Ray of Hope - 132nd Draw

[hunnysaini]

You mean Boss Lady !!!

something like that

 

[rajapanesar]

You mean Boss Lady !!!

*Boss Baby

 

[Wrath]

I hope by end of last draw(December 2019)we can see the score drop to atleast 464.

 

[Dheana90]

boss man no draw on Jan 1 in canada. it is day off

Wooopps, sorry..I forgot. I just replied to @Ramsha Bukhari request for January calculatiom without thinking of new year's holiday. I'll do the calculation again for 3rd of January then.

I am a woman, by the way..Thanks dear @Simmidas for clearing that out, haha

I don't really like when someone assume me as a man. Haha (peace out)

 

[Dheana90]

Bro at least we are seeing some positivity with your predictions....hope all ur calculations come true

Yes. Sis, I hope so too

 

[Dheana90]

*Boss Baby

This name is definitely for my son but not me,thank you very much

 

[BinduMadhavi]

Hi,

I have received an ITA on september 18th draw, with the score of 463. I completed my medical and police clearance formalities in the same month(sept). Later in the month of oct, I have declined the ITA, due to some paper work.
My concern here, how much validity, does the medical and police clearance has. Can I use the same documents if I get the ITA in the month of january or ... I am worried, as medical is expensive in canada. please suggest me on this.
and also I am going loose 5 points at the end of january. Hoping to get an ITA before that.

Thanks,
Bindu

 

[hunnysaini]

Wooopps, sorry..I forgot. I just replied to @Ramsha Bukhari request for January calculatiom without thinking of new year's holiday. I'll do the calculation again for 3rd of January then.

I am a woman, by the way..Thanks dear @Simmidas for clearing that out, haha

I don't really like when someone assume me as a man. Haha (peace out)

why not dec 30 or jan 8. instead of jan 3

 

[Simmidas]

Yes...a woman can only understand this

Wooopps, sorry..I forgot. I just replied to @Ramsha Bukhari request for January calculatiom without thinking of new year's holiday. I'll do the calculation again for 3rd of January then.

I am a woman, by the way..Thanks dear @Simmidas for clearing that out, haha

I don't really like when someone assume me as a man. Haha (peace out)

 

[Dheana90]

why not dec 30 or jan 8. instead of jan 3

Because I believe December draws will be conducted on 11th and 18 only or 4th and 18th,dear. Looking at previous year's Dec draws, IRCC never do draws between 24-1 January and I think the office will be close for Christmas and New Year's holiday from 25th Dec until 2nd of January and I guess the office will be open again from 3rd January in Canada. So,that's why I make calculation for 3rd Jan.

Below are the previous year's draw dates
2018:
Jan 10th and 24th
Dec 12th and 19th

2017:
Jan 4th, 11th and 25th
Dec 6th and 20th


2016:
Jan 6th and 13th
Dec 16th and 22nd


2015:
Dec 4th and 18th

 

[Dheana90]

Below is my calculation estimation if the draws for December take place on 4th Dec and 18th Dec and also Jan 1st:

After 13th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 472, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,177)
451-600 =12,962(15,385-2,423)
441-450= 9,135

Note: As cut off was 472, it means that the 12,962 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-4672 only.

472 score = 273
465-471=298(189+109)people/score
451-464= 784(675+109)people/score

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 23, 2019:
601-1,200 =709
451-600 =14,915
441-450 =9,166


It means in 10 days from Nov 13th to Nov 23, there where:
601-1,200 = 71 profile/day (709/10days)

451-600 = 195prof/day (14,915-12,962= 1,953/10days)

441-450 = 3prof/day (9,166-9,135= 31/10days).


So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=993(709+284(71x4days)
451-600=15,695(14,915+780(195x4d)
441-450= 9,178(9,166+12(3x4days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,733 (1,953+780)profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,733/31=88profile/score

After 27th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 471, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600-993)
451-600 =13,088(15,695-2,607)
441-450= 9,178

Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 13,088 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only.

471 score = 149 (386-237)
465-470=386(298+88)people/score
451-464= 872(784+88)people/score

So, by 4th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=497(71x7days)
451-600=14,453(13,088+1,365(195x7d)
441-450= 9,199(9,178+21(3x7days))

Suppose that from the newly added 1,365 profile from 27th Nov to 4th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,365/31=44profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 465-467
3,600 minus:
-497(601-1200)
-44 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-44 (of 480 newly added score)
-44 (of 479 newly added score)
-44 (of 478 newly added score)
-44 (of 477 newly added score)
-44 (of 476 newly added score)
-44 (of 475 newly added score)
-44 (of 474 newly added score)
-44 (of 473 newly added score)
-44 (of 472 newly added score)
-149(of 471 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 471 newly added score)
-386(of 470 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 470 newly added score)
-386 of 469 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 469 newly added score)
-386 of 468 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 468 newly added score)
-386 of 467 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 467 newly added score)
-386 of 466 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 466 newly added score)
-320 (of 386 of 465 left after 27th Nov draw)



After 4th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 465, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -497)
451-600 =11,350(14,453-3,103)
441-450= 9,199

Note: As cut off was 465, it means that the 11,350 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-465 only.

