Ray of hope - FSW - 1
- Thread starter Jatt2canada
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Very much possible. I wouldn't have applied for PR myself if there was no uncertainty in the US immigration.
How much are the chances for 468 in the upcoming draw?? I know anything can happen but people are predicting 469-470 so just curious and nervous and fed up of all the wait game.
I believe the cutoff will be 470, or even 471.
It's important to remember that the previous draw had a cutoff of 472, and then the next one was 471. The lower the score gets, the more people are within that score. So, it's reasonable to imagine that there are more candidates with 471 than 472, more candidates with 470 than 471, more candidates with 469 than 470, and so on. Just think about... we had 475, then 472 (-3 points), and now 471 (-1 point). What are the chances of the score dropping -3 again, when the 471-468 has WAYYYYYY more people than the 475-472? It's important to manage your expectations.
So, I don't see the score going below 470 for the next draw. For last draw of October? Maybe (but yet, unlikely). The real chance is probably lying at the first draw of November, IF the influx of candidates doesn't increase.
But as I always advise: don't sit still waiting for a miracle. Start to build a plan to improve your score NOW. Not tomorrow, NOW.
I was sitting at 469 for almost 8 months, and no ITA. I was only able to get mine because in January I understood (ok, I woke up and accepted the reality) that without improving it, I wouldn't make it.
There's a real chance that the influx of candidates will met the demand of ITAs before the score drops to 468 (just like the pre-pandemic scenario). You must be prepared to have a plan B to overcome this situation.
Nope , the fact is that people who enter the pool , most have 471-72 , that’s why there was only one point drop . As now the range 71-72 was cleared in the previous draw , the chances are the cutoff would be 469 even if around 3k enter the pool with 470+. All depends on how many people enter , I dnt believe in theory of lower score have more candidates . Reality is 471-73 have the most candidate , cnt predict about 460-79 bracket , I believe most are below 468 range
Honestly , chances are bright for 469s , not the 468 in the upcoming draw , again anything could happen
Based on what sort of data do you state the "fact" that the majority of people who enters the pool have 471-472?
And even if that's the case, the scenario would indicate that crossing the 471-472 barrier would be hard, because the pool is supposedly (based on your fact) being rebuilt every single day with new loads of 471-472 applicants.
I could be wrong , but U are completely wrong too , as u dnt know the data aswell . Let’s see , wait for Wednesday mate , but score won’t increase to 471 as u stated
i said I bet it will be 470, with a chance of 471.
BTW, at 471 the cutoff wouldn't increase, but actually stabilize.
475 --> 472 --> 471
Based on the cutoff, it is stabilizing. Also, pre-pandemic levels indicated 472 was the threshold for the pool with the normal influx of candidates.
Right now, WES is processing ECAs WAYYYYY faster than in 2019, and IELTS are pretty much back to normal, with a few exceptions. The tendency is that the influx will be back to the normal numbers very soon, and that's what we're seeing with the cutoff of the last 3 draws as well.
But, we'll see next Wednesday. As I mentioned, I just think people should manage their expectations.
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