18th September Draw before Elections

[Banff2015]

Scores will never drop below 450, there is just new people adding to the pool all the time. My advice get a pnp nom or find an lmia.

 

[bestofluck]

I'm guessing that the rationale bestofluck is probably working with - it's pretty much the Law of Attraction from The Secret. Personally, I don't believe that pseudo-scientific stuff but one can use it by all means if it helps them cope better with the realities of events around them. There is actually no logic about 450. It could've been 452 or 447. Just that humans evolved with 10 digits so we round off to the nearest multiple of 10. The bigger logic is the number of ITAs CIC wants to issue each month.

Important to understand a few things here.

1. 2015 plans indicate estimated FSW intake to be about 47-51K, CEC to be about 21-23K and PNP to be about 46-48K. FSW and CEC are entirely through EE while major portion of PNP is still via the older paper-route (outside of EE).

2. The large chunk of intake for 2015 will be from the backlog and early 2015 EE draws. Most of the people drawn in 2015 will in fact contribute towards the 2016 intake.

3. These numbers include the overall application size including spouse/common-law partner/dependent children. It is rational to divide those numbers by 2/2.5/3 to get a realistic idea of the number of FSW/CEC candidates who get selected.

4. FSW intake also includes the numbers for FST.

5. After dividing those numbers optimistically by 2, that leaves us with a potential 2015 intake of 25k FSW+FST applicants and 11k CEC applicants.

6. That possibly indicates 18,000 FSW PAs, 7000 FST PAs and 11,000 CEC PAs (this is guesswork based on general forum information).

7. These numbers could be even smaller depending on the average applicant's family size.

8. Overall, CIC needs to have about 36,000 PA's per year to meet their targets (assuming targets aren't revised downwards in 2016 and later).

9. That leads us to roughly 1500 ITAs in each draw and 2 draws per month. Of course, this excludes PNP category under EE.

10. CIC can certainly keep the cutoff above mid 400s and still meet their target of 36K while provinces can set their internal cutoffs depending on their requirements.

That appears to be the logic. Of course, CIC can change their system/Canada can increase their immigration targets threefold next year/a nolanesque wormhole can appear in the Saturnian orbit! All of that is firmly in the realm of speculation but these here are the facts as we know them now.

As always, willing to be proved wrong and welcome all rebuttals.

agreed

 

[Asivad Anac]

Scores will never drop below 450, there is just new people adding to the pool all the time. My advice get a pnp nom or find an lmia.

You're probably wrong as well. There is nothing intrinsically important about 450.

It depends on the pool composition, number of ITAs issued and the frequency of draws. If CIC does 3 back-to-back draws starting tomorrow, the cutoff for the last of those draws is likely to be close to 400 - they are unlikely to do that though because that will just bring in too many applications into the system.

 

[bestofluck]

Scores will never drop below 450, there is just new people adding to the pool all the time. My advice get a pnp nom or find an lmia.

Advise dont cost anything its free, Anyone can give as much you want. we are just discussing it. who are u to say it wont go below 450

 

[mf4361]

The election will have huge impact on not just how much to draw in the future, but also the entire immigration structure including whether EE will still exist.

It will, however, not an instant impact. Don't hold your breathe to see if PC got voted out and get a 3000 ITA draw the next Friday.

 

[purohit]

Refer to this table ---> http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2014-11-06.asp

And do explain how CIC accommodates spouse/common-law/partner/dependent children of FSW/CEC/FST/PNP if not under those streams themselves. Because it certainly cannot be the Family class.

Why can it not be the family class. It definitely is the family class. It clearly says partner, spouse, children. This works on quota. So if the family quota is filled this year, the applications will be processed next year. It still works on first come first serve like last year. I believe CIC will come up with some way to accommodate if principal applicant of fsw/pnp/cec gets ITA but spousal quota for that year is over. And going by the current speed, 45K of family will never be filled.

If a spouse is uneducated, has 0 work experience, and PA does not claim any point of spouse but scores enough to get ITA say under FSW, how can spouse be counted under FSW, that is completely illogical. Anyone to be counted in any of the categories of Permanent Residency has to qualify for that category.

