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I think this is a reasonable way to look at it, no point over complicating it too much. Also there are 33 weeks left in the year, so biweekly draws would leave us with 16 more draws, which would be 3750 required ITA per draw to meet the target. People in 430 should not feel too disheartened...

I'm waiting on my ECA from WES (due next week), but it will be 441 once I get in the pool, would be rad if I get ITA on the next draw!

Your assumptions are too conservative. 220/day above 440 and an extra 30/day in 431/440 range is a total of 250/day above 430. If you look at Alexross' figures for above 430 the average is much lower than 250/day.

From May 9th to the same time on May 23rd is 14 days. Not sure how you can count 15 full days of ppl entering. edit: looking at alexross' calcs, yes he has 15 days from April 19th to May 4th, but that is actually 15 days, that is from a Thursday to a Friday (15 days later). But we're talking...

Use 14 days not 15 days (since draws typically occur every two weeks). 220 x 14 = 3080ppl. Also, using 220ppl/day for above 440 is high IMO. Look at the last few draws. I think better to use 200ppl/day for above 440 and 200ppl/day for above 430.

Appreciate your work!

Yeah it's normal. You should get 'docs accepted' and a due date very soon though.

Dang, not the best draw today... was expecting 439. I think as mentioned it must be due to IELTS/OINP effects. I will maintain my prediction of 439 for the next draw. One positive is CIC keeping to 3500ITA every second Wednesday. I much prefer that, than random draws. I think there is a good...

Haha can't help you there. Anyway I'm off to bed, looking forward to seeing a good draw when I wake up (and probably like 30 new pages to read through)! Don't wear out your F5 keys people!

It's too hot here. I hear Canada is cooler ;)

I don't envy people in other time zones waiting on Wednesday's draw. Thankfully in Australia the draw is always during sleeping hours, so no need to be nervously hitting F5 all day!

I think there is a reasonable chance we will get 438 in today's draw. From my calcs we'll take out 1000 people from 440 and below. So if there are less than 1000 people on 440 and 439 then we'll get 438. If not then very likely you'll get ITA in a fortnights time.

Not yet. For me it took three weeks from when my docs were received for them to update my status to docs accepted and give a due date. Due date was set for a further three weeks - so 6 weeks total from when they got my docs.

Have hope, you'll get it in today's draw I think :)

Guys, what happens after you submit all your documents and CIC decides they aren't happy with the info you gave them about your POF or your employment references? Do they simply request more info/clarification? Or, is there possibility you'll just get rejected?

There are a couple of other people who calculate the rate of new applicants entering the pool each draw. Look on page 1 and page 4. I used the figures from alexross on page 4 as well as the pool distribution on CIC website to do my calcs. For the most recent figures from alexross has calculated...

For a 3500 draw on May 9th my estimate is 439 based on current trends. I wouldn't be surprised to see 438 though... Not sure why everyone is being so pessimistic with their predictions, just look at the last few draws it has gone 446 > 444 > 441, and new applicants entering the pool is trending...

No guarantees, but there is a reasonable chance we will get to 429 later this year based on current trends. Fingers crossed you get NOI from Ontario in May however.

439 is my estimate (see my reasoning on page 6). I think 438 is even possible. Assuming 3500 draw on the 9th.

Maybe in some cases. I made the mistake of waiting for my IELTS, I thought the entire process with WES would take around 4 weeks, but it looks like it is going to take 6-7 weeks. And from what I can see this is the case for a lot of people. And yes all my documents are correct, so no...