EE draws won't resume until May 2022!

[powerssdd]

Take a look at:
https://www.cicnews.com/2021/11/ircc-looking-to-tackle-express-entry-backlogs-before-resuming-fswp-and-cec-invitations-1119698.html#gs.hl79ig

IRCC has nealy 100K EE backlog as of Oct 27th, and they won't resume drawing until they cut it in half, which is 50K to go.

And their speed is 4500/month, or on average 9000/month given they have to intive 110K per year, so 50K will take them 6 months.

Oct 27th plus 6 months is May 2022, meaning EE won't resume before that.

And at that time, FSW will have resumed already, of which there are 200K in backlog; and CEC will have accumulated applications for 8 months.

The conclusion is that CRS in 2022 will be higher than 500 the whole year.

Go PNP folks!

 

[Deleted member 1050918]

IRCC notes in its memo it will need to cut the Express Entry backlog by “more than half” in order to achieve its Express Entry processing standard of six months or less.

Well, even in 2019 (no pandemic whatsoever) IRCC had already gone up to an average processing time of 9 months (50% more than what's promised - 6 months) https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/express-entry-year-end-report-2019.html

Yet the draws continued. So I doubt IRCC would wait until they've closed half the apps hoping to go back to 2017 standards. Worst case scenario they'll take Jan too to work on backlog then bring back all program draws in Feb.

 

[powerssdd]

IRCC notes in its memo it will need to cut the Express Entry backlog by “more than half” in order to achieve its Express Entry processing standard of six months or less.

Well, even in 2019 (no pandemic whatsoever) IRCC had already gone up to an average processing time of 9 months (50% more than what's promised - 6 months) https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/express-entry-year-end-report-2019.html

Yet the draws continued. So I doubt IRCC would wait until they've closed half the apps hoping to go back to 2017 standards. Worst case scenario they'll take Jan too to work on backlog then bring back all program draws in Feb.

You are right. It makes sense.

IRCC doesn't have to wait for the backlog to be cut in half.

But we have to consider that IRCC's speed is very likely way slower than 9000/month.

Let's say 6500/month. It makes the time 9 months. And we cut it in half, 4.5 months.

Then EE won't resume until March 2022.

 

[Deleted member 1050918]

You are right. It makes sense.

IRCC doesn't have to wait for the backlog to be cut in half.

Besides, what we see isn't just a backlog issue but also discrimination. IRCC allocated zero resources for anything other than CEC apps, which is why we hardly saw CECs complain all throughout 2021. Soon, IRCC will go back to its regular resource allocation so FSWs will get far more attention and possibly be far happier than they were in 2021. That'll feel like backlog is sorted out.

 

[powerssdd]

Besides, what we see isn't just a backlog issue but also discrimination. IRCC allocated zero resources for anything other than CEC apps, which is why we hardly saw CECs complain all throughout 2021. Soon, IRCC will go back to its regular resource allocation so FSWs will get far more attention and possibly be far happier than they were in 2021. That'll feel like backlog is sorted out.

There are already 150k FSW applicants in the pool, and by next year there would be more than 200K I guess.

So, I doubt FSW applicants would be happy given the intense competition and sky-rocketing CRS.

And let's not forget this is based on the assumption that FSW will resume next year.

If this winter is tough regarding covid, FSW would have to wait for longer.

 

[Deleted member 1050918]

There are already 150k FSW apps in backlog, and by next year it would be more than 200K I guess.

So, I doubt FSW applicants would be happy given the intense competition and sky-rocketing CRS.

And let's not forget this is based on the assumption that FSW will resume next year.

If this winter is tough regarding covid, FSW would have to wait for longer.

CRS will sadly sky rocket yeah; there's no way around it. Backlog obviously won't grow until they resume the draws (PNP draws are small so we can ignore). And yeah if VOs don't prepare fully for working from home with 100% efficiency then nothing can help much if they really insist on sending officers home. However I still think draws would return sometime in Jan or maybe Feb. Remember that people usually take more than a month to apply so those invited in Feb would have applied in March or April. Probably enough time for IRCC to sort out the backlog a bit.

 

[Jaycejay]

Take a look at:
https://www.cicnews.com/2021/11/ircc-looking-to-tackle-express-entry-backlogs-before-resuming-fswp-and-cec-invitations-1119698.html#gs.hl79ig

IRCC has nealy 100K EE backlog as of Oct 27th, and they won't resume drawing until they cut it in half, which is 50K to go.

And their speed is 4500/month, or on average 9000/month given they have to intive 110K per year, so 50K will take them 6 months.

Oct 27th plus 6 months is May 2022, meaning EE won't resume before that.

And at that time, FSW will have resumed already, of which there are 200K in backlog; and CEC will have accumulated applications for 8 months.

The conclusion is that CRS in 2022 will be higher than 500 the whole year.

Go PNP folks!