 

[bestofluck]

You're probably wrong as well. There is nothing intrinsically important about 450.

It depends on the pool composition, number of ITAs issued and the frequency of draws. If CIC does 3 back-to-back draws starting tomorrow, the cutoff for the last of those draws is likely to be close to 400 - they are unlikely to do that though because that will just bring in too many applications into the system.

i know it wont happen there is a draw this Friday. very unlikely but still like it happened on Tuesday anything is possible.It might be on 22nd too!

 

[Banff2015]

Yes I know people have to be real though there is no no need for it to drOp anymore As the months go on more and more lmia approveal the pool will to be filled and in most cases rise above 450 so below 450 I would imagine little or no hope

 

[Asivad Anac]

Why can it not be the family class. It definitely is the family class. It clearly says partner, spouse, children. This works on quota. So if the family quota is filled this year, the applications will be processed next year. It still works on first come first serve like last year. I believe CIC will come up with some way to accommodate if principal applicant of fsw/pnp/cec gets ITA but spousal quota for that year is over. And going by the current speed, 45K of family will never be filled.

If a spouse is uneducated, has 0 work experience, and PA does not claim any point of spouse but scores enough to get ITA say under FSW, how can spouse be counted under FSW, that is completely illogical. Anyone to be counted in any of the categories of Permanent Residency has to qualify for that category.

The PA qualifies AFTER including the spouse/common-law partner in their application. And they are penalized for that, in some sense, as well because 40 points are taken away from their immediate control. Family class is for reunification purposes where the PA, for one reason or the other, has either left the spouse/partner/children behind or got married AFTER getting their PR status and brings them over under that category.

It CANNOT be family class simply because that adds up to less than one fifths of the planned immigrant intake while economic programs add up to almost one thirds of the planned intake. You realize the waiting list this would create for just economic immigrants from day one if CIC decided to follow your logic, let aside the actual reunification waiting line?

 

[purohit]

The PA qualifies AFTER including the spouse/common-law partner in their application. And they are penalized for that, in some sense, as well because 40 points are taken away from their immediate control. Family class is for reunification purposes where the PA, for one reason or the other, has either left the spouse/partner/children behind or got married AFTER getting their PR status and brings them over under that category.

It CANNOT be family class simply because that adds up to less than one fifths of the planned immigrant intake while economic programs add up to almost one thirds of the planned intake. You realize the waiting list this would create for just economic immigrants from day one if CIC decided to follow your logic, let aside the actual reunification waiting line?

Can you explain who is included in Family PR category then and why does it exist if every accompanying partner/spouse is included in the same category? Going by your logic it should be only for people who already are in Canada on PR and getting married to someone outside and call them on PR right. 45 K is a huge number and 26% of economic class, which is between 1/4th and 1/3rd - humanitarian is separate and I think they get PR together.

And your first line says PA qualifies, PA gets penalized, everything is for PA, I fail to understand how suddenly a non qualifying partner is counted under fsw/cec/pnp.

Yes family category includes those left behind or those who sponsor after getting married to someone outside Canada but IMO it includes spouses and families of current applicants too, as I believe to be counted under any category you have to qualify for it.

And EE started only this year, till last year CEC time line was 13 months or more, PNP 17 months and FSW anywhere between 1 yr and 4 years, and I believe these delays could include cap on family.

This year's quote should give a better idea.

 

[Asivad Anac]

Can you explain who is included in Family PR category then and why does it exist if every accompanying partner/spouse is included in the same category? Going by your logic it should be only for people who already are in Canada on PR and getting married to someone outside and call them on PR right. 45 K is a huge number and 26% of economic class, which is between 1/4th and 1/3rd - humanitarian is separate and I think they get PR together.

And your first line says PA qualifies, PA gets penalized, everything is for PA, I fail to understand how suddenly a non qualifying partner is counted under fsw/cec/pnp.

Yes family category includes those left behind or those who sponsor after getting married to someone outside Canada but IMO it includes spouses and families of current applicants too, as I believe to be counted under any category you have to qualify for it.

