Ray of Hope - 133rd Draw
- Thread starter 13nitinsharma
- Start date
rajapanesar
Champion Member
- Jan 31, 2019
- 562
- 36
- Category........
- FSW
- NOC Code......
- 1241
- App. Filed.......
- 19/09/2019
Will it make a difference if you just wait it out or have some insider info today?
you are right
) but I'm stressed out a bit and in addition, if they don't draw tomorrow I'm gonna have a frustrating day; I will keep checking here and cic the whole day, while there won't be any draw. That's why I wanted to know if there is any insider news regarding the draw.
Just check during the evening eastern time. Even if a draw happens, you would get the ita after few hours (if you make the cut), so doesn't matter if you keep checking cic the whole day.you are right
No draw tomorrow I think....no reason to reduce a draw size to 3200 and conduct a draw again this week
But next possible draw date is 8 jan,...that will be almost 1 month gap...that is also not common
OINP exhausted its 2019 quota around the same time as the previous EE draw. They now have an additional 700 nominations and are handing them out like Halloween candy. Other provinces are rushing to fill their quotas before the Christmas break.
If 3200 ITAs continue, CRS may not go down too much in a B2B scenario this week or next Monday's draw. CRS may even go up and end 2019 on a high.
If 3200 ITAs continue, CRS may not go down too much in a B2B scenario this week or next Monday's draw. CRS may even go up and end 2019 on a high.
I know we are all predicting as non of us work with IRCC but I would want to bet that it would be around 467 or below... Max will be 468.... I'm totally convinced about this.
Next draw should be 3900 ITAs to reach their high target of 86000 for 2019.
They have issued 82100 so far. 86,000-82100=3900
So 3900 ITAs should be issued tomorrow and that should deepen the crs scores hopefully to 465
Next draw should be 3900 ITAs to reach their high target of 86000 for 2019.
They have issued 82100 so far. 86,000-82100=3900
So 3900 ITAs should be issued tomorrow and that should deepen the crs scores hopefully to 465
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So if there is a draw tomorrow, I think it won’t go below 465 with 3900 ITAs issued.
3200 ITAs last Wednesday, 715 were above 600 = 2485 in the range of 600-472
Since there was a cutoff date, a couple of ppl were left with 472 CRS. Let’s pretend there were 150 ppl with 472 on December 11th after the draw.
= at least 2635 people joined the pool (or improved their score) within 14 days.
= about 189 People join the pool per day with a score above 471.. crazy - right?
and 51 People with a score above 600.
If there is a B2B draw (and I’m praying for that): The first 1680 ITAs ((189+51)x7) would going to those people with a CRS of >471.
The numbers above are pretty stable. However, the rest is more guessing than calculating:
We know there were about 2635 people with a score of 472, which means on 12/11/19 there were 13282 ppl in the range of 451-471. I guess there are more people in the range of 451-460 than 461-471.
If (and again, I don’t think so) there is a equal spread of candidates per point, there are about 633 ppl per point.
Now the problem :-(
Nobody know how many ITAs will be issued...
3200 ITAs: 1520 ITAs left for ppl with a score of 471 or less, 663 people per CRS point = 468-469
3600 ITAs issued:
= 465-466
3900 ITAs issued:
=464-465
But again: I don’t know the spread, so the last part of my calculation is nothing more than a good guess
3200 ITAs last Wednesday, 715 were above 600 = 2485 in the range of 600-472
Since there was a cutoff date, a couple of ppl were left with 472 CRS. Let’s pretend there were 150 ppl with 472 on December 11th after the draw.
= at least 2635 people joined the pool (or improved their score) within 14 days.
= about 189 People join the pool per day with a score above 471.. crazy - right?
and 51 People with a score above 600.
If there is a B2B draw (and I’m praying for that): The first 1680 ITAs ((189+51)x7) would going to those people with a CRS of >471.
The numbers above are pretty stable. However, the rest is more guessing than calculating:
We know there were about 2635 people with a score of 472, which means on 12/11/19 there were 13282 ppl in the range of 451-471. I guess there are more people in the range of 451-460 than 461-471.
If (and again, I don’t think so) there is a equal spread of candidates per point, there are about 633 ppl per point.
Now the problem :-(
Nobody know how many ITAs will be issued...
3200 ITAs: 1520 ITAs left for ppl with a score of 471 or less, 663 people per CRS point = 468-469
3600 ITAs issued:
= 465-466
3900 ITAs issued:
=464-465
But again: I don’t know the spread, so the last part of my calculation is nothing more than a good guess
I don't think the score is going to come down below 467 anytime in the future and there are two reasons for this.
1. Tons of foreign student came to Canada a couple of years ago and now they are eligible for PR with score of 490+
2. work permit holder, I can see getting accumulated as well, and they are really trying hard to score above 480, local English exam center (CELPIP) full for a month at least.
These data are really scary for me. Got to know few people actively busy for the last 3 years for PR applications.
1. Tons of foreign student came to Canada a couple of years ago and now they are eligible for PR with score of 490+
2. work permit holder, I can see getting accumulated as well, and they are really trying hard to score above 480, local English exam center (CELPIP) full for a month at least.
These data are really scary for me. Got to know few people actively busy for the last 3 years for PR applications.
1 month gap (PNP and FST included) has only happened once in 2015 Apr.-May. but you never know CIC is up to.
Be more realistic and assume there won't be any draw in 2019. Who can predict when the score will go down to 475 again in 2020? With one month gap, the January score will be Everest high