the total number of applicants with 451+ has been increasing steadily and even in the last draw, it has been increased in the same previous pace but since the gap between the 135 and 136 draw breakdown time is 11 days (not 14 days) the numbers look like that joining rate of candidates has been diminished which is not true.
The main point is the number of people with CRS score 472+ (but less than 600) that have joined the pool. In my opinion, in Draw 135, small portion of the ITA issued for people with CRS 471 since the tie break was 6 May 2019 and I believe that from 2622 ITA ( in the range of 451-600) on 22 Jan (Draw 135), 2600 of them were 472+( but less than 600). So in 5 weeks( from 19 Dec to 22 Jan) just 2600 people were added with CRS 472+(but less than 600), but in the next 2 weeks, 3061 people( and even more) with CRS score of 472+(but less than 600) joined the pool. How is this normal? This cannot be formulated. This is not something rock solid to predict the next draws based on. This shows that all predictions are absurd and the only thing that matters are the number of people joining the pool. It may be like the 5 weeks of slow joining rate of January or fast pace of February. What is going to happen next is totally based on people joining the pool. So based on these calculations, the CRS may drop to 470 or even 468 in the upcoming draws or may rise if more people are joining the pool with high CRS scores.
Just remember that in 5 weeks ending 20 of January just 2600 with a CRS score of 472+( but less than 600) joined the pool but in the next 2 weeks 3061 people (and even more) joined the pool.
any comments? disagreements?
Dude, I agree with you. That's exactly what I said earlier in the forum. Data indicates 3061 candidates with scores of 472+ but below 600 have either joined the pool or improved their scores since the last draw. I don't think there's any point in looking at 451-600 because the number of candidates with scores above the cut-off score (for example, 472) but below 600 is really what matters now. No one cares if the 451-600 pool increases to 60,000 but most candidates have scores below 470. They are simply not going to get ITAs until people ahead of them get ITAs. That's how the system works.
Many forgot how Express Entry works, it invites 'n' number of top-ranked candidates every 2 weeks (more or less) and the cut-off score shown is the score of the lowest ranking candidate. So, if CIC issues 3600 ITAs with a cut-off score of 470, 470 is the score of the person with the rank of 3600. Looking at the recent data, I would rather work hard to increase my score than hoping for people to not compete with you. Language skills matter a lot, and it can be the difference between getting an ITA and not getting one forever. The following is the list of the hypothetical scores I might have had based on my profile and CLB level:
CLB 5 - 342
CLB 6 - 354
CLB 7 - 411
CLB 8 - 435
CLB 9 - 467
CLB 10 (my current level) - 479
As I said, even the difference between CLB 9 and CLB 10 is significant. CLB 8 is considered decent, but see how hopeless I would have been if I had scored CLB 8. With a score of 435, my only options would have been PNPs.
My English used to be around CLB 5 or 6 a few years around as I grew up in a rural town in India. They barely spoke any English there and when I moved to a city, I was bullied for my poor English. I made a conscious effort to improve it and I ended up getting CLB 10 in my first attempt. So, if you are someone who is hoping for scores to come down without working on your language, you have the wrong attitude.