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Ray of Hope - 140th Draw

ya222

Hero Member
Feb 20, 2020
217
149
No, it's not.

It averages 44 candidates/day in the range of PNPs (600+).
44 * 14 days = 616.

Pretty much every single draw from the previous months have had PNPs in the range of 500-700 candidates with more than 600 points. So, totally under the expected number.
Ielts and celpip totally closed in canada and states. Its also down in so many other countries and few states in India. WES already stated that it will take prolonged period of time. more than 40% candidates are inland. So influx will be going down in future. It will not bring score down to 460 anyhow but still people above 465 can have hope. It all depends on how pandemic affects ECA and ielts. I am not even expecting draw on March 25. If they issue regular draws of 3400 on regular biweekly, with less influx still score will drop below 470. Regular draws and suspended ielts can definitely take score down. Some people were discussing on other forums that next draw might be for inland applicants only. Even if that is the case people will be flushed out of pool eventually to take score down. All we need is regular draws without delay. All the best everybody.
 
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brokenira

Full Member
Feb 27, 2020
38
11
No, it's not.

It averages 44 candidates/day in the range of PNPs (600+).
44 * 14 days = 616.

Pretty much every single draw from the previous months have had PNPs in the range of 500-700 candidates with more than 600 points. So, totally under the expected number.
If you are looking at this draw only, then yes its consistent. Im comparing this draw with previous ones.
Feb 5: 439 profiles with 601+ pts.
Feb 14: 536 profiles with 601 + pts.
Mar 3: 568 profiles with 61+ pts.

As you can see the pattern and trend, its increasing.
 
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jrossi

Hero Member
Jan 13, 2020
506
699
If there had been a draw with 3900on 18th March, crs score would have been 467-468. I am really depressed standing with 469.
Not, it wouldn't.
Take into consideration that the numbers shown in the IRCC website are from March 13th, not March 18th.
I bet the cutoff would have been 471. 470, at least.
 
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jrossi

Hero Member
Jan 13, 2020
506
699
If you are looking at this draw only, then yes its consistent. Im comparing this draw with previous ones.
Feb 5: 439 profiles with 601+ pts.
Feb 14: 536 profiles with 601 + pts.
Mar 3: 568 profiles with 61+ pts.

As you can see the pattern and trend, its increasing.
Between draw 129 and draw 135, only 2 of them were below 700 candidates in the PNP range.
So, I wouldn't say that it's increasing. At the end of 2019 and beginning of 2020, there were way more PNP candidates than the amounts we're currently seeing.
 
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codeheals

Star Member
Oct 23, 2018
170
94
Well, unless people need to retake IELTS to increase the score, otherwise people with high score (475+) usually take their exams as early as possible. Mine was taken last year in March, and I entered the pool this year in January right after I reached my 1 year work experience.
 

ya222

Hero Member
Feb 20, 2020
217
149
CanPR is still predicting draw on 25 March. I dont think it will happen but if it will that will be extra cream on the cake :)
 

jrossi

Hero Member
Jan 13, 2020
506
699
CanPR is still predicting draw on 25 March. I dont think it will happen but if it will that will be extra cream on the cake :)
Makes sense. If we look at the record track of PNP draws in the past, just once it was not followed or preceded by a B2B. Every other time a PNP draw happened, we had either a draw in the previous week, of one after 1 week of the PNP draw.

But, of course, COVID-19 changes everything. They might have chosen the PNP as an alternative strategy to not stop EE entirely. We might even wait for 2 weeks until the next draw, and then discover it will be a FST draw. Who knows.
In general, I'm confident on a March 25th draw. Let's hope for the best!
 

DreamCanadian

Star Member
Dec 5, 2018
185
37
Since the IELTS and WES stop , No new member is entring the pool hence you can see 470+ is just 1100 people.

In next 3 draws all the 458+ will clear out
in next 2-3 month the score will drop to 430
in next 3-6 month the entire pool will be invited

Seems the situation is benefiting those who are in Pool now...

March -19th draw indicates that Canada will keep sending the invitation, I know the situation is very sad in the whole world but the people who are in pool is Luckies in the world they will get the invite without any trouble and competition.
 

samirsam

Star Member
Sep 11, 2019
164
56
Since the IELTS and WES stop , No new member is entring the pool hence you can see 470+ is just 1100 people.

In next 3 draws all the 458+ will clear out
in next 2-3 month the score will drop to 430
in next 3-6 month the entire pool will be invited

Seems the situation is benefiting those who are in Pool now...

March -19th draw indicates that Canada will keep sending the invitation, I know the situation is very sad in the whole world but the people who are in pool is Luckies in the world they will get the invite without any trouble and competition.
I do not think it will come down to those numbers since people are still getting their PNP or their one year work experience will finish
 

ya222

Hero Member
Feb 20, 2020
217
149
It also predicted it will come down to 468
yeah right canPR is not legit app for predictions

Makes sense. If we look at the record track of PNP draws in the past, just once it was not followed or preceded by a B2B. Every other time a PNP draw happened, we had either a draw in the previous week, of one after 1 week of the PNP draw.

But, of course, COVID-19 changes everything. They might have chosen the PNP as an alternative strategy to not stop EE entirely. We might even wait for 2 weeks until the next draw, and then discover it will be a FST draw. Who knows.
In general, I'm confident on a March 25th draw. Let's hope for the best!
Well in that case hope is the remedy I think. People discussing that next draw might be CEC only but that only happened once in 2015 and they never had "only CEC" draw after that. So wait and watch. Covid 19 pandemic is unprecedented and EE is totally unpredictable now. Best part is we got distribution above 451, too.
 
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