20th Draw - A Big One

[bestofluck]

20th Draw if it happens on 30th October ( as Chris would like to make a draw before he leaves the office) It might be a Mile stone in the Express Entry system when scores would go just below 450 say 448.

I definitely feel there would be a Draw on 30th October.

 

[bestofluck]

Feel free to express yourself. What do do thin of this Express Entry and the Draws.

 

[bestofluck]

January 31 to February 7 Scores fall from 886 t0 818
Again it came down on Feb 27 to 735
Once again a drop on March 20 up to 481
And still dropped down on March 27 to 453

So many instances when scores have dropped down and still you all are worried? I mean if someone says it wont drop down below 450 you all take it so seriously? Why don't u see the statistics. There are instances when PNP get in the pool in a block. Again they make a draw in 7 days and compensate. So the scores again might be 450 anytime. Why do u worry guys.

Hopes are our assets don't let them die

I conclude from above Statistics that there are great chances of a Draw on 30th October which should again bring back the hopes in you.

 

[hossamo33]

Impossible to tell. Too many unkown factors. If the current pool has around 1500 applicants with a score above 450, then it will not go below that score. Out of around 6 billion people around the world, it's not that hard to have at least 1500 applicants with a score higher than 450. Even if the current pool does not have 1500 candidates with a score higher than 450, the draw will be delayed. Nothing to do with Chris.

Having said that, its still impossible to predict anything. All these posts and threads are useless to be honest. You just have to wait and see..

 

[sameer_mobin]

Impossible to tell. Too many unkown factors. If the current pool has around 1500 applicants with a score above 450, then it will not go below that score. Out of around 6 billion people around the world, it's not that hard to have at least 1500 applicants with a score higher than 450. Even if the current pool does not have 1500 candidates with a score higher than 450, the draw will be delayed. Nothing to do with Chris.

Having said that, its still impossible to predict anything. All these posts and threads are useless to be honest. You just have to wait and see..

I agree with Hossamo33. I also appreciate bestofluck for keeping hopes alive.

I have been reading around the forums for predictions. Although its interesting but no one here is a representative of the Canadian Govt. So we cannot take any predictions for granted.

As I notice, its a variable. Maybe they will jump to, for example, 430 once and then maintain 470 in the future. All in all, no one has complete knowledge. Similiar is the case with OOPNP. My score is 440. There are many in 470s or 460s who didn't get PNP Ontario.

its "wait and watch" game. As I say to myself, go on with normal life, wait for a surprise one day with an e-mail in your account. (fingers crossed).

 

[Jad77]

I agree with Hossamo33. I also appreciate bestofluck for keeping hopes alive.

I have been reading around the forums for predictions. Although its interesting but no one here is a representative of the Canadian Govt. So we cannot take any predictions for granted.

As I notice, its a variable. Maybe they will jump to, for example, 430 once and then maintain 470 in the future. All in all, no one has complete knowledge. Similiar is the case with OOPNP. My score is 440. There are many in 470s or 460s who didn't get PNP Ontario.

its "wait and watch" game. As I say to myself, go on with normal life, wait for a surprise one day with an e-mail in your account. (fingers crossed).

Exactly, but now there is a pattern,
the last draw, was a three week draw with apparently a load of PNP from Ontario (a huge block),
Ontario had 2700 PNP to offer since June, now they are ending, so no more +600points to add for applicants,

without Ontario PNp, there is more or less 70 applicants entering the pool per day who have a score of +450.

if we take the assumption of "bestofluck" = a draw for this next friday >> within the range 450 to 489 (last draw), they are probably 500 to 700 applicants (more or less) + 70 applicants per day (or so) + no more or very little Ontario PNP, we can witness a decrease of the cutoff to 448 or even to 445 !!! (With the usual 1500 ITAs)...
This assumption is a real possiblility.

and if the draw happens, on the 6th of November, with no PNP to offer from Ontario, we can see a cutoff back to 460 or 470...

All depends on how much PNP had got ITAs on the last draw, and how much PNP they'll offer until the next draw >>>

My assumption is that next draw will occur on the 6th of November, so that they'll not lower the cutoff too quickly...

 

[sameer_mobin]

Exactly, but now there is a pattern,
the last draw, was a three week draw with apparently a load of PNP from Ontario (a huge block),
Ontario had 2700 PNP to offer since June, now they are ending, so no more +600points to add for applicants,

without Ontario PNp, there is more or less 70 applicants entering the pool per day who have a score of +450.

if we take the assumption of "bestofluck" = a draw for this next friday >> within the range 450 to 489 (last draw), they are probably 500 to 700 applicants (more or less) + 70 applicants per day (or so) + no more or very little Ontario PNP, we can witness a decrease of the cutoff to 448 or even to 445 !!! (With the usual 1500 ITAs)...
This assumption is a possiblility.

and if the draw happens, on the 6th of November, with no PNP to offer from Ontario, we can see a cutoff back to 460 or 470...

