Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[Islander216]

The problem is that we already have proof that the vaccines essentially eradicate the virus. See Israel (60% of the population has been vaccinated) - they have almost no cases. They have returned to normal.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

Canada is in the sh*tter now, for sure, but it's only a matter of months until we hit the same vaccination percentage. Vaccine deliveries have been reliable and on track.

The question of covid isn't one for opinions - unless a vaccine-beating variant comes out of nowhere, we know it's going away, and soon. The current situation in Ontario is largely irrelevant for the prospect of FSW draws in the 2nd half of the year.

Are you not aware of how behind Canada currently is with vaccinations?

This is why the perspective of people who live here is useful, some of you in this thread seem to be living in a bubble.

If that's what you want to do, that's fine. Just don't attack people who are providing an informed perspective.

Nothing about the current situation is irrelevant about future projections, because the future is extrapolated from the present. What we know is how the situation is, i.e. the rate of vaccination, etc now not what the situation could be especially with your unfounded optimistic perception.

You're saying to ignore what the situation is now and to believe in some rosy projection based on what, your own wishful thinking? I don't have time for that, most reasonable people won't either.

The notion that you think vaccine shipments have been on track and reliable means you have no idea what's going on here. All the more reason for you to stay quiet and let people who actually do know what's going provide insight.

 

[Islander216]

you're projecting. there's no attack. it is a fact that you don't know anything about government and official immigration plans, neither does anyone, except the government itself and IRCC. indeed, people have been down due to the recent events so all they've been doing is hoping good things to come soon. I don't see why you'd drop in and start popping your own pessimistic speculations and try to market them as realistic or even factual.

Yes captain obvious, no one knows what the government's plans are regarding immigration. What other gems do you have to offer? No one knows for sure what the weather will be tomorrow? Everyone here is providing an opinion.

You can have your opinion, and i can i have mine. Just don't cry into a pillow every time someone wants to elicit an informed perspective based on the situation.

The problem is exactly stated in your last sentence, you think any perspective which could be construed as dampening your personal chances of immigrating is an attack on the possibility that you will be able to. That's not my goal, 3/4 of my posts here are about encouraging and helping people to immigrate by helping to answer their queries.

Just stop being this pseudo gatekeeper who has to pout every time someone offers an opinion which you don't like or you think is pessimistic. This is not your personal thread.

 

[Islander216]

Stop being so touchy about everything you don't like, this why a lot of people don't post in this thread anymore, because delicate flowers like yourself can't bear to hear anything which will potentially disrupt your chances.

I get that it's tough, but the answer is not reciting the same old mantra of no one can say for sure, only the government knows etc etc, it adds zero value to this thread.

Put your big boy pants on.

 

[Uncle Yayo]

Stop being so touchy about everything you don't like, this why a lot of people don't post in this thread anymore, because delicate flowers like yourself can't bear to hear anything which will potentially disrupt your chances.

I get that it's tough, but the answer is not reciting the same old mantra of no one can say for sure, only the government knows etc etc, it adds zero value to this thread.

Put your big boy pants on.

Am really shocked at your 360 turn, your perceived insight is very unnecessary... coming here to tell people that based on your analysis, nothing will happen this year is also unnecessary. Even if your position is accurate. Nobody here is a child... they have in one way or the other factored the absolute worst situation. But this thread is called ray of hope for a reason. The essence is for FSWs to come together and keep the hope/dream alive... so your downer is totally uncalled for. More so, coming under the guise of speaking reality is a shitty thing to do. You can keep your skepticism and just hope for the best for the fsws.. or atleast find a way to nicely and tactically make your point without causing heart ache to some people here trying to keep the dream alive. Be nice.

 

[guelphite]

Are you not aware of how behind Canada currently is with vaccinations?

This is why the perspective of people who live here is useful, some of you in this thread seem to be living in a bubble.

If that's what you want to do, that's fine. Just don't attack people who are providing an informed perspective.

Nothing about the current situation is irrelevant about future projections, because the future is extrapolated from the present. What we know is how the situation is, i.e. the rate of vaccination, etc now not what the situation could be especially with your unfounded optimistic perception.

You're saying to ignore what the situation is now and to believe in some rosy projection based on what, your own wishful thinking? I don't have time for that, most reasonable people won't either.

The notion that you think vaccine shipments have been on track and reliable means you have no idea what's going on here. All the more reason for you to stay quiet and let people who actually do know what's going provide insight.

I also live here. My username name is "guelphite" because I live in Guelph, lol. You're absolutely full of it about vaccinations. They are going fine. We're behind the US but on track to meet the government's goal to vaccinate all adults who want it by end of June.

Stop scaremongering the people here.

 

[Islander216]

I also live here. My username name is "guelphite" because I live in Guelph, lol. You're absolutely full of it about vaccinations. They are going fine. We're behind the US but on track to meet the government's goal to vaccinate all adults who want it by end of June.

Stop scaremongering the people here.

