31st draw 954 invitations 470

[av]

lets hope so brother

you are at 469, ohh man, so close and still so far, lets pray for both of us

 

[snorden88]

This Ita has been a bit gloomy one. Nobody wants to congratulate those who received it.

 

[twztedelegance]

yes...in these dark days atleast there are others here who understand the pain of immigration. all my friends are canadians and when i try to discuss what is happening with them they just can't relate as they never went through this struggle, some of them even asked me whats permanent residency lol

 

[aayushri]

Even i was desperately waiting for this draw (467). Extremely disheartened.

 

[nmeka]

Congrats to everyone who got their ITA's today and good luck to all who are still waiting..

 

[cyt0plas]

From what I see here http://eefacts.com/ (the second chart and the following list) there was only one draw under 1000 invitations (apart from the starting ones), ant it was the first draw of April last year. Is there anything special in April? End of some-kind of quota? Or something related to financial year?

It looks like they are decreasing the number of applicants drawn this year to keep the points high, rather than decreasing the number of draws per applicant.

At least the liberals will make sure they can process refugees and family class quickly.

 

[anti_maniac]

congratulations to everyone who got it...and all the best to those waiting.

 

[anarsoul]

It looks like they are decreasing the number of applicants drawn this year to keep the points high, rather than decreasing the number of draws per applicant.

At least the liberals will make sure they can process refugees and family class quickly.

They don't have intention to keep points high, they just need to fit this year into quota. Liberals cut EE quota by 20% this year, and since rougly half of 2015 EE applicants will get a visa in 2016, and quotas are for visas, not for ITAs, it is very likely that number of invitation per draw is ~1000 for this year.

 

[Aragorn165]

Congratulations to all who received their ITAs today.

For everyone else- the floor for these ITAs seems like it will remain low for a while- this is something I actually projected back in late February. It sounds like a combination of backlogs+the influx of PNP candidates towards the end of 2015+the revision of immigration targets to favor refugees over economic immigrants (for now) is pushing the number of economic applicants who are picked with each draw down- and the number of applicants is inversely proportional to the cutoff scores, which is why the scores themselves are being pushed up.
I do think that this trend may continue through to the end of April, at the very least, and possibly until the end of May too- my reason for thinking this is that it appears as though the maximum number of applicants in the backlog are all from the last quarter of 2015 (Oct-Dec)- the number of candidates last year was very backloaded, which means that the current CIC backlog mostly consists of candidates from late last year, as it would at the best of times, but owing to the unnaturally high number of candidates from the end of last year, it also means that CIC is constraining new applicants even more right now than they ordinarily would, given the change in their immigration priorities.
However, given CIC's targets for processing 80% of received applications within six months, most of these applications should be processed by the end of May, at which point the bulk of CIC's backlog will be comprised of applicants from this year- and as this year's ITAs will attest, there aren't a whole lot of applicants from this year, meaning the pressure on CIC should be eased, causing them to relax the constraints on new ITAs issued somewhat.

What does this mean for you? It means that by the end of May, CIC will start issuing slightly more ITAs than they do now- my prediction would have them issue about ~1,200 ITAs per draw, up from the current ~1000. The good news is, this will cause the cutoffs to drop- we will at least see them go as low as the low 460s. So those of you in that bracket just need to hold on for another couple of months.
What's the bad news? The bad news is that given the downward revision of economic immigration targets, the number of ITAs issues is unlikely to go back up to 1,500 per draw this year, like it was last year, meaning that for the foreseeable future, we may not drop back to 450 as the floor for cutoffs.

 

[anarsoul]

What does this mean for you? It means that by the end of May, CIC will start issuing slightly more ITAs than they do now- my prediction would have them issue about ~1,200 ITAs per draw, up from the current ~1000.

Your prediction is a bit optimistic.

I agree with you that according to the quota expected ITA per draw is 1200 for this year.

But the issue is that they still have to process ITAs issued in July-2015 - end of February 2015, which were 1500 per draw. It's roughly 300 * 2 * 8 = 4800 extra ITAs. To deal with it, they have to make 4800 / 500 = 9.6, i.e. ~10 draws with 1000 ITAs per draw. They already made 3, 7 to go.

