You got a good point to ponder about but here is my 2cents on this.
First of all Canada has taken a wise decision to not have any draws which does nothing but increases the backlog and load for the ircc folks.
Now coming to the FSW backlog the backlog is somewhere around 70k+ so even though if they process 55k applications that is something great.
Also these application would be processed by July this year because based on that they will decide for the future draws post mid yr.
Based on some very rough calculations, there are
45k slots in persons left as of
Feb 1 (based on 800 per week for FSWP, and 2/3*9400 CECs processed since DEC 15), there is a backlog of 49 (FSW)+15k (CEC)=64k. Based on the processing speed and available information, it can be reasonably assumed that CEC's will all be processed first and onboarded in the coming few months. That leaves 30k slots for FSWPs. 19k of the 49k fswp backlog will get booted to 2023. I am unsure as to where we fall, IF the basis of processing is FIFO.
Stats from the IRCC website reveal, there were 34K ITAs issued from Sept 2020 to Dec 2020 before draws closed for all program specific.
Is it reasonable to assume that
majority of the remaining 49k in the FSWP backlog are individuals who received ITAS towards NOV, DEC 2020
, as their AORs most probably fall in 2021? if so then we
MIGHT be safe, based on a FIFO scheme.