20th Draw - Realistic expectations?

[cyronn]

Guys,

Any comments on the possibility of a 20th draw soon? Historically, the scores seem to drop if draws happen closer together. Conservatively assuming a draw in the first week of Nov (2 weeks from 19th draw), can we hope for the ITA scores to drop to around 450 or even slightly lower? Or will more Provincial Nominations come in, resulting in the scores being high ( > 480) for remaining draws as well?

Also, considering CIC had estimated between 15-25 draws in 2015 and 19 draws already done, what are the chances CIC might stops draws altogether for 2015 or can we hope for atleast 2 or 3 more draws?

 

[manidhatt]

I'd guess 460+

 

[Bahamas]

There should be 3-4 more draws this year.
I would not expect the CSR to be lower than 450.

 

[tomneversfield]

I expect a draw next week with a minimum score of 465

 

[polcoin]

30th October with a cutoff between 450 and 460

 

[RamsayBolton]

My guess is there will be no draws with score under 450 until mid 2016, when the new government is fully running and have time for the EE.

 

[Banff2015]

515 next draw

 

[bestofluck]

Well guys Everyone knows IF they invite only 1500 people every 14 days the scores would drop slowly and might be 471....460 ...in next few draws.

The only thing now remains is to watch out if they complete all 25 Draws and whether they invite more than 1500 people> IF they want to complete 25 Draws they will have one or 2 draws which are in a gap on 1 week. Or otherwise if they try to complete some quota and increase the number of invitations they scores might drop back to 450 or say a bit less.

To me it seems they would invite more people in because that's the easiest change the new government can do without any amendment. So they would start with the first step i.e to increase the number of invitations. Lets hope guys the scores come back to 3450 as soon as possible.

20th draw.......471.....I expect it on this 30th October itself
21st Draw.......460.....
22nd Draw......450

 

[cyronn]

Doesn't look like CIC is going to change the approx 1500 ITAs in every draw strategy. It could be the number they can process, around 3000 a month or so. In that case the only variable remaining is the number of draws left in this year. Optimistically speaking 2 more draws every month leaves about 4 draws for this year. In which case we definitely should see scores dropping below 450 atleast by the last draw of this year, if and its a big if, CIC doesn't have a backlog of Provincial Nominations to clear.

 

[JoacRy]

Hi all, new to the forum. I am sitting on a score of 486 and eagerly awaiting the next draw. According to my profile I satisfy the 'CEC' having completed 1 year of work in my field. How realistic do you think it could come below 486?

Thank you for your replies.

 

[Baljas]

Hi all, new to the forum. I am sitting on a score of 486 and eagerly awaiting the next draw. According to my profile I satisfy the 'CEC' having completed 1 year of work in my field. How realistic do you think it could come below 486?

Thank you for your replies.

I'm pretty sure next draw will be around 460 so u ll certainly get an invite next draw. I am on 473 and I m expecting an invite next draw.

 

[cyronn]

Hi all, new to the forum. I am sitting on a score of 486 and eagerly awaiting the next draw. According to my profile I satisfy the 'CEC' having completed 1 year of work in my field. How realistic do you think it could come below 486?

Thank you for your replies.

486 should get you an invite in the next draw.

 

[nickarter84]

Could be 459

 

[cyronn]

Could be 459

30 point drop from previous score. Possible if no more PN backlog to clear. What are the chances it will happen this friday?

 

[bestofluck]

30 point drop from previous score. Possible if no more PN backlog to clear. What are the chances it will happen this friday?

The chances are 80 percent. They have had neck to neck draws in past and its been long we have seen one. The second reason to me would be Chris making a last Draw before leaving.