Hi guys - a question for you (2 in fact)
As we know, IRCC is almost exclusively only inviting CEC candidates now, primarily as 90% of them (if I've understood correctly) are already in Canada and therefore not affected by the travel restrictions.
The talk of IRCC never again returning to FSW draws however assumes they'll be able to rely on a limitless pool of CEC candidates, already in Canada. This is surely not possible!!
Does anyone have any stats on immigrants currently working or studying in Canada without PR? To have some kind of idea how long this pool of candidates will last them!
As Mushymush very correctly points out, they will not be able to fulfill their francophone quotas only from the pool of CEC candidates, which is surely good news pour tous ceux qui ont leur niveau B2+. I've dug around for information on possible new programs targeting French speakers, but not found anything, has anyone seen anything?
I want to reiterate that this is not a likely scenario, but just something to keep in mind moving forward. I do think they will bring back FSW, and may reduce the FSW quota. But here are some numbers:
There are around 500k TFWs (temporary foreign workers in Canada). Numbers fluctuate a little but it's around there. About half of those are in agriculture or related sectors. Note that many of these are eligible for EE.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2020001/article/00028-eng.htm
Businesses prefer to keep them as TFWs, I'm not fully certain why, but I know there are calls to make it easier for them to become PRs.
https://www.immigration.ca/fr/union-calls-temporary-workers-become-permanent-residents
Here's some more relevant data. The number of international students in Canada was 300k in 2018. Let's say 250k in 2015 who graduated in 2019, and got a year of experience in 2020. These are all CEC. This number alone is more than twice as high as the annual allocation for EE. This also assumes that all these students are undergraduates. There could also be a sizeable number of masters students who would graduate in 2 years so we would also have international students from 2017 feeding into this number (and conversely some potential PhD students bring the number from 2015 down, but the majority of grad students are masters not PhD ). We all know they are trying to incentivize students to stay back after college and work by offering easier pathways to residency and reducing the requirements for PGWPs.
So to your point, it certainly looks like they have a limitless supply of CEC. What they do from here on out remains to be seen. We will know more closer to June once Canada gets closer to 1 shot for all adults and resumes discussing reopening borders.
Regarding francophone immigration, look up the francophone streams for individual provinces. I haven't explored PNP processes fully, but I believe you ahve to apply to the provinces individually. Ontario seems like the strongest option, because from my quick and likely incomplete search, many provinces need a job offer in the province to be considered for nomination but Ontario doesn't. Then there's Quebec immigration, but I'm not going to waste my time with a 1+ year nomination time and unclear application processes. Plus I'm not sure if making an ARRIMA profile counts as 'intent to reside in Quebec'. I'm not risking it.
Edit: From what I can see, only Ontario seems to have a specific french PNP stream. For a few others like Manitoba, there are certain streams that make you LMIA exempt and thus make it easier to get a job offer and PNP nomination.
Ontario:
https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontarios-express-entry-french-speaking-skilled-worker-stream
