What you say make sense but 495 is an over kill ,470 is too much for cec even though it is easily achievable.The current pool tells the percentiles. We do not know what kind of draws will be there. But lets give it a try. They want 410K folks in.Assuming 3 people per application that gives us 136K invites. Now if this draw restarts at say on first of April, there will be 20 draws that means 6-7000 invites in a draw. Lets take 7000.
From current pool, the cut off will be 491-500, likely 495 or so.
Second will lower it to 485 or so.
Eventually stablizing at 470 or so.