 months. Plus PNPs will give out 600 points. Plus LMIAs will kick in for a few applicants. So the optimism about score falling below 430 anytime in the near future is misplaced. And dangerous because it feeds false hope where there should be none.

Let's c the trend in September October .
waiting for changes to come into effect.


Let's hope it falls below 400 ...

Any idea of siblings points how much n when are they changes

 

[aircanada]

Nobody could know how many points for siblings. And the rumoured changes may not take affect this year at all. They might not even introduce a single improvement. You should not make plans based on such assumptions.

 

[sudin.iem]

Any ITA issued today?

 

[amir_ca]

Any ITA issued today?

not yet!

 

[Fatemeh Njm]

not yet!

hope there will be good news for those waiting...

 

[jairichi]

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/mi/
483 points 762 invites.

 

[dell2]

Well it is declining lol

 

[wenfeizh]

less # of invitations but not seeing increased speed of application processing.


SHAME