No FSW or CEC draws in the next One whole year based on Immigration Levels Plan 2022-2024

[powerssdd]

When do people leave the backlog? When they are approved?

Remember, there are also two months in which those receiving ITA should apply. So whatever the processing time is, you need to add two months between that and ITA.

So they should start inviting people two months earlier.

Also, there are always some backlogs, as I understand. They don't need to reach 0 to start inviting. Just clear up some of the mess.

If I am wrong, please correct me. I am trying to understand.

Also, what is happening with people's expiring Work Permits?

You are assuming IRCC cares about us foreigners and wants to resume draws asap.
I have been seeing this optimism since the first day CEC was suspended.
Everyone was assuming it would resume soon, but here we are, into the 5th month of the suspense.
I have stopped assuming IRCC cares.

 

[SatNight]

I don't think they care for us but they have to fulfill quotas for next year. They will need to start inviting more people for the 2023 landing. If they start inviting them only in about a year, so February 2023, plus 2 months to submit documents, plus 6-8 months to finalize it, that's the end of the year already, if not beggining of 2024. So who would be invited in 2023 if they don't invite people for 2023?

 

[SatNight]

Yes, I get this math, but those who submit in this first batch in April will only be approved in October the earliest, and probably later. Because it takes 6-8 months to be approved, and by that time only 3 months are left to approve people for 2023.

In order to fill out 50 000 spots for 2023, they would have to hold massive draws in March-June to be able to fulfill the quota for 2023. Which risks more backlogs.

 

[powerssdd]

Yes, I get this math, but those who submit in this first batch in April will only be approved in October the earliest, and probably later. Because it takes 6-8 months to be approved, and by that time only 3 months are left to approve people for 2023.

In order to fill out 50 000 spots for 2023, they would have to hold massive draws in March-June to be able to fulfill the quota for 2023. Which risks more backlogs.

It take 6 - 8 months to process the apps ONLY IF there is big backlog.
If they have cleared all backlog, it will take only 1 month to process new apps.

 

[SatNight]

But this is PR application. They have to do all the background checks, etc. Was there ever a time when applications were approved in such a short time? I am doubtful.

I saw that you deleted a post where you said that they might start inviting people in November this year. This sounds more realistic than March 2023. My idea was around September.

 

[powerssdd]

But this is PR application. They have to do all the background checks, etc. Was there ever a time when applications were approved in such a short time? I am doubtful.

I saw that you deleted a post where you said that they might start inviting people in November this year. This sounds more realistic than March 2023. My idea was around September.

My post was under mod's censor. I didn't delete it.
Not sure when it will pass the censorship...

 

[powerssdd]

But this is PR application. They have to do all the background checks, etc. Was there ever a time when applications were approved in such a short time? I am doubtful.

I saw that you deleted a post where you said that they might start inviting people in November this year. This sounds more realistic than March 2023. My idea was around September.

(Let me repost the message)

Do you think the following math makes sense?

1. IRCC resumes draws at the beginning of Nov this year, and invite 6250 people in the whole month (they only need 50K in 2023, so 6250 per month)
2. By the beginning of Dec, most of the 6250 people invited the last month have submitted and start waiting.
3. IRCC keeps doing this, and by the beginning of May 2023, the 6250 people who submitted in Dec 2022 have already waited 5 months. And at the same time, IRCC have finished all existing 80K backlog and start processing the 6250 apps received in Dec 2022.
4. It takes one month to process the 6250 apps, so by the beginning of June 2023, people who submitted in Dec 2022 have recieved their PRs.
5. From Dec 2022 to June 2023, they waited for 6 months, which meet the EE standard.

If this makes sense, the beginning of Nov 2022 is the earliest date IRCC will resume EE draws.

 

[ch5am]

(Let me repost the message)

Do you think the following math makes sense?

1. IRCC resumes draws at the beginning of Nov this year, and invite 6250 people in the whole month (they only need 50K in 2023, so 6250 per month)
2. By the beginning of Dec, most of the 6250 people invited the last month have submitted and start waiting.
3. IRCC keeps doing this, and by the beginning of May 2023, the 6250 people who submitted in Dec 2022 have already waited 5 months. And at the same time, IRCC have finished all existing 80K backlog and start processing the 6250 apps received in Dec 2022.
4. It takes one month to process the 6250 apps, so by the beginning of June 2023, people who submitted in Dec 2022 have recieved their PRs.
5. From Dec 2022 to June 2023, they waited for 6 months, which meet the EE standard.

