Ray of Hope - 139th Draw

[monrealcanadians]

If a system can be hacked it will be hacked.

There may be a variety of reasons to do this. It could be an angry student from a computer science field who didn't obtain enough points and then decided to put his anger into an algorithm that automatically creates dozens of new profiles every day. It is not that hard, it would be like a homework assignment for him.

Someone could easily just have fun by applying his computer skills into this.

 

[Visavie]

Making people pay, say $1, will not discourage anyone, but will dramatically decrease the number of fake profiles in the system.

You are right. But I still think that there's no problem that needs fixing. Only frustrated people inventing stories

 

[Islander216]

I don't think putting up a paywall is constructive, for some every dollar counts, and there are many costs associated with immigrating already outside of the direct costs. I think there are measures that can be taken such as simply vetting ECA and language test result references which would already weed out most if not all fake profiles. You can also require each applicant to provide a proof of identity when they submit a profile.

Anyhow, this is just spitballing on potential improvements, i have no doubt IRCC have their procedures in place to identify and remove fake profiles. Many of what we're suggesting could already be implemented.

 

[chirkut]

This conversation has occurred in previous Ray of Hopes... and the only best outcome is that IRCC charge 440 CAD to make a profile in EE. Which will be carried forward should you get an ITA or else Refunded. This way people cannot make multiple accounts and fake accounts. But its all up to IRCC

 

[ya222]

everything mentioned above is right but that is never going to happen because current scenario is in best interest of IRCC to keep score high and make more people opting for PNPs and switching to RNIP and MNPs in future. Cutoff is not coming below 470 ever unless some miracle happens. I hope I will be proved wrong in this but unfortunately I would not.

 

[Malet]

Is DELF French language test result accepted for EE?

 

[Islander216]

I don't think IRCC cares about fake profiles, they only care about reaching their targets. If if would be the case that many profiles are fake, they'd just draw more ITA. Higher scores are better for Canada because it means they are getting applicants with higher qualifications or PNP or job offers.

While i suppose this could be true, i do think that IRCC are committed to making the process as fair as possible.

When you're in the pool and you're competing, and the cut-off score is the difference between getting an ITA or not, i think IRCC will do their best to ensure that there aren't fake profiles distorting the draws.

They will want to ensure that the system is to not open to manipulation, they already provide more statistics and transparency than really any other immigration program in the world.

 

[Wanekamd]

Here we go again.
That song will never stop I guess
System COUNTS MONTHS NOT DAYS.
Real info? Did you even try to create EE profile? How are you going to show end date for your current job, can you tell me? If you started to work in March 2020 guess when the system will give you points for 1 year? In February 2021! Not in March!!!
...And before you advise to withdraw that profile or create it only after one year, please-please, read something about PNP and tie breaking rule.
You can ask IRCC to fix this if you really want.
@harbee just accept ITA once you have 1 year.

please can you help me calculate my work experience. I heard to claim 3years of work experience, it's has to be 36months. Tbh I'm very confused.
Please i started working
Jan 21 2017 - Jan 21 2018
April 19 2018 - March 19 2019
April 15 2019 - July 15 2019
September 1 2019 - present

Please when would i be able to claim 3years experience? This March or in April?
I'm currently at 450 in the pool but my score would increase when i hit 3years experience. I'm hoping to receive ITA in April.

 

[greenboymx]

It's crazy to think about how 3 years ago people with a score of 413 were receiving ITAs. The competition is fierce nowadays, I wish the best luck to all of you waiting.

 

[Canex17]

please can you help me calculate my work experience. I heard to claim 3years of work experience, it's has to be 36months. Tbh I'm very confused.
Please i started working
Jan 21 2017 - Jan 21 2018
April 19 2018 - March 19 2019
April 15 2019 - July 15 2019
September 1 2019 - present

Please when would i be able to claim 3years experience? This March or in April?
I'm currently at 450 in the pool but my score would increase when i hit 3years experience. I'm hoping to receive ITA in April.

The system may allow a discrepency because it doesn't specify exact dates, but once your application reaches an assessing officer you have to be able to display the full 3 years of qualified experience prior to the date you apply. You'd need 10 months in your current job to hit 36 from the info you have provided. So in July.

Jan 21 2017 - Jan 21 2018 = 12 months
April 19 2018 - March 19 2019 = 11 months
April 15 2019 - July 15 2019 = 3 months
September 1 2019 - July 1 2020 = 10 months

 

[ya222]

After all this and getting 468 score. I think I am not gonna make it this year. Alleged fake profiles, CEC people declining ITA, Created FST gap on purpose(last october and probably in this april or may) everything is going to screw me and including most of us. God bless us. IRCC will hopefully find better way to give fair chance to everybody.

