Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[seadrag0n]

No, not at all lol. I'm making a larger point on how future targets may change based on which party is in power, and public opinion on immigration.

They aren't giving out ITAs for nothing, they want people to come. How long that elevated number for targets will be is the question i was trying to answer, and giving context on the fact that there is an acceptable range for immigration, it's always the upper limit which needs to be reached.

I doubt most people here are even thinking about this, just need to stick to what is happening right now. If they change policy in the future, no one can do anything about it anyway.

 

[Islander216]

Sure, but i mentioned this in relation to a comment about if there is 400k as a target that means IRCC is under pressure to give and process 400k ITAs.

In reality it doesn't work like that, even less so in the covid era.

Same thing with processing times, it's 6 months minimum now. No one should be surprised if there is application takes more time to be processed.

There isn't much pressure internally to get people through the door right now with everything that's going on. And one of the reasons i think there's been a CEC draw is a lot of FSWs are struggling to provide complete applications.

 

[ZAtoCD]

Immigration and economy are kind of in a virtuous cycle in Canada - immigration directly contributes to boosted business for a number of Canadians working in all kinds of sectors from housing to essential services. So it's not going to be about receiving immigrants AFTER the economy recovers; because the immigrants who arrive contribute in helping the economy recover.

The economy will certainly take a while to be stable (as is the case for most countries), but everything points to majority of the population getting vaccinated by the end of summer. So the current outlook seems to be much more predictable than it was in October. In October, we didn't even know if we were anywhere near a vaccine (with some scientists even speculating that we may never get a vaccine for covid). In that climate, they decided to go with a 400K mandate - that implies an inevitability to immigration no matter how long it takes to turn the economy around. Since we are much better off now than in October, I don't see any reason to think they might not still be working to achieve that target.

I'd speculate that by Q2, we will know the landing procedures for post March 18 PPRs.

I'm not particularly worried about politics either from an economic immigration (express entry in this case) perspective, because conservatives typically are in favour of that. Non economic immigration might face risks from conservative governments, but that's a different matter.

We're basically saying the same thing, just in different ways. If it was about receiving the immigrants as soon as possible though, we would be allowed to arrive right now. But we're not. That's the only point I'm making. COVID is still a very real threat - Canada's numbers are climbing rapidly in this second wave. People are being invited now to help recover the economy in the future. They're not being allowed in right now though. And Canada did just lose jobs in December, after climbing for months. Those are irrefutable facts that I'm just presenting here while people ponder about why the borders haven't been flung open right now for those with CoPR.

What I meant by politics was not other parties' views on economic immigration. If you read the previous post, I was commenting on selling opening the borders to locals. Someone who has lost their job and is scared of COVID may not want the borders to be opened to new immigrants right now. A party that does that may lose votes, and this may turn out to be an election year. Everything is probably calculated based on local politics, and keeping Canadians as happy as possible. That's very likely going to rank higher in importance, along with public health and the comfort and well-being of IRCC officers, than how desperate FSWs are to get into Canada as soon as possible.

• The borders are closed and the exemption rules are strict, and are not changing much.
• Canada just lost jobs in December.
• Canada's COVID cases are rising rapidly and the vaccine roll-out is slow at present.
• Locals may not want an influx of immigrants right now, and politicians consider that.
• New arrivals do pose an increased risk for COVID numbers.
• IRCC may be short-staffed right now, thus the lengthened processing times for apps.

I'm as keen to go to Canada as the rest of us here, but I'm just being realistic. Being patient makes things much easier on ourselves, because the reality is we don't know exactly why specific choices are being made by IRCC and the Canadian government. We just have to wait until they're happy the environment is one in which they want to let us start arriving.

 

[Islander216]

Additionally, IRCC has said that people with expired COPRs should not contact them, they will contact them in due course.

It means there's already a bottleneck when it comes to welcoming approved PRs, let alone people who have yet to have their application approved.

In any case, you're not missing much for the time being, it's tough to land there right now in terms of job opportunities, arranging accommodation and other considerations.

I just watched a video of a couple who had to go back to their home country because the expenses were piling up and they were having trouble getting a job.

 

[ZAtoCD]

Additionally, IRCC has said that people with expired COPRs should not contact them, they will contact them in due course.

It means there's already a bottleneck when it comes to welcoming approved PRs, let alone people who have yet to have their application approved.

In any case, you're not missing much for the time being, it's tough to land there right now in terms of job opportunities, arranging accommodation and other considerations.

I just watched a video of a couple who had to go back to their home country because the expenses were piling up and they were having trouble getting a job.

Agreed. It sounds like they don't have the capacity to field queries from everyone right now. They may not even have that when they're operating under normal conditions.

Oh wow! Can you post that here perhaps? Sounds like it would help give everyone some perspective.

 

[ns317]

We're basically saying the same thing, just in different ways. If it was about receiving the immigrants as soon as possible though, we would be allowed to arrive right now. But we're not. That's the only point I'm making. COVID is still a very real threat - Canada's numbers are climbing rapidly in this second wave. People are being invited now to help recover the economy in the future. They're not being allowed in right now though. And Canada did just lose jobs in December, after climbing for months. Those are irrefutable facts that I'm just presenting here while people ponder about why the borders haven't been flung open right now for those with CoPR.

