Ray of Hope - 134th Draw

[aonanuga002]

Yeah it's looking like that.

 

[Ajay_Scientist]

This algorithm is proposed by one of our friends in this group earlier.Can't find her to tag here.
i just populated the values for this draw and predictions come out to be 475.In the worst case if we have around 1200 people above the scores of 600 which is highly unlikely.Also, the draw size here is kept to be 3200 which is also unlikely.


Hence, the worst case for Jan 8th is 475.


After 19 Dec draw with 3,200 ITA issued and the cut off 469, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0
451-600 =15,917


Note: As cut off was 469, it means that the 15,917, profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-469 only.

looking at the number 0f people joining the pool between the last two draws

So, by 8th January, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1760(88x20days)
451-600=14,860(15,917+9300(465x20days)


Suppose that from the newly added 9300 profile all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 9300/31=300 profile/score

With 3,200 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 474-475
3,200 minus:
-1200 (601-1200)
-300 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-300 (of 480 newly added score)
-300 (of 479 newly added score)
-300 (of 478 newly added score)
-300 (of 477 newly added score)
-300 (of 476 newly added score)
-300 (of 475 newly added score)
-300 (of 474 newly added score)
-300 (of 473 newly added score)
-300 (of 472 newly added score)
-300 (of 471 newly added score)
-300 (of 470 newly added score)
-300+500(of last draw) (of 469 newly added score)

Hi Ramsha,
It is a good effort but ideally number of people above 470 wouldn't be as high as expected and not even as projected.

 

[liviero05]

Hello All,

To prove my work experience in India, would I require anything more than the offer letter(electronic) and the relieving letter(which has my start date and end date)?

Thanks

bump

 

[cybertruck]

hello everyone, so does the draw happens in the morning time on the planned day ?

 

[aonanuga002]

hello everyone, so does the draw happens in the morning time on the planned day ?

Happens around 3 to 4 pm GMT

 

[Ramsha Bukhari]

Hi Ramsha,
It is a good effort but ideally number of people above 470 wouldn't be as high as expected and not even as projected.

Hey Ajay,

I think it won't be that high for the scores of 475-600 but for early 470 (470-475) it surely is, or even higher than 300 people per score.Do you remember the second draw of November 2019, where the score just dropped by 1 point(from 472 to 471) even after a regular draw of the same size.According to pool distribution at that time, there were 2500 people greater than the score of 471 added in the pool in 14 days.if we take a normal distribution that means around 228 people/score above 471.This above calculation considering 300 people/score for the range 475-600 might be a bit unrealistic but i think that is balanced by higher density of people closer to 470's so taking a normal distribution was just for convenience.

In my opinion, since the last FST draw, people have realized the importance of 470's to stay safe so people who were in the range 465-470 have improved their scores and that was pretty easy to improve by just one or two modules in Ielts to score 6-9 extra scores.

 

[alexross]

bump

Offer letter and relieving letter are not sufficient. You need reference letter that has your roles and responsibilities matching your NOC

 

[Jasiko]

add me with 460

 

[Trinath]

Any hope for 461?

 

[preetheer]

At 433 - Any hope left?

you have to get around 465+

 

[preetheer]

600+ (Total:1) ->
475+ (Total:2) ->
470+ (Total: 4) ->
465+ (Total :8) ->
451-465 (Total: 11) ->

just add one number in group, accn. to your CRS.

 

[SirManDudeGuy]

Question regarding documents. I think I've messed up. I have been in Canada for 8 years and I obtained the police cert from my country. Do I need to get one for my time in Canada? CIC website says no but some forum posts saying yes...

 

[Rangana]

Question regarding documents. I think I've messed up. I have been in Canada for 8 years and I obtained the police cert from my country. Do I need to get one for my time in Canada? CIC website says no but some forum posts saying yes...

I have the same question. Anyone knows if we need to get police report for the stay in Canada ?

 

[hgunawa]

I have the same question. Anyone knows if we need to get police report for the stay in Canada ?

No.
They will request for it if require, after you submit your pr application.

 

[Smily Pathak]

Hello
Can anyone guide who qualifies under below mentioned class. I work as an insurance advisor and is licensed by provincial regulated body to sell home and auto insurance in ontario and is currently licensed in other provinces too, in that case do I qualify to get extra 50 points?

Do you have a certificate of qualification from a Canadian province, territory or federal body?