 

[Canex17]

After all this and getting 468 score. I think I am not gonna make it this year. Alleged fake profiles, CEC people declining ITA, Created FST gap on purpose(last october and probably in this april or may) everything is going to screw me and including most of us. God bless us. IRCC will hopefully find better way to give fair chance to everybody.

I feel you. I already had an ITA but due to an uncooperative ex-employer I couldn't prove exact details for one of my positions. It ended up costing me points, time, and money. And then when I finally get my points back up to 469 I just miss the draw in December. I really thought the last draw would be it, but it went up a point instead of down one. I have til July until my birthday when another 5 points are lost. A few years over 29 can really make a huge difference to your score.

 

[Impatient Dankaroo]

The conspiracy theories are strong around here. Canada wants people to come. If they see that there are a lot of discrepancies in the numbers they will investigate and fix it. For sure there's a percentage of fake EE profiles but CIC must deem that number within acceptable limit. Imagine if CIC starts making people pay (as some suggested) to create an EE profile? This may discourage a lot of people and Canada will not reach its targeted numbers.

People should relax and stay focused. If you need points, see how you can reach the maximum. If you did get the max you can get then that's it! You did your part.

Good luck to all

They definitely should ask them to pay. Will suss out all the fake profiles I'm sure

 

[indianstudent96]

I see lots of conspiracy theories here. If it is so prevalent, IRCC would have taken measures to prevent this. Also, ECA and TRF are unique to candidates, so they would get caught immediately. I do not think one can just enter the pool without submitting them.

People should stop overthinking and simply accept the high cut-off score as the competition is higher due to obvious reasons.

Outland candidates under 30 with a CLB 10, master's degree, and three years of work experience get 481 which is more than enough to get an ITA these days.

FSW candidates from other English speaking countries can easily achieve this. They are opting to immigrate to Canada due to stringent immigration policies in other countries.

The Express Entry system is not complicated to understand at all, I will remind everyone about it here: The system invites top 'n' number of candidates and the candidates are ranked from #1 to #n during the draw. Let's say they are issuing 3500 ITAs, they invite candidates with ranks 1-3500 and the cut-off score is merely the score of the candidate with the 3500th rank. Tie-breaker time comes in only when there are multiple candidates with the cut-off score and the candidates (with the cut-off score) who created profiles earlier than the tie-breaking rule get ITAs.

Analyzing the recent draws gives us an idea of top-ranked candidates in the pool.

As of March 3, 2020, there were 568 candidates with more than 600 CRS points while 21,905 had scores in the range of 451-600. Most candidates with 600+ CRS scores have PNPs, so subtract them from the number of ITAs to get the number of candidates with scores in the range of the cutoff to 600. The last draw had a cut-off score of 471, so 3900-568 gives us 3,332 candidates with scores in the range of 471 to 600. Tie-breaking rule was Feb 24, 2020, which suggests 3,332 candidates are mostly new or improved their scores within the last two weeks.

I wish IRCC released data for 451-600 just like 401-450 in the increments of 10 points. The majority of candidates in the range 451-600 have scores below 471, we can get that number by subtracting 3,332 from 21,905 which gives us 18,573.

How can the cut-off go down? The cut-off score can go down if we have fewer candidates with 471+ scores entering the pool in the following weeks assuming that IRCC keeps the draw size consistent.

However, the last few draws do not indicate that. It is highly likely that an FST draw will take place this April. Historically, FST draws lead to a higher cut-off score. If you are a candidate with a score below 470 but can achieve 470+ by re-taking IELTS or CELPIP, now is your chance. Do not wait!

 

[Canex17]

How can the cut-off go down? The cut-off score can go down if we have fewer candidates with 471+ scores entering the pool in the following weeks assuming that IRCC keeps the draw size consistent.

There's no way to say for sure. IRCC could send more invites with the next draw, or another 4500 ITA draw, or a B2B. Or there could be a slow-down in applicants; the last few months may have just been in reaction to US and UK immigration changes. Also, the next IELTS General result date seems to be after the upcoming draw (assuming there's a draw on 18th), that could have an impact. Unless you are able to increase your CRS there's nothing left to do but be hopeful.

However, the last few draws do not indicate that. It is highly likely that an FST draw will take place this April. Historically, FST draws lead to a higher cut-off score. If you are a candidate with a score below 470 but can achieve 470+ by re-taking IELTS or CELPIP, now is your chance. Do not wait!

I think the FST will still occur in May. I don't see why April having 3 Wednesdays would impact the usual schedule of a mid-late May FST draw.