All depends on how much PNP had got ITAs on the last draw, and how much PNP they'll offer until the next draw >>>

My assumption is that next draw will occur on the 6th of November, so that they'll not lower the cutoff too quickly...

@Jad

Explain me one thing. I am unable to understand as I am new to all these calculations.

How come score 489 includes people who got OOPNP. I mean their score would be in 1000s by now right?

What I am nt getting is that how 489 tells us that there are people in this who fot PNPs.

Please do explain to me. Thanks.

 

[Canadaprseeker]

Hope it is not a big bomb like previous draw

 

[PiyushAgrawal06121985]

"Ontario had 2700 PNP to offer since June, now they are ending, so no more +600points to add for applicants"

Yikes, I am about to send my documents for processing.. :-(

Exactly, but now there is a pattern,
the last draw, was a three week draw with apparently a load of PNP from Ontario (a huge block),
Ontario had 2700 PNP to offer since June, now they are ending, so no more +600points to add for applicants,

without Ontario PNp, there is more or less 70 applicants entering the pool per day who have a score of +450.

if we take the assumption of "bestofluck" = a draw for this next friday >> within the range 450 to 489 (last draw), they are probably 500 to 700 applicants (more or less) + 70 applicants per day (or so) + no more or very little Ontario PNP, we can witness a decrease of the cutoff to 448 or even to 445 !!! (With the usual 1500 ITAs)...
This assumption is a possiblility.

and if the draw happens, on the 6th of November, with no PNP to offer from Ontario, we can see a cutoff back to 460 or 470...

All depends on how much PNP had got ITAs on the last draw, and how much PNP they'll offer until the next draw >>>

My assumption is that next draw will occur on the 6th of November, so that they'll not lower the cutoff too quickly...

 

[Jad77]

"Ontario had 2700 PNP to offer since June, now they are ending, so no more +600points to add for applicants"

Yikes, I am about to send my documents for processing.. :-(

if you are sending your documents, that means you got a nomination ! congrats...

 

[Jad77]

@Jad

Explain me one thing. I am unable to understand as I am new to all these calculations.
How come score 489 includes people who got OOPNP. I mean their score would be in 1000s by now right?
What I am nt getting is that how 489 tells us that there are people in this who fot PNPs.

Please do explain to me. Thanks.

here is the exlpanation, when applicants got a nomination and send there documents, they receive +600 points and they remain on the pool.
for exemple : Mister X entered the pool in June with CRS of 400 points, he got a nomination in september en send his documents, few days after he received a +600 points and then got in ITA in October (with a new CRS of 1000 points).

So the cutoff increases !
Mister X should not have received an ITA if he hadn't been selected by Ontario.
(Mister X was in the range below 450 and he became within the range far up450points).
So in fact the Cutoff goes up artificially, by the PNPs.
if there was no pnp we would witness a slight decrease on the cutoff until we reach +1500 applicants entering the pool (every 2 weeks) at a certain CRS that equal the Cutoff target. (for instance, in average 108 applicants entering the pool each day at a CRS up to 410 (as assumption) every 14 days >>> 108 * 14 days = 1512 invitations with a cutoff = 410)

I don't know if my explanation is clear.
To sum up, PNPs increase artificially the cutoff.

 

[asusofia]

hey guys is there any chance for drop in crs as we are with very low score as i m in india.

 

[Jad77]

hey guys is there any chance for drop in crs as we are with very low score as i m in india.

I think the target CRS, in few months, would somewhere between 380 and 420 points, (more probably 420 : as many people want to immigrate to Canada)

anyone under 380 points) has no chance,
his only opportunities would be

- PNP, (very hard under 400 points), it depends on if the province want to select you or not depending on the number of PNP to offer and NOC codes,
- LMIA, (very hard because it means a validated job inside canada)
- or try to uncrease his score >>> Probably that's the best way ! and it means get a higher university degree, learn french, improve IELTS, 3 years work experience...or even marry a well educated and experienced wife (or hasband)...

good luck.

 

[china.cse]

Im sitting at 449 and missed 17th and 18th draw with just 1 point. Thought they would decline further but now again they increased to 480+, no hope that they gonna come down below 450 in future ....

 

[Lammawitch]

Impossible to tell. Too many unkown factors. (...) Nothing to do with Chris.

(...)

Exactly. The Ministerial Instructions for EE were set in November 2014, & were last modified in May. I think it highly unlikely (and possibly impossible) that they can/will be modified by an outgoing minister & government in the interim of the changeover in government.

I've said it before, but I'll reiterate it: Ministerial Instructions are established in advance & then stand. The Minister does NOT decide/issue them each time there is a draw. They are based on an algorithm for the draws determined in advance.