465score = 110 (386-320+44)
451-464= 916(872+44)people/score


So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=994(71x14days)
451-600=14,080(11,350+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,241(9,199+42(3x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 4th Dec to 18th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,730/31=88profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 464-466
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-88 (of 467 newly added score)
-88 (of 466 newly added score)
-110 (of 465 left after 4th Dec draw)
-88 (of 465 newly added score)
-916 of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)
-84 (of 88 of 464 newly added score)


After 18th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -994)
451-600 =11,474(14,080-2,606)
441-450= 9,241

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 11,474 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only.

464score = 4 (88-84)
451-463= 1,004(916+88)people/score


So, by 3rd January, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,136(71x16days)
451-600=14,594(11,474+3,120(195x16d)
441-450= 9,289(9,241+48(3x16days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 18th Dec to 1st Jan, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,760/31=88profile/score

With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 463-465
3,600 minus:
-1,136(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-88 (of 467 newly added score)
-88 (of 466 newly added score)
-88 (of 465 newly added score)
-4 (of 464 left after 18th Dec draw)
-88 of 464 newly added score)
-876 (of 1004 of 463 left after 18th Dec draw).

Ok. I will do the calculation for first draw in January, assuming that it will happen on the 8th, @hunnysaini

So, by 8th January, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,491(71x21days)
451-600=15,569(11,474+4,095(195x21d)
441-450= 9,304(9,241+63(3x21days))

Suppose that from the newly added 4,095 profile from 18th Dec to 8th Jan, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 4,095/31=132profile/score

With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 466-468
3,600 minus:
-1491(601-1200)
-132 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-132 (of 480 newly added score)
-132 (of 479 newly added score)
-132 (of 478 newly added score)
-132 (of 477 newly added score)
-132 (of 476 newly added score)
-132 (of 475 newly added score)
-132 (of 474 newly added score)
-132 (of 473 newly added score)
-132 (of 472 newly added score)
-132 (of 471 newly added score)
-132 (of 470 newly added score)
-132 (of 469 newly added score)
-132 (of 468 newly added score)
-132 (of 467 newly added score)
-129 (of 132 of 466 newly added score).

 

[Dheana90]

Yes...a woman can only understand this

Haha. That's true.

 

[Nixnic19]

Haha. That's true.

Dear Santa,

Please grant our Christmas wish on Dec. 4 with 469 cut-off.

PS.
May CRS also go lower for the coming draws.

Love,
469 people

 

[hunnysaini]

Ok. I will do the calculation for first draw in January, assuming that it will happen on the 8th, @hunnysaini

So, by 8th January, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,491(71x21days)
451-600=15,569(11,474+4,095(195x21d)
441-450= 9,304(9,241+63(3x21days))

Suppose that from the newly added 4,095 profile from 18th Dec to 8th Jan, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 4,095/31=132profile/score

With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 466-468
3,600 minus:
-1491(601-1200)
-132 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-132 (of 480 newly added score)
-132 (of 479 newly added score)
-132 (of 478 newly added score)
-132 (of 477 newly added score)
-132 (of 476 newly added score)
-132 (of 475 newly added score)
-132 (of 474 newly added score)
-132 (of 473 newly added score)
-132 (of 472 newly added score)
-132 (of 471 newly added score)
-132 (of 470 newly added score)
-132 (of 469 newly added score)
-132 (of 468 newly added score)
-132 (of 467 newly added score)
-129 (of 132 of 466 newly added score).

thanks

 

[canadadream2828]

Because I believe December draws will be conducted on 11th and 18 only or 4th and 18th,dear. Looking at previous year's Dec draws, IRCC never do draws between 24-1 January and I think the office will be close for Christmas and New Year's holiday from 25th Dec until 2nd of January and I guess the office will be open again from 3rd January in Canada. So,that's why I make calculation for 3rd Jan.

Below are the previous year's draw dates
2018:
Jan 10th and 24th
Dec 12th and 19th

2017:
Jan 4th, 11th and 25th
Dec 6th and 20th


2016:
Jan 6th and 13th
Dec 16th and 22nd


2015:
Dec 4th and 18th

Thank you Sir!