FSW WORLDWIDE

[FurioGiunta]

So I have a rant and y'all the only ones who might care and understand what I have to say.

tl;dr version is, in my opinion, FSW-O normal processing won't resume until january 2022, and general FSW draws won't happen until December 2021 with 99,9% probability.

By normal processing I mean enough PPRs for this forum to notice the significant movement or stable weekly PPR updates on myimmitracker (around 10 per week or more for FSW-O like in 2020).

It's a pessimistic approach, but the most realistic and logical I could come up with. Being FSW-O stuck myself, I'd be happy to be wrong and you can screenshot this rant and post it on r/agedlikemilk if you want to if and when the opposite happens.

So my reasoning is this: so far we've only seen that IRCC only cares about their target numbers of PR landings since they purposely ignoring everyone both in social media and webform/email requests with gener. The target number for 2021 is 401 000 landed immigrants in every category and 108 500 from 401k should be us, every high skilled applicant including CEC.

Latest total numbers in google on landed permanent residents are 184 000 in July, with around 40k only in the month of July.

If we extrapolate this, we get (all numbers are landed permanent residents):
1) worst case scenario being 26k people on average per month = 314k
2) best case scenario 40k people per month every month = 384k
3) irrealistic but even better scenario with 5k monthly increments from july's 40k = 459k

Both realistic scenarios are short of their targets but best case is probably close enough to please the federal government and\or shareholders.

To achieve best case they will need to concentrate all their resources on quick guaranteed landings within the timeframe of howmuchever months left in 2021. And in IRCCs opinion, it seems, guaranteed landings are inlands, family reunification and afghan refugees.

In addition, India flight ban might also influenced their decision not to focus on outlands, since India is #1 in supplier of immigrants. As of tomorrow, India flight ban might be lifted as RSub said above that the flight IN-CA has departed and the ban wasn't renewed by the feds last week (they still might renew it on monday). Although, I don't think it'll change things because again outland PPRs demand more resources and time to land.

Alright now to my dates.

January next year for processing because new year, new targets, and there might not be enough CECs to achieve their targets in 2022 and thus processing might resume then.

Of course, there's a possibility that they'll want to clear CEC backlog (Feb 14 and 20 2021 as of now https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/application/check-status.html) in which case it's even worse and we can only hope for sept 2022, but I think (or rather hope) that at least one person in charge of this has enough common sense that low scoring CECs isn't really a good idea to implement on a regular basis.

December this year for general FSW draws because they don't want to run out of new CECs to process that potentially can land withing a month since there were cases where CECs got their PR in under a month and since their processing isn't first-come-first-served anymore. After December, possibility of landing a CEC this year is really low so there's really no difference for them in terms or target numbers, but they might still stretch it out to January for whatever reason.

There is no solution for us to implement unfortunately, because even if we all organised, chipped in for an expensive lawyer that will force IRCC to give us a definitive timeline, the lawsuit can take any time from 6 months when all this probably becomes irrelevant.

Good news is this conclusion made me at peace and less anxious about the wait and focus on other things in my life. And I hope it helps someone else too.

Happy to hear your thoughts on this and people telling me I'm wrong. Because I really want to be wrong and that after elections, for whatever reason, miracle happens and PPRs pour by the thousands for outlanders.

I think they are not going to process FSWs at full capacity until they have cleared CEC and TR-PR backlogs, no matter how long it takes. Meanwhile, there will be a slow trickle of PPRs so people don't go completely crazy. Maybe they will even send another survey to let us know how much they care about us!

 

[Lc4life]

So I have a rant and y'all the only ones who might care and understand what I have to say.

tl;dr version is, in my opinion, FSW-O normal processing won't resume until january 2022, and general FSW draws won't happen until December 2021 with 99,9% probability.

By normal processing I mean enough PPRs for this forum to notice the significant movement or stable weekly PPR updates on myimmitracker (around 10 per week or more for FSW-O like in 2020).

It's a pessimistic approach, but the most realistic and logical I could come up with. Being FSW-O stuck myself, I'd be happy to be wrong and you can screenshot this rant and post it on r/agedlikemilk if you want to if and when the opposite happens.

So my reasoning is this: so far we've only seen that IRCC only cares about their target numbers of PR landings since they purposely ignoring everyone both in social media and webform/email requests with gener. The target number for 2021 is 401 000 landed immigrants in every category and 108 500 from 401k should be us, every high skilled applicant including CEC.

