18th September Draw before Elections

[bestofluck]

Will they make a draw and select as many people before the Elections? If there is a draw tomorrow and they take 2000 people the score will go down to 438

 

[rafzy]

Will they make a draw and select as many people before the Elections? If there is a draw tomorrow and they take 2000 people the score will go down to 438

I hope your prediction becomes true tommorow

 

[bestofluck]

I hope your prediction becomes true tommorow

i keep on spreading positive Vibrations. there are few pessimist here, i got to negotiate them

 

[iwasjeff]

i keep on spreading positive Vibrations. there are few pessimist here, i got to negotiate them

I just don't understand. First of all, you are asking forum members if score will go down ? Well, no body knows and I don't know why you are keep asking.

It may go down lower or it may stay up. If more people receive their nominations from PNP, it will likely stay higher than 438.

There is a difference between spreading positive vibes and giving people false hopes. IMO pessimists is used wrongfully because I am pretty sure people on this forum won't just post stuff to bring others down.

 

[maple325]

I appreciate your optimism and I'm also hoping for a draw this or next week!

Why do you think they'll want to invite as many people as possible before the elections? How do elections affect CIC staff?

Didn't the current government design or at least approve Express Entry? Why would they want to change anything?

If a new government is elected, what is the earliest time at which new laws could get passed that would have an impact on the current process? Assuming immigration is not a top priority or issue, I think not until mid 2016.

If a new / liberal government is elected, would they make things harder for (certain) immigrants? From my understanding they would not.

 

[francko]

The election have nothing to do with this I'm pretty sure.
But i hope we gonna have a draw tomorow and it will go down 450
Actually i want to go down at 425 where I'm lool
Lets cross fingers guys!!

 

[bestofluck]

guys there is something like logic. I am sure there is no logic to hold scores beyond 450. They can hold one or 2 weeks not more than that. It is going to go down guys dont worry very soon u will see the scores going below 450 and that will break all norms of the people who are spreading rumors that scores will not go below 450. its soon going to happen may be in September or October but it will go down below 450

 

[bestofluck]

I just don't understand. First of all, you are asking forum members if score will go down ? Well, no body knows and I don't know why you are keep asking.

It may go down lower or it may stay up. If more people receive their nominations from PNP, it will likely stay higher than 438.

There is a difference between spreading positive vibes and giving people false hopes. IMO pessimists is used wrongfully because I am pretty sure people on this forum won't just post stuff to bring others down.

What is this a pure depressed views . either it will go up or it will go down ...we all know this we are discussing logics not anything else
no statistics no assumptions just logic
One such logic the draw will be beyond Fridays have come true. now see other logic coming true

 

[mead]

guys there is something like logic. I am sure there is no logic to hold scores beyond 450. They can hold one or 2 weeks not more than that. It is going to go down guys dont worry very soon u will see the scores going below 450 and that will break all norms of the people who are spreading rumors that scores will not go below 450. its soon going to happen may be in September or October but it will go down below 450

I know we all want the scores to go below 450 and I hope they do but realistically I dont see CRS going below 450. I hope conservatives are voted out and the new government gets ride of express entry system.

 

[bestofluck]

I know we all want the scores to go below 450 and I hope they do but realistically I dont see CRS going below 450. I hope conservatives are voted out and the new government gets ride of express entry system.

Express entry cant go away it might be revised

 

[iwasjeff]

What is this a pure depressed views . either it will go up or it will go down ...we all know this we are discussing logics not anything else
no statistics no assumptions just logic
One such logic the draw will be beyond Fridays have come true. now see other logic coming true

I like how you think everyone has the same logic.

Your way or the highway bud.

 

[Asivad Anac]

I'm guessing that the rationale bestofluck is probably working with - it's pretty much the Law of Attraction from The Secret. Personally, I don't believe that pseudo-scientific stuff but one can use it by all means if it helps them cope better with the realities of events around them. There is actually no logic about 450. It could've been 452 or 447. Just that humans evolved with 10 digits so we round off to the nearest multiple of 10. The bigger logic is the number of ITAs CIC wants to issue each month.

Important to understand a few things here.

1. 2015 plans indicate estimated FSW intake to be about 47-51K, CEC to be about 21-23K and PNP to be about 46-48K. FSW and CEC are entirely through EE while major portion of PNP is still via the older paper-route (outside of EE).

2. The large chunk of intake for 2015 will be from the backlog and early 2015 EE draws. Most of the people drawn in 2015 will in fact contribute towards the 2016 intake.

3. These numbers include the overall application size including spouse/common-law partner/dependent children. It is rational to divide those numbers by 2/2.5/3 to get a realistic idea of the number of FSW/CEC candidates who get selected.

4. FSW intake also includes the numbers for FST.

5. After dividing those numbers optimistically by 2, that leaves us with a potential 2015 intake of 25k FSW+FST applicants and 11k CEC applicants.

6. That possibly indicates 18,000 FSW PAs, 7000 FST PAs and 11,000 CEC PAs (this is guesswork based on general forum information).

7. These numbers could be even smaller depending on the average applicant's family size.

8. Overall, CIC needs to have about 36,000 PA's per year to meet their targets (assuming targets aren't revised downwards in 2016 and later).

9. That leads us to roughly 1500 ITAs in each draw and 2 draws per month. Of course, this excludes PNP category under EE.

10. CIC can certainly keep the cutoff above mid 400s and still meet their target of 36K while provinces can set their internal cutoffs depending on their requirements.

That appears to be the logic. Of course, CIC can change their system/Canada can increase their immigration targets threefold next year/a nolanesque wormhole can appear in the Saturnian orbit! All of that is firmly in the realm of speculation but these here are the facts as we know them now.