And EE started only this year, till last year CEC time line was 13 months or more, PNP 17 months and FSW anywhere between 1 yr and 4 years, and I believe these delays could include cap on family.

This year's quote should give a better idea.

Cutting to the chase here.

If you're right, that would imply that Canada would invite 70k PAs this year from just FSW/FST/CEC in addition to about 50k PAs under PNP! Assuming even 30% PAs have families with just 1 child (clearly an underestimation), that would mean another 70k family members at least to follow these 120,000 PAs in the near future. No matter how you do the math, this would mean CIC would either have to keep families forcefully separated for long periods of time (while admitting ONLY the PAs) or drastically increase their immigration intake starting next year because even if we start with a zero waiting line this year, that will be a never-ending line to admit family members into Canada. And whoever has got a PPR this year so far has been able to successfully take their families along - either they are all skipping the line because CIC has a special 'family member' quota for EE or your assessment is wrong.

I'm guessing it is the latter explanation.

 

[bestofluck]

Once the Scores would start going down 450, The same people who are so obsessed to 450 would come and say that the scores will not go below 400! Believe me there is no reason to stick to 450 or else they would straight away say anyone below 450 need not apply or qualify. Why do they keep 67/100? they same they would also keep 450 ratio. So please wait for the scores to go down. Slowly but it will go down below 450.

 

[irfan_ul_haque]

I'm guessing that the rationale bestofluck is probably working with - it's pretty much the Law of Attraction from The Secret. Personally, I don't believe that pseudo-scientific stuff but one can use it by all means if it helps them cope better with the realities of events around them. There is actually no logic about 450. It could've been 452 or 447. Just that humans evolved with 10 digits so we round off to the nearest multiple of 10. The bigger logic is the number of ITAs CIC wants to issue each month.

Important to understand a few things here.

1. 2015 plans indicate estimated FSW intake to be about 47-51K, CEC to be about 21-23K and PNP to be about 46-48K. FSW and CEC are entirely through EE while major portion of PNP is still via the older paper-route (outside of EE).

2. The large chunk of intake for 2015 will be from the backlog and early 2015 EE draws. Most of the people drawn in 2015 will in fact contribute towards the 2016 intake.

3. These numbers include the overall application size including spouse/common-law partner/dependent children. It is rational to divide those numbers by 2/2.5/3 to get a realistic idea of the number of FSW/CEC candidates who get selected.

4. FSW intake also includes the numbers for FST.

5. After dividing those numbers optimistically by 2, that leaves us with a potential 2015 intake of 25k FSW+FST applicants and 11k CEC applicants.

6. That possibly indicates 18,000 FSW PAs, 7000 FST PAs and 11,000 CEC PAs (this is guesswork based on general forum information).

7. These numbers could be even smaller depending on the average applicant's family size.

8. Overall, CIC needs to have about 36,000 PA's per year to meet their targets (assuming targets aren't revised downwards in 2016 and later).

9. That leads us to roughly 1500 ITAs in each draw and 2 draws per month. Of course, this excludes PNP category under EE.

10. CIC can certainly keep the cutoff above mid 400s and still meet their target of 36K while provinces can set their internal cutoffs depending on their requirements.

That appears to be the logic. Of course, CIC can change their system/Canada can increase their immigration targets threefold next year/a nolanesque wormhole can appear in the Saturnian orbit! All of that is firmly in the realm of speculation but these here are the facts as we know them now.

As always, willing to be proved wrong and welcome all rebuttals.

+1 for the humor

 

[bestofluck]

It was only me who said the draws will happen beyond fridays and it happened on tuesday, one of the logic that proved me right. look out for more of my logic the scores will go down 450...

 

[mf4361]

It was only me who said the draws will happen beyond fridays and it happened on tuesday, one of the logic that proved me right. look out for more of my logic the scores will go down 450...

As a disclaimer, I am the one who keep saying a glass floor of 450. Just want to clarify that it's not permanent, and it may go up or down next year or so.

It just won't be a half-life decay curve that people can predict whether it will go below a certain points by a certain time.