Latest total numbers in google on landed permanent residents are 184 000 in July, with around 40k only in the month of July.

If we extrapolate this, we get (all numbers are landed permanent residents):
1) worst case scenario being 26k people on average per month = 314k
2) best case scenario 40k people per month every month = 384k
3) irrealistic but even better scenario with 5k monthly increments from july's 40k = 459k

Both realistic scenarios are short of their targets but best case is probably close enough to please the federal government and\or shareholders.

To achieve best case they will need to concentrate all their resources on quick guaranteed landings within the timeframe of howmuchever months left in 2021. And in IRCCs opinion, it seems, guaranteed landings are inlands, family reunification and afghan refugees.

In addition, India flight ban might also influenced their decision not to focus on outlands, since India is #1 in supplier of immigrants. As of tomorrow, India flight ban might be lifted as RSub said above that the flight IN-CA has departed and the ban wasn't renewed by the feds last week (they still might renew it on monday). Although, I don't think it'll change things because again outland PPRs demand more resources and time to land.

Alright now to my dates.

January next year for processing because new year, new targets, and there might not be enough CECs to achieve their targets in 2022 and thus processing might resume then.

Of course, there's a possibility that they'll want to clear CEC backlog (Feb 14 and 20 2021 as of now https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/application/check-status.html) in which case it's even worse and we can only hope for sept 2022, but I think (or rather hope) that at least one person in charge of this has enough common sense that low scoring CECs isn't really a good idea to implement on a regular basis.

December this year for general FSW draws because they don't want to run out of new CECs to process that potentially can land withing a month since there were cases where CECs got their PR in under a month and since their processing isn't first-come-first-served anymore. After December, possibility of landing a CEC this year is really low so there's really no difference for them in terms or target numbers, but they might still stretch it out to January for whatever reason.

There is no solution for us to implement unfortunately, because even if we all organised, chipped in for an expensive lawyer that will force IRCC to give us a definitive timeline, the lawsuit can take any time from 6 months when all this probably becomes irrelevant.

Good news is this conclusion made me at peace and less anxious about the wait and focus on other things in my life. And I hope it helps someone else too.

Happy to hear your thoughts on this and people telling me I'm wrong. Because I really want to be wrong and that after elections, for whatever reason, miracle happens and PPRs pour by the thousands for outlanders.

Bro thanks for your essay. However I think your essay is actually an optimistic scenario.

 

[Lc4life]

I think they are not going to process FSWs at full capacity until they have cleared CEC and TR-PR backlogs, no matter how long it takes. Meanwhile, there will be a slow trickle of PPRs so people don't go completely crazy. Maybe they will even send another survey to let us know how much they care about us!

Bro tr pr is supposed to be slow. It is estimated to be done by 2022. So at that time 2019 FSW app would be 3 yrs

 

[merrygoroundd]

Guys, stop putting your life on hold and wasting precious time waiting on Canada to come through!

3 words: MOVE TO GERMANY. That’s what I did 6 months ago because I gave up on Canada. Moving to Germany is super easy and not expensive. Just apply for a job-seeker visa. This allows you to move to Germany without a job offer and without being a student. It’s a special visa to simply look for a job - convenient huh!

I moved to Berlin and got a Software engineering job in one month, and I don’t speak a word of German haha. You can easily get by with just English here.

Maybe if Canada issues PPRs next year, I’ll think about it. But otherwise, I’m living the good life in Europe.

EDIT: Just to clarify, I only had 1 year of work experience when I applied for a Job-seeker visa. At the German embassy, they mentioned you do not need ANY work experience to apply for this visa. You just need to be a university graduate.

Also, note that IT/Tech jobs are mostly in English but non-IT jobs are mostly in German. So language might be an issue for you if you're not in tech.

 

[FurioGiunta]

Bro tr pr is supposed to be slow. It is estimated to be done by 2022. So at that time 2019 FSW app would be 3 yrs

Do you think Marco would care about that?

 

[imm2canadaordie]

I think they just really enjoy the work load during covid lockdowns and don’t wanna get back to pre covid working mode.
What else could explain why they don’t issue PPR for those approved cases with everything passed

I get the sentiment, but those who are in charge don't care about the workload since they don't have to do it themselves. If they deem necessary they can put the processing on 24\7, three 8-hour shifts to clear everything in the matter of two months. But it isn't economically viable. They don't issue PPRs for RFV outland applicants because they have to renew meds and security for them and it takes away resources from guaranteed landings (CECs).

