The industry has been severely affected by the decrease in oil prices and many lost their jobs 5+ years ago and have never been rehired. Would really suggest researching the industry especially if you have a good job now.
Should I settle in Canada? Is it worth it?
- Thread starter mails4nam
- Start date
That's really bad. I am a beginner to this whole immigration process and I will surely make a note of the above. Also, I will try and pursue MBA at the earliest. Thank you.The industry has been severely affected by the decrease in oil prices and many lost their jobs 5+ years ago and have never been rehired. Would really suggest researching the industry especially if you have a good job now.
Would just suggest you educate yourself and evaluate if immigration to Canada makes sense.That's really bad. I am a beginner to this whole immigration process and I will surely make a note of the above. Also, I will try and pursue MBA at the earliest. Thank you.
Are you suggesting that it is a bad idea ?Would just suggest you educate yourself and evaluate if immigration to Canada makes sense.
It doesn't make sense for everyone. It really depends on your situation. It is expensive to live in Canada. That is one of the reasons most families require 2 incomes. Given that your experience is in oil that is another factor. If you have a good job somewhere else in the world will you be able to get a similar one in Canada. Does this job include housing, school fees, healthcare, flights home, etc.? What amount of taxes are you paying? What type of salary can you expect in Canada. That is the type of research you need to do.Are you suggesting that it is a bad idea ?
I would not say it is impossible, but finding a job in such field is going to be extremely hard for several reasons:I wish to pursue MBA there in future. But to start with, may be I will have to work in oil refinery as I have 6 years experiance in that field. Can you throw some light on that please. Why would you that it is not a good idea?
Thank you.
1/ Oil as a limiting factor for the economy:
- When oil prices collapsed (2014/2015), it seemed as if we were going through another economic cycle in oil and gas industry ; in fact it is not completely correct. Normally (very schematically) when oil demand drops, prices drop until the offer re adjusts, then the demand increases again because commodity prices are more affordable, so prices go up because demand would ramp up to a point it would counter balance the offer, at that point investments increase in exploration and production and then the offer goes up again. However, as we go forward the fact that oil is a limiting factor for the economy will become more and more a predominant aspect; the offer cannot increase indefinitely due to the resources becoming more scarce, thus mechanically the demand will reduce after the offer hits a ceiling and the economy as a whole will collapse unless a viable alternative system of energy is found as a replacement. In fact the time horizon for an already quite significant magnitude of collapse is not so remote event (2030/2040).
If you look at total proved reserve for oil in the quoted reference, you will see that globally the proved reserves are evolving either flat or declining, except few regions.
For Canada alone, Total proved reserves for oil (Thousand million barrels):
End of 1999: 181.6
End of 2009: 175.0
End of 2018: 170.8
End of 2019: 169.7
Source: BP statistical review
This does not mean there will not be a new cycle in oil and gas, but it is not going to be a nice ride.
2/ Workforce rehiring prioritization:
- Many people got laid off in the last couple years following oil prices collapse and because of the pandemic consequences on top. You could imagine that rehiring would tend to privilege the locals (due to obvious reasons, e.g., networks, knowledge of the local industry, standards, etc.) instead of importing and re-training new workforce. Not a firm rule, but this is what to expect. At best both laid off and new candidates would be in the race, and this means tough competition.
3/ Entry barriers to access job market:
- Getting a job in the Canadian oil market is not easy; I believe some of the barriers are justified technically (compliance to standards, occupational health and safety, professional and regulatory bodies, etc.) and some others are just an overlay of difficulties in hiring and selecting candidates, to which I still do not understand the rational justifications behind in the sense that it is a requirement to keep the outputs and deliverable up to standard and at quality grade; this overlay of difficulties deprive the industry from thousands of valuable and talented workforce resources, but most importantly to my personal perspective lead to a lose-lose situation (this is luxury especially when market and geological conditions which in fact are adverse are considered, see point 5/ below).
4/ Climate problem:
Even if we were able to discover new fields and delay the depletion of the resources we are still limited by the amount of CO2 we can release to the atmosphere and the global warming is now admitted as a scientific fact, to the point that many big majors have shifted towards alternative energy sources. As an example, Total company just rebranded themselves as Total Energy with the ambition (at least on paper) to become "net zero" emitter by 2050.
5/ Energy Returned On Invested (EROI)
It is fact that oil sands have poor EROI when comparison is made between different type of oils, all tough things are slightly improving with the advent of technical progress. Just to give ball park figures; conventional oil EROI is ~ 27 to 1, shale oil EROI is ~ 25 to 1 at best and oil sands is 8 to 1 EROI at best.
Some further reading here.
So you could imagine how things become even more awkward when even competitive conventional oil is now challenged by alternative energies.
All said and done, this is your call but I would recommend to exercise strong caution if you are to foresee a career in this industry sector and region.
Don't quite agree with your oil price cycle theory. As the US became a major oil suppliers oil flooded the market pushing prices down. That is the new variable that didn't exist before. OPEC should be reducing production to help increase prices (simple supply and demand) but they don't or don't do it for long. The US will also tap their reserves or produce more oil if prices really spiked.I would not say it is impossible, but finding a job in such field is going to be extremely hard for several reasons:
1/ Oil as a limiting factor for the economy:
- When oil prices collapsed (2014/2015), it seemed as if we were going through another economic cycle in oil and gas industry ; in fact it is not completely correct. Normally (very schematically) when oil demand drops, prices drop until the offer re adjusts, then the demand increases again because commodity prices are more affordable, so prices go up because demand would ramp up to a point it would counter balance the offer, at that point investments increase in exploration and production and then the offer goes up again. However, as we go forward the fact that oil is a limiting factor for the economy will become more and more a predominant aspect; the offer cannot increase indefinitely due to the resources becoming more scarce, thus mechanically the demand will reduce after the offer hits a ceiling and the economy as a whole will collapse unless a viable alternative system of energy is found as a replacement. In fact the time horizon for an already quite significant magnitude of collapse is not so remote event (2030/2040).
