There's no permutations dude;
Inland apps + fsw with all stages passed (ASP) + (maybe) fsw with ASP except security but security is initiated --> probably lands in Q4 2021
fsw with ASP and security is not yet started ---> probably lands in Q1 2022
FSW AORs from Q4 2021 ---> probably lands in Q4 2022 (10-12 months avg processing time)
everybody else ---> probably lands in Q1-2-3 2022 depending on how complex their app is
Any other way IRCC will fuck up big time in 2022 and miss 2022 goals as well. They are already about to miss 2021 targets so they will most likely focus on apps that can get PPR before this year is done. This is also why they're reducing CEC invites; those CECs won't get a PPR this year anyway so it's not very helpful to invite so many low-score CECs only to land them in 2022; there are thousands of high-score FSWs who can be landed in 2022 already.
There is also a huge backlog of spouse outland applications which are paper based, IRCC seems to be focusing on them also to some extent.