34TH DRAW - 484 POINTS, 763 ITAs. Could this be a declining trend in ITAs?

[Naveen Padmanabhan]

sitting @ 475 ...sigh. was at 420 and then I improved my ielts score. i hope they come down in the next draw.

 

[bestofluck]

We don't know that at all. It could simply be that they are focusing more on refugees, or on family class, or even that they haven't hired as many temporary agents this summer in order to save money. They might simply be processing fewer people.

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[SameerAtre]

This is exactly what I am worried about. Any place that we can find out the exact reason/ Canadian government's intentions in reducing the intake?

And any way that we can determine when the next draw will be?

 

[bestofluck]

sitting @ 475 ...sigh. was at 420 and then I improved my ielts score. i hope they come down in the next draw.

congrats for that scores. it will definitely go below 475 very soon. good luck

 

[SameerAtre]

Waiting at 481 here. Missed by 3 points in this round

 

[Andre_Smol]

This is exactly what I am worried about. Any place that we can find out the exact reason/ Canadian government's intentions in reducing the intake?

And any way that we can determine when the next draw will be?

Nothing beyond an educated guess based on existing patterns.

Unfortunately, IRCC still refuses to share their internal memos with us.

 

[BA2LAMAZ]

Waiting at 481 here. Missed by 3 points in this round

All things been equal, you should get an invite within the next two draws. So be happy

 

[moderator1983]

I think if we've learned anything so far, it's that there is no trend per se in terms of score.

Well, its difficult to create a transfer function (or in other words a 'formula') to determine the the CRS of applicants in the pool, its something highly nondeterministic.
However, cutoff score, I strongly believe, is selected by the IRCC to limit the ITA# and hence ITA# can be fitted into some kind of function.

The decline trend of ITA# can be backed by theories of 'limiting ITA because of annual quota' or 'clearing pending application'....

 

[Asivad Anac]

Well, its difficult to create a transfer function (or in other words a 'formula') to determine the the CRS of applicants in the pool, its something highly nondeterministic.
However, cutoff score, I strongly believe, is selected by the IRCC to limit the ITA# and hence ITA# can be fitted into some kind of function.

The decline trend of ITA# can be backed by theories of 'limiting ITA because of annual quota' or 'clearing pending application'....

Precisely.

The single most important determinant isn't the cutoff score though. It is the number of ITAs/draw. The cutoff score is a derivative and doesn't mean anything by itself. When IRCC was doling out 1500 ITAs/draw, the cutoff score hovered between 450 and 470 depending on draw frequency. When they sent out 1000 ITAs/draw, it hovered between 460 and 480 instead. Now that they're down to 800 ITAs/draw, the cutoff score has further increased to the 480+ bracket.

Given that the pool is fairly stable in the medium term both in terms of applicant spread across points AND number of active applicants in the pool at any random point in time, one would expect the cutoff to fall down to 450s if and when IRCC gets to 1500 ITAs/draw. It would fall below 450 if and when IRCC offers >1500 ITAs/draw and/or increases the number of draws/month.

This is probably completely determined by IRCC's annual economic immigration target and non-EE routes of economic immigration. Economic immigration targets for 2016 were revised downwards by nearly 20% and IRCC has enough backlogs from pre-EE era to last them till mid 2016 or probably beyond that. And there are provincial non-EE economic immigration programs as well. Overall, one can expect that the ITAs/cutoff would increase (hence cutoff would reduce) if and when EE is the primary driver of economic immigration. This may happen as soon as Summer 2016 or, more likely, towards the end of this year. These would further be impacted by Canada's economic immigration targets for 2017 which may be announced by the end of this year.

 

[softwaretesting]

Precisely.

The single most important determinant isn't the cutoff score though. It is the number of ITAs/draw. The cutoff score is a derivative and doesn't mean anything by itself. When IRCC was doling out 1500 ITAs/draw, the cutoff score hovered between 450 and 470 depending on draw frequency. When they sent out 1000 ITAs/draw, it hovered between 460 and 480 instead. Now that they're down to 800 ITAs/draw, the cutoff score has further increased to the 480+ bracket.

Given that the pool is fairly stable in the medium term both in terms of applicant spread across points AND number of active applicants in the pool at any random point in time, one would expect the cutoff to fall down to 450s if and when IRCC gets to 1500 ITAs/draw. It would fall below 450 if and when IRCC offers >1500 ITAs/draw and/or increases the number of draws/month.

This is probably completely determined by IRCC's annual economic immigration target and non-EE routes of economic immigration. Economic immigration targets for 2016 were revised downwards by nearly 20% and IRCC has enough backlogs from pre-EE era to last them till mid 2016 or probably beyond that. And there are provincial non-EE economic immigration programs as well. Overall, one can expect that the ITAs/cutoff would increase (hence cutoff would reduce) if and when EE is the primary driver of economic immigration. This may happen as soon as Summer 2016 or, more likely, towards the end of this year. These would further be impacted by Canada's economic immigration targets for 2017 which may be announced by the end of this year.