If this makes sense, the beginning of Nov 2022 is the earliest date IRCC will resume EE draws.

all this seems like just speculation. We don't know when it will resume yet.

 

[SatNight]

Yeah, it's a speculation, but this thread started as "no draws for 2.5 years" and I am glad the OP edited it, but I still think the math is off.

Mainly because there are always some backlogs. They never waited to completely clear all the applications before inviting more people. I am not sure why the assumption is that the backlog has to reach 0 to start inviting people.

There are always complex applications and people don't receive decisions in order they applied. Someone might wait 6 months, and someone else much longer. I wouldn't be surprised to still have some backlog at the end of 2023, but that doesn't mean they will not invite people, because they can't have 50 000 spots waiting empty until they finally sort out some complex application from last year in December 2023.

 

[scylla]

(Let me repost the message)

Do you think the following math makes sense?

1. IRCC resumes draws at the beginning of Nov this year, and invite 6250 people in the whole month (they only need 50K in 2023, so 6250 per month)
2. By the beginning of Dec, most of the 6250 people invited the last month have submitted and start waiting.
3. IRCC keeps doing this, and by the beginning of May 2023, the 6250 people who submitted in Dec 2022 have already waited 5 months. And at the same time, IRCC have finished all existing 80K backlog and start processing the 6250 apps received in Dec 2022.
4. It takes one month to process the 6250 apps, so by the beginning of June 2023, people who submitted in Dec 2022 have recieved their PRs.
5. From Dec 2022 to June 2023, they waited for 6 months, which meet the EE standard.

If this makes sense, the beginning of Nov 2022 is the earliest date IRCC will resume EE draws.

There is zero chance 6250 applications will be processed in one month based on what's involved in security and background checks alone. So that part of the above is extremely flawed from my perspective.

 

[powerssdd]

There is zero chance 6250 applications will be processed in one month based on what's involved in security and background checks alone. So that part of the above is extremely flawed from my perspective.

OK, then the date for resuming draws will be even later.

Dec 2022 if apps can be process in 2 months.
Jan 2023 if 3 months.

 

[SatNight]

There is zero chance 6250 applications will be processed in one month based on what's involved in security and background checks alone. So that part of the above is extremely flawed from my perspective.

I agree. There is no way PR can be approved in less than 6 months for most people. Adding 6 months (plus 1-2 months for people to submit documents after being invited) seems like a standard minimum time. So, 8 months, and I am being generous.

That's April 2023 for December 2023 landing. This is the latest they can invite people to land in 2023. There are around 50 000 spots, so unless they want to hold a mega draw, they need to start inviting people much earlier than that.

 

[scylla]

OK, then the date for resuming draws will be even later.

Dec 2022 if apps can be process in 2 months.
Jan 2023 if 3 months.

Won't happen. Use 6-8 months as the average with some applications taking less time (e.g. 3 months) and others more (e.g. 10-12).

 

[powerssdd]

Yeah, it's a speculation, but this thread started as "no draws for 2.5 years" and I am glad the OP edited it, but I still think the math is off.

Mainly because there are always some backlogs. They never waited to completely clear all the applications before inviting more people. I am not sure why the assumption is that the backlog has to reach 0 to start inviting people.

There are always complex applications and people don't receive decisions in order they applied. Someone might wait 6 months, and someone else much longer. I wouldn't be surprised to still have some backlog at the end of 2023, but that doesn't mean they will not invite people, because they can't have 50 000 spots waiting empty until they finally sort out some complex application from last year in December 2023.

If draws resume in Sep 2022, then by the beginning of May 2023 when they have cleared all 80K backlog and start processing apps invited in Sep 2022, the applicants will have already waited 7 months, plus 2 months processing time, it will be 9 months in total, which doesn't meet the 6 months standard.

 

[SatNight]

OK, then the date for resuming draws will be even later.

Dec 2022 if apps can be process in 2 months.
Jan 2023 if 3 months.

No, this makes a case for earlier start of the draw. Because they need to fit 50 000 people until December 2023.