What I meant by politics was not other parties' views on economic immigration. If you read the previous post, I was commenting on selling opening the borders to locals. Someone who has lost their job and is scared of COVID may not want the borders to be opened to new immigrants right now. A party that does that may lose votes, and this may turn out to be an election year. Everything is probably calculated based on local politics, and keeping Canadians as happy as possible. That's very likely going to rank higher in importance, along with public health and the comfort and well-being of IRCC officers, than how desperate FSWs are to get into Canada as soon as possible.

• The borders are closed and the exemption rules are strict, and are not changing much.
• Canada just lost jobs in December.
• Canada's COVID cases are rising rapidly and the vaccine roll-out is slow at present.
• Locals may not want an influx of immigrants right now, and politicians consider that.
• New arrivals do pose an increased risk for COVID numbers.
• IRCC may be short-staffed right now, thus the lengthened processing times for apps.

I'm as keen to go to Canada as the rest of us here, but I'm just being realistic. Being patient makes things much easier on ourselves, because the reality is we don't know exactly why specific choices are being made by IRCC and the Canadian government. We just have to wait until they're happy the environment is one in which they want to let us start arriving.

The facts that you mention are the obstacles that prevent the immigration system from working smoothly at present. And the point I'm making is that IRCC is probably working to devise a plan to land FSW outland immigrants as soon as they can, by managing such obstacles in the best way possible. Because those landed immigrants are critical to Canada's sustained economic growth.

So I'm merely pointing out the intent behind these things and asking people to not be despondent, thinking there's a huge pipeline of applicants being invited who won't get PPR for a very long time. That's quite unlikely. They called a record number of people in the last 6 months probably because they have every intention of landing them as soon as possible in 2021 (by planning around the obstacles that you mentioned). I don't see the developments since October to be critical enough to change these plans. Hence, I'm reasonably confident that things will start moving by Q2.

By the way, I feel that the biggest obstacle in processing at the moment is their outdated systems which require agents to come in to the office in order to process applications. Which would explain why VO Accra (and a few other VOs outside of Canada), with no serious covid restrictions, has been processing applications at a super fast rate.

 

[seadrag0n]

The facts that you mention are the obstacles that prevent the immigration system from working smoothly at present. And the point I'm making is that IRCC is probably working to devise a plan to land FSW outland immigrants as soon as they can, by managing such obstacles in the best way possible. Because those landed immigrants are critical to Canada's sustained economic growth.

So I'm merely pointing out the intent behind these things and asking people to not be despondent, thinking there's a huge pipeline of applicants being invited who won't get PPR for a very long time. That's quite unlikely. They called a record number of people in the last 6 months probably because they have every intention of landing them as soon as possible in 2021 (by planning around the obstacles that you mentioned). I don't see the developments since October to be critical enough to change these plans. Hence, I'm reasonably confident that things will start moving by Q2.

By the way, I feel that the biggest obstacle in processing at the moment is their outdated systems which require agents to come in to the office in order to process applications. Which would explain why VO Accra (and a few other VOs outside of Canada), with no serious covid restrictions, has been processing applications at a super fast rate.

I was also thinking the same, if they don't have the capacity to process and finalize applications, why give out such large number of invites and potentially create a huge backlog? The trend of 5k invites per draw is continuing for now.

 

[Islander216]

They have the capacity, but it's not a guarantee that you will get your application approved in a given time, right now there's a minimum processing time of 6 months.

It's also why they are probably concentrating on CECs now, because they are usually easier to process.

It's just a question of being realistic about when your application will get approved and when you'll be able to land in Canada. Not a question of if you'll be able to.

 

[ns317]

I was also thinking the same, if they don't have the capacity to process and finalize applications, why give out such large number of invites and potentially create a huge backlog? The trend of 5k invites per draw is continuing for now.

Because they know they have the ability to process these applications (naturally with a delay of a few months in avg processing time) and try to meet the 2021 target which is important for the local economy.

 

[Windsor37]

Thanks! I have requested notes twice, and they show that security has not yet begun, so the app isn't moving. It's been like that since September 2020.

How long does it take before you get the results from GCMS? I'd like to request one, but I'd like to do it when my ETA is much closer.

 

[ZAtoCD]

How long does it take before you get the results from GCMS? I'd like to request one, but I'd like to do it when my ETA is much closer.

The first time took 2.5 weeks. The second time took a month.

 

[Igethope]

I believe IRCC will get more hands on deck to process applications. I read last year that they are planning to do that this year. They won’t be giving out 10k invitations monthly if they don’t have a solid plan on ground.

 

[huyypeter]

Hey guys, I have a question. If we decline the ITA and come back to the pool. What's the day it will base on in case I have to use tie breaking rule? Will it be the day that I create the EE profile, or the day I decline ITA and come back to the pool?

 

[Timbuktu_14]

Hey guys, I have a question. If we decline the ITA and come back to the pool. What's the day it will base on in case I have to use tie breaking rule? Will it be the day that I create the EE profile, or the day I decline ITA and come back to the pool?

The day you created the profile.

 

[zupermarn]

Hey guys, I have a question. If we decline the ITA and come back to the pool. What's the day it will base on in case I have to use tie breaking rule? Will it be the day that I create the EE profile, or the day I decline ITA and come back to the pool?

are you looking to decline an ITA,

I'm actually thinking of decline my ITA but i'm scared that I might not receive a future ITA, what do you think?

Let me know how it goes?