I think they are not going to process FSWs at full capacity until they have cleared CEC and TR-PR backlogs, no matter how long it takes. Meanwhile, there will be a slow trickle of PPRs so people don't go completely crazy. Maybe they will even send another survey to let us know how much they care about us!

That is also a possibility. But they never will clear all backlogs because they keep piling more CEC ITAs and other applications each two weeks.

Bro thanks for your essay. However I think your essay is actually an optimistic scenario.

My pleasure. More like hopeful-best-case-outcome-somewhat-logical scenario. Optimistic is waiting for something to change next week after elections and india travel ban lift.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

Guys, stop putting your life on hold and wasting precious time waiting on Canada to come through!

3 words: MOVE TO GERMANY. That’s what I did 6 months ago because I gave up on Canada. Moving to Germany is super easy and not expensive. Just apply for a job-seeker visa. This allows you to move to Germany without a job offer and without being a student. It’s a special visa to simply look for a job - convenient huh!

I moved to Berlin and got a Software engineering job in one month, and I don’t speak a word of German haha. You can easily get by with just English here.

Maybe if Canada issues PPRs next year, I’ll think about it. But otherwise, I’m living the good life in Europe.

Don't you need 5 years of work exp to apply for a job seeker visa? And not everyone is in IT. You're mistaken if you think non-IT folks are going to have an easy time job hunting.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

So I have a rant and y'all the only ones who might care and understand what I have to say.

tl;dr version is, in my opinion, FSW-O normal processing won't resume until january 2022, and general FSW draws won't happen until December 2021 with 99,9% probability.

By normal processing I mean enough PPRs for this forum to notice the significant movement or stable weekly PPR updates on myimmitracker (around 10 per week or more for FSW-O like in 2020).

It's a pessimistic approach, but the most realistic and logical I could come up with. Being FSW-O stuck myself, I'd be happy to be wrong and you can screenshot this rant and post it on r/agedlikemilk if you want to if and when the opposite happens.

So my reasoning is this: so far we've only seen that IRCC only cares about their target numbers of PR landings since they purposely ignoring everyone both in social media and webform/email requests with gener. The target number for 2021 is 401 000 landed immigrants in every category and 108 500 from 401k should be us, every high skilled applicant including CEC.

Latest total numbers in google on landed permanent residents are 184 000 in July, with around 40k only in the month of July.

If we extrapolate this, we get (all numbers are landed permanent residents):
1) worst case scenario being 26k people on average per month = 314k
2) best case scenario 40k people per month every month = 384k
3) irrealistic but even better scenario with 5k monthly increments from july's 40k = 459k

Both realistic scenarios are short of their targets but best case is probably close enough to please the federal government and\or shareholders.

To achieve best case they will need to concentrate all their resources on quick guaranteed landings within the timeframe of howmuchever months left in 2021. And in IRCCs opinion, it seems, guaranteed landings are inlands, family reunification and afghan refugees.

In addition, India flight ban might also influenced their decision not to focus on outlands, since India is #1 in supplier of immigrants. As of tomorrow, India flight ban might be lifted as RSub said above that the flight IN-CA has departed and the ban wasn't renewed by the feds last week (they still might renew it on monday). Although, I don't think it'll change things because again outland PPRs demand more resources and time to land.

Alright now to my dates.

January next year for processing because new year, new targets, and there might not be enough CECs to achieve their targets in 2022 and thus processing might resume then.

Of course, there's a possibility that they'll want to clear CEC backlog (Feb 14 and 20 2021 as of now https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/application/check-status.html) in which case it's even worse and we can only hope for sept 2022, but I think (or rather hope) that at least one person in charge of this has enough common sense that low scoring CECs isn't really a good idea to implement on a regular basis.

December this year for general FSW draws because they don't want to run out of new CECs to process that potentially can land withing a month since there were cases where CECs got their PR in under a month and since their processing isn't first-come-first-served anymore. After December, possibility of landing a CEC this year is really low so there's really no difference for them in terms or target numbers, but they might still stretch it out to January for whatever reason.

There is no solution for us to implement unfortunately, because even if we all organised, chipped in for an expensive lawyer that will force IRCC to give us a definitive timeline, the lawsuit can take any time from 6 months when all this probably becomes irrelevant.