If you look at total proved reserve for oil in the quoted reference, you will see that globally the proved reserves are evolving either flat or declining, except few regions.
For Canada alone, Total proved reserves for oil (Thousand million barrels):
End of 1999: 181.6
End of 2009: 175.0
End of 2018: 170.8
End of 2019: 169.7
Source: BP statistical review
This does not mean there will not be a new cycle in oil and gas, but it is not going to be a nice ride.
2/ Workforce rehiring prioritization:
- Many people got laid off in the last couple years following oil prices collapse and because of the pandemic consequences on top. You could imagine that rehiring would tend to privilege the locals (due to obvious reasons, e.g., networks, knowledge of the local industry, standards, etc.) instead of importing and re-training new workforce. Not a firm rule, but this is what to expect. At best both laid off and new candidates would be in the race, and this means tough competition.
3/ Entry barriers to access job market:
- Getting a job in the Canadian oil market is not easy; I believe some of the barriers are justified technically (compliance to standards, occupational health and safety, professional and regulatory bodies, etc.) and some others are just an overlay of difficulties in hiring and selecting candidates, to which I still do not understand the rational justifications behind in the sense that it is a requirement to keep the outputs and deliverable up to standard and at quality grade; this overlay of difficulties deprive the industry from thousands of valuable and talented workforce resources, but most importantly to my personal perspective lead to a lose-lose situation (this is luxury especially when market and geological conditions which in fact are adverse are considered, see point 5/ below).
4/ Climate problem:
Even if we were able to discover new fields and delay the depletion of the resources we are still limited by the amount of CO2 we can release to the atmosphere and the global warming is now admitted as a scientific fact, to the point that many big majors have shifted towards alternative energy sources. As an example, Total company just rebranded themselves as Total Energy with the ambition (at least on paper) to become "net zero" emitter by 2050.
5/ Energy Returned On Invested (EROI)
It is fact that oil sands have poor EROI when comparison is made between different type of oils, all tough things are slightly improving with the advent of technical progress. Just to give ball park figures; conventional oil EROI is ~ 27 to 1, shale oil EROI is ~ 25 to 1 at best and oil sands is 8 to 1 EROI at best.
Some further reading here.
So you could imagine how things become even more awkward when even competitive conventional oil is now challenged by alternative energies.
All said and done, this is your call but I would recommend to exercise strong caution if you are to foresee a career in this industry sector and region.
Many are working in oil jobs, often in KSA, and may be working in a well paid job, with no taxes, a housing allowance, more vacation and free flights, etc. It will be tough to find a better opportunity or be able to save the same amount of money if you move to Canada
Supply is supply, whether it is from conventional or non-conventional (shale) oil and that such supply is flooding the market is beside the point.Don't quite agree with your oil price cycle theory. As the US became a major oil suppliers oil flooded the market pushing prices down. That is the new variable that didn't exist before. OPEC should be reducing production to help increase prices (simple supply and demand) but they don't or don't do it for long. The US will also tap their reserves or produce more oil if prices really spiked.
Many are working in oil jobs, often in KSA, and may be working in a well paid job, with no taxes, a housing allowance, more vacation and free flights, etc. It will be tough to find a better opportunity or be able to save the same amount of money if you move to Canada
- First, business cycles in oil economy are a well known phenomenon, you can read about it here:
Cyclical behaviour of oil prices “there is no new thing under the sun” (you may want to look at slide #6 )
- Second, the specifics that apply here is that, a contrario to other commodities, oil is a limiting factor for the economy (I am repeating myself).
Some readings on the subject:
Crude Oil is becoming scarce and price is not going to warn you about it
What value has forecast (Jancovici)
So, in this instance, the old narrative that prices are dictated by supply and demand does not hold water when the resource become scarce. For someone who is working (or planning to work) in oil industry, they should be well aware that more uncertainties are lying ahead. The bust-and-boom cycles that we were used to, are probably be something of the past.
If you were more knowledgeable about the subject, you would have also known that this is not "my"cycle theory.
I must also say that I am not going to debate further on this subject due to lack of time resource.
Very aware that the boom and bust cycle is not your economic theory. We are talking about immigration in the not so distant future chances of an oil price boom leading to lots of opportunities for oil jobs in Canada anytime soon are very rare. Don’t think any economist is predicting a price boom like the past cycle partially because the US became a large oil producer. If one has a well paying oil job in KSA that will be the more reliable bet for some time to come.Supply is supply, whether it is from conventional or non-conventional (shale) oil and that such supply is flooding the market is beside the point.
- First, business cycles in oil economy are a well known phenomenon, you can read about it here:
Cyclical behaviour of oil prices “there is no new thing under the sun” (you may want to look at slide #6 )
- Second, the specifics that apply here is that, a contrario to other commodities, oil is a limiting factor for the economy (I am repeating myself).
Some readings on the subject:
Crude Oil is becoming scarce and price is not going to warn you about it
What value has forecast (Jancovici)
So, in this instance, the old narrative that prices are dictated by supply and demand does not hold water when the resource become scarce. For someone who is working (or planning to work) in oil industry, they should be well aware that more uncertainties are lying ahead. The bust-and-boom cycles that we were used to, are probably be something of the past.
If you were more knowledgeable about the subject, you would have also known that this is not "my"cycle theory.
I must also say that I am not going to debate further on this subject due to lack of time resource.
Yes, definitely.If one has a well paying oil job in KSA that will be the more reliable bet for some time to come.