As always, willing to be proved wrong and welcome all rebuttals.

 

[purohit]

I'm guessing that the rationale bestofluck is probably working with - it's pretty much the Law of Attraction from The Secret. Personally, I don't believe that pseudo-scientific stuff but one can use it by all means if it helps them cope better with the realities of events around them. There is actually no logic about 450. It could've been 452 or 447. Just that humans evolved with 10 digits so we round off to the nearest multiple of 10. The bigger logic is the number of ITAs CIC wants to issue each month.

Important to understand a few things here.

1. 2015 plans indicate estimated FSW intake to be about 47-51K, CEC to be about 21-23K and PNP to be about 46-48K. FSW and CEC are entirely through EE while major portion of PNP is still via the older paper-route (outside of EE).

2. The large chunk of intake for 2015 will be from the backlog and early 2015 EE draws. Most of the people drawn in 2015 will in fact contribute towards the 2016 intake.

3. These numbers include the overall application size including spouse/common-law partner/dependent children. It is rational to divide those numbers by 2/2.5/3 to get a realistic idea of the number of FSW/CEC candidates who get selected.

4. FSW intake also includes the numbers for FST.

5. After dividing those numbers optimistically by 2, that leaves us with a potential 2015 intake of 25k FSW+FST applicants and 11k CEC applicants.

6. That possibly indicates 18,000 FSW PAs, 7000 FST PAs and 11,000 CEC PAs (this is guesswork based on general forum information).

7. These numbers could be even smaller depending on the average applicant's family size.

8. Overall, CIC needs to have about 36,000 PA's per year to meet their targets (assuming targets aren't revised downwards in 2016 and later).

9. That leads us to roughly 1500 ITAs in each draw and 2 draws per month. Of course, this excludes PNP category under EE.

10. CIC can certainly keep the cutoff above mid 400s and still meet their target of 36K while provinces can set their internal cutoffs depending on their requirements.

That appears to be the logic. Of course, CIC can change their system/Canada can increase their immigration targets threefold next year/a nolanesque wormhole can appear in the Saturnian orbit! All of that is firmly in the realm of speculation but these here are the facts as we know them now.

As always, willing to be proved wrong and welcome all rebuttals.

I agree with most of your points here, but I don't think I agree with point 3. If you are saying that CEC intake of 23K and FSW of 50K includes spousal and family too, then I am afraid you are wrong.
Any one to be counted under CEC/FSW/PNP category has to qualify for it. Only principal applicant will fall under those categories. Any accompanying member will fall under spousal/family PR. So for example if X is the principal applicant (FSW) and Y is spouse and they both get PR under EE, the counter for FSW will reduce by 1 and for spousal PR by 1.

 

[rafzy]

I'm guessing that the rationale bestofluck is probably working with - it's pretty much the Law of Attraction from The Secret. Personally, I don't believe that pseudo-scientific stuff but one can use it by all means if it helps them cope better with the realities of events around them. There is actually no logic about 450. It could've been 452 or 447. Just that humans evolved with 10 digits so we round off to the nearest multiple of 10. The bigger logic is the number of ITAs CIC wants to issue each month.

Important to understand a few things here.

1. 2015 plans indicate estimated FSW intake to be about 47-51K, CEC to be about 21-23K and PNP to be about 46-48K. FSW and CEC are entirely through EE while major portion of PNP is still via the older paper-route (outside of EE).

2. The large chunk of intake for 2015 will be from the backlog and early 2015 EE draws. Most of the people drawn in 2015 will in fact contribute towards the 2016 intake.

3. These numbers include the overall application size including spouse/common-law partner/dependent children. It is rational to divide those numbers by 2/2.5/3 to get a realistic idea of the number of FSW/CEC candidates who get selected.

4. FSW intake also includes the numbers for FST.

5. After dividing those numbers optimistically by 2, that leaves us with a potential 2015 intake of 25k FSW+FST applicants and 11k CEC applicants.

6. That possibly indicates 18,000 FSW PAs, 7000 FST PAs and 11,000 CEC PAs (this is guesswork based on general forum information).

7. These numbers could be even smaller depending on the average applicant's family size.

8. Overall, CIC needs to have about 36,000 PA's per year to meet their targets (assuming targets aren't revised downwards in 2016 and later).

9. That leads us to roughly 1500 ITAs in each draw and 2 draws per month. Of course, this excludes PNP category under EE.

10. CIC can certainly keep the cutoff above mid 400s and still meet their target of 36K while provinces can set their internal cutoffs depending on their requirements.

That appears to be the logic. Of course, CIC can change their system/Canada can increase their immigration targets threefold next year/a nolanesque wormhole can appear in the Saturnian orbit! All of that is firmly in the realm of speculation but these here are the facts as we know them now.

As always, willing to be proved wrong and welcome all rebuttals.

+1 for such detailed explanation

 

[Asivad Anac]

I agree with most of your points here, but I don't think I agree with point 3. If you are saying that CEC intake of 23K and FSW of 50K includes spousal and family too, then I am afraid you are wrong.
Any one to be counted under CEC/FSW/PNP category has to qualify for it. Only principal applicant will fall under those categories. Any accompanying member will fall under spousal/family PR. So for example if X is the principal applicant (FSW) and Y is spouse and they both get PR under EE, the counter for FSW will reduce by 1 and for spousal PR by 1.

Refer to this table ---> http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2014-11-06.asp

And do explain how CIC accommodates spouse/common-law/partner/dependent children of FSW/CEC/FST/PNP if not under those streams themselves. Because it certainly cannot be the Family class.