Couldn't care less whether you live in Guelph or not, your opinions are misinformed and wishful thinking, doesn't matter whether you live here or not. A lot of people have usernames related to Canada, doesn't mean they live here or have even visited.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/04/canada-vaccine-rollout-problems/618516/
https://globalnews.ca/news/7740860/covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-canada-trudeau-rollout-speed-provinces/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/03/11/canada-coronavirus-united-states-vaccine-rollout/

Yes, i'm going to take some random person's opinion in Guelph over the overwhelming media coverage which has highlighted how behind the vaccine rollout is here.

And once again, the goal for June is not to vaccinate every adult, it's to get the first dose of the vaccine.

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2021/03/04/covid-19-vaccine-first-dose-june-canada/

So yes, please stop embarrassing yourself with your happy-go-lucky misinformation.

 

[starlordavuthu]

https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-news/cdc-do-not-travel-to-canada-even-if-you-are-vaccinated

Just gonna leave this here.

 

[starlordavuthu]

They're going to start crying again, you're being pessimistic.

I really hope things in Canada improve rather quickly, this is really hurting many of folks who just want to start their new life. TBH I never imagined government would drop ball on vaccine rollouts this bad.

 

[Mercedes2021]

nobody knows what the reality is, perhaps not even IRCC. they've been promoting FSW in the USA and have even said FSW would be back soon. so there can be no realism in this thread, only optimism or pessimism. and I can't understand why some people would bother posting pessimistic posts in a thread where the matters are about people they don't even know.

Lol there is no "soon" here. IRCC just mentioned that FSW draws will be back when the travel restrictions are lifted. Do you really think that it will be lifted soon?

 

[Mercedes2021]

Ontario just shut down (again). Vaccinated rate is extremely low. IRCC has a huge backlog of FSW applications from 2018. Please guys, why do you think that IRCC will make FSW draws in the near future? What is the motivation for them to make FSW draws when they haven't even finished the huge FSW backlog?

 

[Islander216]

I really hope things in Canada improve rather quickly, this is really hurting many of folks who just want to start their new life. TBH I never imagined government would drop ball on vaccine rollouts this bad.

The problem is there is no local capacity to produce vaccines here, the covid response was i'd say acceptable up to the point when the vaccine was discovered and we needed to get the shots to everyone.

They made the right orders and they got a great vaccine portfolio, but the problem was and is that shipments have been very slow and they've had to navigate the issues related to vaccine nationalism as well by the EU.

Now we're lagging behind with the rollout because the resources haven't been organised because of the uncertainty of when we'd receive vaccines.

A lot of people have been penalised by this, people here were saying how the U.S was so far behind us and their covid response was a shambles under Trump, but under Biden things improved drastically and now they came from behind and are now ahead of us. Of course, we can't compete with their resources but there is obviously a much smaller population as well, so the situation could have been better.

Sometimes there is a bit too much complacency here. If we knew it would be difficult to get shipments then they should have been strict about international travel like Australia is.

Now we're just stuck in no man's land and we're facing not only a lockdown but also a stay-at-home order in Ontario. The truth is people are not going to have their spring and summer ruined by this, people will be out whether the authorities like it or not. And cases will rise as a result of it if vaccination rates don't improve soon.

 

[guelphite]

@Islander216 we'll wait 3 months on this and see who is right.

My covid predictions for end of June:

• Vaccinations: at least 55% of the country has received at least one dose by end of June
• Cases: below 1000 per day (7 day trend) for the whole country

FSW draw: no idea. But covid isn't the main risk for that.

 

[Islander216]

How can you say that covid is not the main risk for that?

There was only ever 1 CEC only draw in 2015 before covid happened, the whole reason why FSW candidates are not getting invited now is because of covid.

You're not fully vaccinated until you get your second dose, so this idea that June will be this turning point is not real. You need to get to a point where you have fully vaccinated a strong majority of people especially in high population areas like the golden horseshoe, before there will be any consideration for travel restrictions to be lifted.

I think that'll be around October at the earliest. I hope it will earlier but i have my doubts. The last thing Canada needs right now is to lift travel restrictions prematurely.

 

[guelphite]

How can you say that covid is not the main risk for that?

There was only ever 1 CEC only draw in 2015 before covid happened, the whole reason why FSW candidates are not getting invited now is because of covid.

You're not fully vaccinated until you get your second dose, so this idea that June will be this turning point is not real. You need to get to a point where you have fully vaccinated a strong majority of people especially in high population areas like the golden horseshoe, before there will be any consideration for travel restrictions to be lifted.

I think that'll be around October at the earliest. I hope it will earlier but i have my doubts. The last thing Canada needs right now is to lift travel restrictions prematurely.

Political risk is higher than covid. Covid is going bro. It can't take this vaccine heat. Political risk is what did Australia's program in. There will probably be an election this year, the Liberals are looking good right now but you never know.

 

[Islander216]

Sure, but you need the actual vaccination rate to go up for things to work out, no one is denying the vaccine is effective but it's pointless if the rollout is bumbling and there are not enough people who are vaccinated. They stopped inviting FSW candidates when the situation got worse and they will only start re-inviting them once the situation improves, that hasn't happened yet.

I think the liberals aren't look good at all, but i will say that the conservatives don't seem popular either. My prediction is another minority liberal government.