Ray of Hope - 132nd Draw

[a16107]

Sitting at 458 till March 2020.. I don't see any hope with this on going pattern of crs draws... First quarter of 2020... What are the realistic predictions anyway?

Nice guy: First quarter or second quater you may get it?
Realistic: anything under 460 is very tough

 

[jskywalker]

I am in a great dilemma after witnessing today's draw. I am currently at 465 but CLB 10 in writing and speaking can push my score to 471. Shall I go for that by booking a computer delivered test or wait for my turn at 465? Kindly help.

I was thinking the same when my score was high 450 in July. I spent another two months studying and improved my IELTS so that my score was above 470. I have my PR card on the table now.

If you can improve your score in anyway, you need to do it ASAP.

 

[WarHammer]

Well you guys should be Prepared for a great surprise from cic on 18th of december..... Don't ask me how or where i got the information from.... If you guys can come up with some pessimistic estimates about crs score jumping to 480 next year....then don't bother to ask me how i got my estimates....please guys for those of us feeling empty... I can assure it is going to end in praise..i can assure you guys....


Results: Rounds of invitations
Ministerial Instructions respecting invitations to apply for permanent residence under the Express Entry system – December 18th, 2019

No program specified

See full text of Ministerial Instruction

Number of invitations issued: 7,200Footnote*

Rank required to be invited to apply: 7200th or above

Date and time of round: December 18th, 2019 at 12:44:41 UTC

CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 462

Tie-breaking rule: October 25, 2019 at 6:29:10 U

It is precisely because of nonsensical posts like these, the people’s sense of disappointment is high. They read these and convince themselves it’s true and when reality hits they feel cheated.

Anything can happen but here is the supposed fact based on current trends - folks in 450s should look for ways to improve as score is highly unlikely to come that low again. If it does hey that’s awesome but I can’t buy a lottery ticket and stop going to work thinking I will win it right. It’s like that now for scores below 460.

 

[jskywalker]

Well you guys should be Prepared for a great surprise from cic on 18th of december..... Don't ask me how or where i got the information from.... If you guys can come up with some pessimistic estimates about crs score jumping to 480 next year....then don't bother to ask me how i got my estimates....please guys for those of us feeling empty... I can assure it is going to end in praise..i can assure you guys....


Results: Rounds of invitations
Ministerial Instructions respecting invitations to apply for permanent residence under the Express Entry system – December 18th, 2019

No program specified

See full text of Ministerial Instruction

Number of invitations issued: 7,200Footnote*

Rank required to be invited to apply: 7200th or above

Date and time of round: December 18th, 2019 at 12:44:41 UTC

CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 462

Tie-breaking rule: October 25, 2019 at 6:29:10 U

In September you were saying the score will drop below 450, and asked to mark your words... https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-126th-draw.652492/page-35#post-8164777

Yourself is struggling in improving your CRS score too. I think you got those numbers out of your rear ends.

 

[NivedhithaCibi]

Hi All, need help . IF I apply just individually without spouse my score would be 470 and with Spouse it is 464 . What would you advise? My IELTS Expires in Mar 24 2020 so should I apply as single? Assuming I do apply as single, how would my spouse get the PR? Please share your inputs if possible

 

[jskywalker]

Hi All, need help . IF I apply just individually without spouse my score would be 470 and with Spouse it is 464 . What would you advise? My IELTS Expires in Mar 24 2020 so should I apply as single? Assuming I do apply as single, how would my spouse get the PR? Please share your inputs if possible

After you get PR and landed you can sponsor your spouse, which can take one year or more.

 

[NivedhithaCibi]

After you get PR and landed you can sponsor your spouse, which can take one year or more.

Thanks Jay, can my spouse work during that time with an open work permit?

 

[keyur sharma]

I am happy with the CRS

 

[guggu96]

so now CIC only needs one draw to achieve their 2019 target for 81400 and CIC is shy of 3500 ITAs i am guessing there's only one draw left i dont think they will go beyond their target one draw means they've achieved their target right now CIC issued 78900 ITAs so the next draw will be smaller(3500) or same size as this one (3600)

i hope you are wrong

 

[badri.sri139]

Nov

Dear @Tousif_27 ,
Below is my calculation estimation for 11th Dec draw:

After 13th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 472, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,177)
451-600 =12,962(15,385-2,423)
441-450= 9,135

Note: As cut off was 472, it means that the 12,962 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-4672 only.

472 score = 273
465-471=298(189+109)people/score
451-464= 784(675+109)people/score

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 23, 2019:
601-1,200 =709
451-600 =14,915
441-450 =9,166


It means in 10 days from Nov 13th to Nov 23, there where:
601-1,200 = 71 profile/day (709/10days)

451-600 = 195prof/day (14,915-12,962= 1,953/10days)

441-450 = 3prof/day (9,166-9,135= 31/10days).


So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=993(709+284(71x4days)
451-600=15,695(14,915+780(195x4d)
441-450= 9,178(9,166+12(3x4days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,733 (1,953+780)profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,733/31=88profile/score

After 27th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 471, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600-993)
451-600 =13,088(15,695-2,607)
441-450= 9,178

Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 13,088 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only.

471 score = 149 (386-237)
465-470=386(298+88)people/score
451-464= 872(784+88)people/score

So, by 11th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=994(71x14days)
451-600=15,818(13,088+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,220(9,178+12(3x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 27th Nov to 11th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,730/31=88profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 467-469
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-149(of 471 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-386(of 470 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-386 of 469 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-386 of 468 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-128 (of 386 of 467 left after 27th Nov draw).

I feel that in your calculations you cannot assume anymore that the newly added cases will be equally distributed to 451-480. I think there are more people getting added to between 470-480 than to 450-460.

 

[guggu96]

can you guys please stop predicting from now onwards humble request 99% its wrong just hope for the best dont predict

 

[jskywalker]

Thanks Jay, can my spouse work during that time with an open work permit?

If she has an open work permit, then sure she can. If you are asking if she can apply for an open work permit based on the fact that you are PR, I do not know the answer, sorry.

 

[CG7]

Hello guys, first post here. I am at 469 and I just got a nomination from Alberta. I am yet to accept it. I have to start all over again in Alberta if I accept it. Been in Ontario 5 years. My dilemma is whether to wait for the scores to go down or just accept the nomination. I feel it is close but I don't want to lose my plan b (nomination) and btw I have maxed out my ielts. I want to hear your opinions.

 

[a16107]

can you guys please stop predicting from now onwards humble request 99% its wrong just hope for the best dont predict

The prediction started from 1st draw to 132nd draw

it is an element for this thread lol

 

[WarHammer]

Hello guys, first post here. I am at 469 and I just got a nomination from Alberta. I am yet to accept it. I have to start all over again in Alberta if I accept it. Been in Ontario 5 years. My dilemma is whether to wait for the scores to go down or just accept the nomination. I feel it is close but I don't want to lose my plan b (nomination) and btw I have maxed out my ielts. I want to hear your opinions.

You should definitely wait as you are at 469. Just a matter of time before you get ITA. Would be madness to move to Alberta.