So my prediction is that they'll probably increase number of ITAs per draw at the end of July.

 

[Aragorn165]

Your prediction is a bit optimistic.

I agree with you that according to the quota expected ITA per draw is 1200 for this year.

But the issue is that they still have to process ITAs issued in July-2015 - end of February 2015, which were 1500 per draw. It's roughly 300 * 2 * 8 = 4800 extra ITAs. To deal with it, they have to make 4800 / 500 = 9.6, i.e. ~10 draws with 1000 ITAs per draw. They already made 3, 7 to go.

So my prediction is that they'll probably increase number of ITAs per draw at the end of July.

While this is true, most applications from the end of July 2015 through to the middle of October are at this point already processed and cleared- you need to account for the fact that only 20% of those applications still factor into the backlog. Then, too, you must also consider that by the end of May, the same will be true of all applications through to the end of December- only 20% of those still remain in the backlog.
This naturally means that the number of draws with 1000 ITAs will not need to be quite as high as 10, although yes, maybe the end of May is a bit too optimistic as well.
Maybe some time in June? The last June draw may be when things normalize around 1200 ITAs per draw.

 

[anarsoul]

While this is true, most applications from the end of July 2015 through to the middle of October are at this point already processed and cleared- you need to account for the fact that only 20% of those applications still factor into the backlog. Then, too, you must also consider that by the end of May, the same will be true of all applications through to the end of December- only 20% of those still remain in the backlog.
This naturally means that the number of draws with 1000 ITAs will not need to be quite as high as 10, although yes, maybe the end of May is a bit too optimistic as well.
Maybe some time in June? The last June draw may be when things normalize around 1200 ITAs per draw.

I'm July 2015 applicant, I got my visa only in January 2016, same is true for most FSW July applicants. It doesn't matter if backlog is cleared or not, they still have to fit into quota.

 

[Aragorn165]

I'm July 2015 applicant, I got my visa only in January 2016, same is true for most FSW July applicants.

Exactly- that places you at the six month limit.
By May, most December applicants will also be at the six month limit- by CIC's own estimations, this means that 80% of them will have had their files processed by then. This leaves 20%, which means only a fifth of the applicants will be left.
I also do want to point out that we cannot use the number of ITAs to calculate the extra number of applicants- not every applicant who received an ITA applied, after all.
This would ordinarily mean that by the end of May, the cutoffs for ITAs should have settled- but like I said, there are other factors (as well as the fact that any calculation made here is an estimate and a guess) that will probably interfere, and leave us with a margin of +/- ~2 weeks on either side.
That's how I look at it- I may be wrong, of course! In the end, no one except CIC can know

 

[anarsoul]

Exactly- that places you at the six month limit.
By May, most December applicants will also be at the six month limit- by CIC's own estimations, this means that 80% of them will have had their files processed by then. This leaves 20%, which means only a fifth of the applicants will be left.

Did you read my last post? July 2015 - December 2015 will get (or already got) visas in 2016, so they should be considered as a part of 2016 quota.

I also do want to point out that we cannot use the number of ITAs to calculate the extra number of applicants- not every applicant who received an ITA applied, after all.

It's usually accounted in a number of issued ITAs. I.e. CIC expects that only certain amount of ITA will be used, and only certain of applicants will be approved.

That's how I look at it- I may be wrong, of course! In the end, no one except CIC can know

Yeah, we'll see

 

[tp_marina]

Your prediction is a bit optimistic.

I agree with you that according to the quota expected ITA per draw is 1200 for this year.

But the issue is that they still have to process ITAs issued in July-2015 - end of February 2015, which were 1500 per draw. It's roughly 300 * 2 * 8 = 4800 extra ITAs. To deal with it, they have to make 4800 / 500 = 9.6, i.e. ~10 draws with 1000 ITAs per draw. They already made 3, 7 to go.

So my prediction is that they'll probably increase number of ITAs per draw at the end of July.

Can someone please explain what this calculations mean? 300*2*8 - what is 300, what is 2, what is 8? Also why 4800/500? I'm trying to understand this better