Good news is this conclusion made me at peace and less anxious about the wait and focus on other things in my life. And I hope it helps someone else too.

Happy to hear your thoughts on this and people telling me I'm wrong. Because I really want to be wrong and that after elections, for whatever reason, miracle happens and PPRs pour by the thousands for outlanders.

So a couple of things. What shareholders lmfao. You think IRCC is on the toronto exchange and people are buying IRCC stocks?

Anyway, the little hole in your scenario: They will, and read this part carefully, NEVER run out of CECs. Even right now both major parties have plans to increase pathways to residency for temp workers. International students are on the rise. I don't have the numbers, but i'd imagine the applications have probably shot up since they stopped all program draws. Stopping FSW only further incentivizes student visa applications because Canada is still the only country which gives you straight shot at PR if you go to university there. If you think they will resume FSW because they're running out of CECs, it will never happen. If they intend to resume FSW, it won't be because they're running out or don't want low scores.

 

[shanusharma01]

Guys, stop putting your life on hold and wasting precious time waiting on Canada to come through!

3 words: MOVE TO GERMANY. That’s what I did 6 months ago because I gave up on Canada. Moving to Germany is super easy and not expensive. Just apply for a job-seeker visa. This allows you to move to Germany without a job offer and without being a student. It’s a special visa to simply look for a job - convenient huh!

I moved to Berlin and got a Software engineering job in one month, and I don’t speak a word of German haha. You can easily get by with just English here.

Maybe if Canada issues PPRs next year, I’ll think about it. But otherwise, I’m living the good life in Europe.

i'm from a healthcare profession, it ain't that easy to get job seeker visa in a non it profession

 

[merrygoroundd]

Don't you need 5 years of work exp to apply for a job seeker visa? And not everyone is in IT. You're mistaken if you think non-IT folks are going to have an easy time job hunting.

Nope, I only had 1 year of work experience when I applied for a job-seeker visa. In fact, the guy at the German embassy told me that you do not need ANY work experience for this visa - you just need to be a university graduate.

And yeah, language will be an issue if you do not work in IT. But if you're in IT, then you're in luck. IT jobs are mostly all in English.

 

[Deleted member 1050918]

And yeah, language will be an issue if you do not work in IT.

Nope. I have many (non-software) engineer friends (mechanical, electronics etc) who found skilled engineering jobs in their fields in Germany without setting foot in Germany and without speaking a single word of German. Needless to say, software jobs don't require any German. Germany is the country that's building the next revolution in engineering and general tech and they need many skilled people right now.

Also, the most German you'll require for any legal necessity is B2, which is easily achieved in 1-2 years.

Netherlands is quite good nowadays too.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

Nope, I only had 1 year of work experience when I applied for a job-seeker visa. And yeah, language will be an issue if you do not work in IT. But if you're in IT, then you're in luck. IT jobs are mostly all in English.

wtf? Literally everywhere I read, it says minimum 5 years of experience. Are there different types of job seeker visas or something?

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

Yeah

Also, the most German you'll require for any legal necessity is B2, which is easily achieved in 1-2 years.

This part I can get behind. It's not the language that's the issue for me. It's my work experience, which is pretty specialized to the US market, to the point that I'm concerned I won't even pass eligibility even if I get an ITA.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

I don't know where you're getting your information from. But the fact that you need 5 years of experience for a Job-seeker visa in Germany is simply false and untrue. I'm living proof of that since I only had 1 year of work experience when I applied to Germany. These are the exact requirements you need: https://www.make-it-in-germany.com/en/visa-residence/types/jobseekers




In Engineering, it's mostly true you can get by with English. But if you're in healthcare, pharmaceuticals, architecture, etc., there won't be many English jobs out here for you.

Here's contradictory information haha:
https://www.germany-visa.org/job-seeker-visa/
https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/germany-visa/job-seeker-visa/

But sounds good, I'll look into this a bit more.

 

[merrygoroundd]

Here's contradictory information haha:
https://www.germany-visa.org/job-seeker-visa/
https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/germany-visa/job-seeker-visa/

But sounds good, I'll look into this a bit more.

I also stumbled upon those random websites when I was thinking about moving to Germany.

Then I actually went to the official German embassy's website and looked up the requirements there. What do you know, they do not ask for 5 years of work experience lol. You might wanna check the German consulate's website in your country, they'll have the correct requirements there.