+1

 

[aunty acid]

Precisely.

The single most important determinant isn't the cutoff score though. It is the number of ITAs/draw. The cutoff score is a derivative and doesn't mean anything by itself. When IRCC was doling out 1500 ITAs/draw, the cutoff score hovered between 450 and 470 depending on draw frequency. When they sent out 1000 ITAs/draw, it hovered between 460 and 480 instead. Now that they're down to 800 ITAs/draw, the cutoff score has further increased to the 480+ bracket.

Given that the pool is fairly stable in the medium term both in terms of applicant spread across points AND number of active applicants in the pool at any random point in time, one would expect the cutoff to fall down to 450s if and when IRCC gets to 1500 ITAs/draw. It would fall below 450 if and when IRCC offers >1500 ITAs/draw and/or increases the number of draws/month.

This is probably completely determined by IRCC's annual economic immigration target and non-EE routes of economic immigration. Economic immigration targets for 2016 were revised downwards by nearly 20% and IRCC has enough backlogs from pre-EE era to last them till mid 2016 or probably beyond that. And there are provincial non-EE economic immigration programs as well. Overall, one can expect that the ITAs/cutoff would increase (hence cutoff would reduce) if and when EE is the primary driver of economic immigration. This may happen as soon as Summer 2016 or, more likely, towards the end of this year. These would further be impacted by Canada's economic immigration targets for 2017 which may be announced by the end of this year.

Thanks ...feeling lot better +1

 

[monavy]

If you listened to the video shared earlier here, CIC expects EE to be the sole program sometimes around september and they are likely to increase the draw size to 2500+ and by their own admission, they expect the scores to go below 400 points.

 

[roshantrv83]

If you listened to the video shared earlier here, CIC expects EE to be the sole program sometimes around september and they are likely to increase the draw size to 2500+ and by their own admission, they expect the scores to go below 400 points.

Score never comes below 450.
For 700 candidates, score remains same around 470-480.
Other wise no of intake should be more than 1800 per draw.

 

[sunnyvin]

Precisely.

The single most important determinant isn't the cutoff score though. It is the number of ITAs/draw. The cutoff score is a derivative and doesn't mean anything by itself. When IRCC was doling out 1500 ITAs/draw, the cutoff score hovered between 450 and 470 depending on draw frequency. When they sent out 1000 ITAs/draw, it hovered between 460 and 480 instead. Now that they're down to 800 ITAs/draw, the cutoff score has further increased to the 480+ bracket.

Given that the pool is fairly stable in the medium term both in terms of applicant spread across points AND number of active applicants in the pool at any random point in time, one would expect the cutoff to fall down to 450s if and when IRCC gets to 1500 ITAs/draw. It would fall below 450 if and when IRCC offers >1500 ITAs/draw and/or increases the number of draws/month.

This is probably completely determined by IRCC's annual economic immigration target and non-EE routes of economic immigration. Economic immigration targets for 2016 were revised downwards by nearly 20% and IRCC has enough backlogs from pre-EE era to last them till mid 2016 or probably beyond that. And there are provincial non-EE economic immigration programs as well. Overall, one can expect that the ITAs/cutoff would increase (hence cutoff would reduce) if and when EE is the primary driver of economic immigration. This may happen as soon as Summer 2016 or, more likely, towards the end of this year. These would further be impacted by Canada's economic immigration targets for 2017 which may be announced by the end of this year.

Attended the recent Edmonton seminar for new immigrants draw size to remain low till Oct as backlog gets clear draw size will rise to 2500 to 3000 from October expect score to fall below 400. IRCC spokesperson was there to inform immigrants.

 

[Asivad Anac]

Attended the recent Edmonton seminar for new immigrants draw size to remain low till Oct as backlog gets clear draw size will rise to 2500 to 3000 from October expect score to fall below 400. IRCC spokesperson was there to inform immigrants.

If you listened to the video shared earlier here, CIC expects EE to be the sole program sometimes around september and they are likely to increase the draw size to 2500+ and by their own admission, they expect the scores to go below 400 points.

Even if they increase draw sizes to 2500, there are enough applicants just between 430 and 460s to keep the cutoff high for the medium term. The pool composition won't change overnight and lower cutoffs will probably attract more potential applicants in the 400+ bracket to sign up for EE. Despite what that IRCC official said in the seminar, economic immigration targets are unlikely to be significantly revised anytime in the near future hence cutoff scores aren't likely to fall below 430. Not to mention the fact that they may rejig the CRS system later this year (more points for CWE, more points for siblings in Canada, lesser points for LMIA jobs...) and that would change the points dynamics all over again.