Logic says that their 2022 quota is secured considering the amount of backlog. If FSW draws resume then I think they might want those candidates to land in 2023. This means if you count back 6 months (their stated processing time) from 2022 December or November you end up in May/June. Candidates have 60 days sending in the documents after ITA -> 2022 March/ April. This is a realistic timeframe.In other words, what I am trying to say is that at the current speed, all applications submitted until now will get a decision by the end of April 2022, expect the complex ones.
So, if we will not have any new more streams announced by the minister, no CEC draws until January, then I believe the All Program draw will resume. Those ITAs sent in January, will start to get processed by the beginning of May with almost full attention of the IRCC.
The only risk I see here is that they are actually afraid inviting people from abroad because of the fear of covid country closing again. But March/April is quite far, we can soon see how the pandemic turns out. The upcoming six months will be the real dealbreaker I think. If they don't need to close the country again then it might be safe stating that they won't need to close the country at the end of 2022-beginning of 2023 so they can land people from abroad. We will see but I don't expect any movement before Q1 for pre ITA people.