I don’t know how you assumed that their current processing rate is 4,500 PPRs per month. We have to remember that in September-October their resources got divided in half due to the emergence of the Afghan crisis and then elections came. Before then, they were only processing CEC applications. However, in late October they began to issue PPRs to PNP-applicants which has continued to date (even some PNP 2021 applications have gotten PPRs). As more CEC applications got cleared off the table, they had more resources to process purely FSW-O applications which noticeable started off in November 5 and has continued to date. It would be interesting to get the processing figures in November when all EE categories were getting attention. I’m 100% sure that more than 15,000 EE applications would be cleared in November. If this pace continues till February, more than 50% of the total EE backlog would have been cleared. ALL PROGRAM draw seems likely to resume in Feb/March in my opinion

 

[Jaycejay]

CRS could be 500+ in the first draw if 5000 are invited but that would quickly go down to 480+ in the next couple of drWs before hitting 470s range

 

[powerssdd]

I don’t know how you assumed that their current processing rate is 4,500 PPRs per month. We have to remember that in September-October their resources got divided in half due to the emergence of the Afghan crisis and then elections came. Before then, they were only processing CEC applications. However, in late October they began to issue PPRs to PNP-applicants which has continued to date (even some PNP 2021 applications have gotten PPRs). As more CEC applications got cleared off the table, they had more resources to process purely FSW-O applications which noticeable started off in November 5 and has continued to date. It would be interesting to get the processing figures in November when all EE categories were getting attention. I’m 100% sure that more than 15,000 EE applications would be cleared in November. If this pace continues till February, more than 50% of the total EE backlog would have been cleared. ALL PROGRAM draw seems likely to resume in Feb/March in my opinion

I highly doubt their can process 15000 EE applications per month.

As mention in a post above by @ImpatientKangaroo , even in 2019 there was already backlog, at which time the annual quota was much lower than it is now, meaning, IMO, they can only process 6500/month at most.

Reagrding CRS, I seem to be more pessimistic.

IRCC only needs 110K EE applicants per year, and they already got 100K in backlog.
I am not saying they won't draw more people, but the number will be reduced significantly.
Maybe they draw only 1500 bi-weekly, meaning 3000/month.
If EE actually resumes May 2022, they would only intive 21000 applicants in 2022 in the rest 7 months, and even with this number they can exceed their annaul goal.
This is just factor 1.

How many applications will be in the pool in May 2022?
Now there are 11795 applications who have a score higher than 480.
Give it another 5 months, I guess this number will grow to 15000.
And in the rest 7 months of 2022, this number will keep growing while IRCC inviting ppl.
So very likely, even by the end of 2022, CRS will drop just slightly lower than 480. Maybe 478 or 477.
(I should not have said 500. My bad.)

 

[upon]

I highly doubt their can process 15000 EE applications per month.

As mention in a post above by @ImpatientKangaroo , even in 2019 there was already backlog, at which time the annual quota was much lower than it is now, meaning, IMO, they can only process 6500/month at most.

Reagrding CRS, I seem to be more pessimistic.

IRCC only needs 110K EE applicants per year, and they already got 100K in backlog.
I am not saying they won't draw more people, but the number will be reduced significantly.
Maybe they draw only 1500 bi-weekly, meaning 3000/month.
If EE actually resumes May 2022, they would only intive 21000 applicants in 2022 in the rest 7 months, and even with this number they can exceed their annaul goal.
This is just factor 1.

How many applications will be in the pool in May 2022?
Now there are 11795 applications who have a score higher than 480.
Give it another 5 months, I guess this number will grow to 15000.
And in the rest 7 months of 2022, this number will keep growing while IRCC inviting ppl.
So very likely, even by the end of 2022, CRS will drop just slightly lower than 480. Maybe 478 or 477.
(I should not have said 500. My bad.)

In July 2021 they landed 19 000 EE persons. In August 18 000.
In September 17 000.

I would say 10 000 applications per month on average (because someone is single someone had dependents etc)

https://www.cic.gc.ca/opendata-donneesouvertes/data/IRCC_M_EEadmiss_0002_E.xls

 

[powerssdd]

In July 2021 they landed 19 000 EE persons. In August 18 000.
In September 17 000.

I would say 10 000 applications per month on average (because someone is single someone had dependents etc)

https://www.cic.gc.ca/opendata-donneesouvertes/data/IRCC_M_EEadmiss_0002_E.xls

OK I didn't know that.

Thank you for teaching me!

 

[powerssdd]

In July 2021 they landed 19 000 EE persons. In August 18 000.
In September 17 000.

I would say 10 000 applications per month on average (because someone is single someone had dependents etc)

https://www.cic.gc.ca/opendata-donneesouvertes/data/IRCC_M_EEadmiss_0002_E.xls

But the numbers don't add up.

In the news I posted, EE backlog reduced by only 8.5K from the beginning of Sep to the end of Oct.

But according to the excel you posted, during these two months there should be about 35K apps being processed.

Shouldn't the drop be much larger than 8.5K even if they invited 2K for CEC and 2K for PNP?

I mean, shouldn't the reduction be 35K - 2K - 2K = 31K instead of 8.5K?

 

[upon]

Spreadsheet is about number of people not number of applications.

 

[upon]

Where did you get 350K number? They don’t process 350K even in a year.

 

[powerssdd]

Where did you get 350K number? They don’t process 350K even in a year.

Sorry I meant 35K, not 350K...

But, this way, I wasn't wrong by saying IRCC can process only 6500 applications per months at most, is that correct?

So, the conclusion that EE won't resume until May 2022 still holds up.

Maybe even later than that, because according to the news, the backlog reduced only 4500 per month, meaning EE won't resume until Sep 2022.

Of course, if IRCC no longer wants to keep their "6 months processing time" promise, EE could resume at any time.