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Ray of Hope - 131st Draw

B

blueshark

Star Member
Nov 30, 2017
81
25
Atri said:
Saw lot of data and went through analysis of others. A close look at 2019 data says that mean is reverting to 457 point in 5-6 iterations. Hence prediction is (if the gap is not more than two weeks) 469 for next draw and scores will fall till 457-458 continuously and then stabilise or rise slowly. Those with 460+ will get by jan end/feb beginning for sure.
Click to expand...
So I still have a chance at 458? Because I've lost all hopes seeing the current trend.
 
I

Ilyushin76

Hero Member
Mar 24, 2019
485
190
Atri said:
Saw lot of data and went through analysis of others. A close look at 2019 data says that mean is reverting to 457 point in 5-6 iterations. Hence prediction is (if the gap is not more than two weeks) 469 for next draw and scores will fall till 457-458 continuously and then stabilise or rise slowly. Those with 460+ will get by jan end/feb beginning for sure.
Click to expand...
Encouraging but too late for some people who will be losing points starting January 2020.
 
Vvek

Vvek

Star Member
Jul 16, 2018
107
39
Atri said:
Saw lot of data and went through analysis of others. A close look at 2019 data says that mean is reverting to 457 point in 5-6 iterations. Hence prediction is (if the gap is not more than two weeks) 469 for next draw and scores will fall till 457-458 continuously and then stabilise or rise slowly. Those with 460+ will get by jan end/feb beginning for sure.
Click to expand...
Possible Bad news:
I don't want to be a pessimist, but we have to admit that there are lots of people with CRS 471 in the pool. Even in the Internal CRS tracker, you can see more people with CRS 471. If one is below 30 yrs, got 2 or more degrees(I believe most of the masters' holders from India are getting two or more), 3 yrs of experience, single and CLB 9 (I have seen lots of people getting CLB 10 in L,R,S and CLB 9 in W, Either people are not getting CLB 9 or are getting CLB 10 in three modules with CLB 9 in 1), gives a CRS of 471. So I believe the CRS might just go down by a point to 471 in the next draw. In favourable case, it could go down to 470 as well. However, I don't think it will go below 470. For this, we just have to look at past trends.
In every draws after FST(with 4 weeks gap), the CRS has increased by 10 to 15 points, but after that, the score came down again at the same level as it was before FST draws. i.e decrease in 8 to 10 points and after that a decrease in 3 and 2 points were observed. However, the last draw score decreased by a mere 3 points (where it should have decreased by 10 minimum 5 points - looking at the past trends). So we cannot expect the draw after that to decrease by 3 points as well. (I will be really happy to be declared wrong by tomorrow's draw).

We also need to take into consideration the number of PNP applicant's. There were a large number of NOI's issued on June/July/August and these are being converted into nomination in November and December, and hence higher number of candidates with CRS 600 and above. So if this continues, meaning, if there are around 1200 to 1500 candidates with CRS 600 and above, that means only 2100 ITA's will be issued to people with CRS 460 to 600. It is quite apparent that around 4000 to 4200 candidates with CRS 450 to 600 are entering into the pool and only 2100 are being issued ITA. This means only back to back draws can clear out the pool.

Possible Good News:
There is a high probability that 3 draws are expected with a back to back on Dec 18, if this is the case then back to back has the capacity to decrease the CRS by at least 5 points. So we can expect the scores to go down to 462-463 by the end of the year.
Also, we cannot deny the possibility of having 4 more draws (27th Nov, Dec 4, Dec 11 and Dec 18), if this is the case the CRS could go down to 455. (let's pray for this to happen)

Takeaway:
Guys, we need to be prepared to deal with the possible bad news and be hopeful for the good news. I know the feeling when we have high hopes but things don't turn the way we expected it to be. So, guys, let's keep the realistic hope and do whatever it takes to make to Canada. What I found the most effective way is to not think about it at all. These things are outside our control so we cannot do anything about the number of candidates, draw size etc. What we can do is, just give yourself a break from CRS and stuff, focus on the stuff you can do to increase your CRS. Don't let Express entry be a reason for anxiety.
 
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L

leblord

Star Member
May 23, 2019
129
46
Dont be neither optimist or pessimist , wait only for tomorow , if the score drop to 469-468 means that it will continu to drop 3-4 point every draw and we will be fine , one guy whas saying that there are a lot of chance that the score will drop a lot this draw because of false profil created ... at the end we are at one day to see
 
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nri7777

nri7777

Hero Member
Nov 2, 2019
286
86
Category........
FSW
Visa Office......
Ottawa
NOC Code......
0121
Doc's Request.
NA
Nomination.....
NA
AOR Received.
23-12-2019
deepika.setia09 said:
What are the formalities are you guys working on... As being in pool there is nothing else can be done.
Click to expand...
other formalities like collecting and managing docs like reference letters, pof etc.
 
J

journey21

Hero Member
Dec 25, 2014
315
123
Vvek said:
Possible Bad news:
I don't want to be a pessimist, but we have to admit that there are lots of people with CRS 471 in the pool. Even in the Internal CRS tracker, you can see more people with CRS 471. If one is below 30 yrs, got 2 or more degrees(I believe most of the masters' holders from India are getting two or more), 3 yrs of experience, single and CLB 9 (I have seen lots of people getting CLB 10 in L,R,S and CLB 9 in W, Either people are not getting CLB 9 or are getting CLB 10 in three modules with CLB 9 in 1), gives a CRS of 471. So I believe the CRS might just go down by a point to 471 in the next draw. In favourable case, it could go down to 470 as well. However, I don't think it will go below 470. For this, we just have to look at past trends.
In every draws after FST(with 4 weeks gap), the CRS has increased by 10 to 15 points, but after that, the score came down again at the same level as it was before FST draws. i.e decrease in 8 to 10 points and after that a decrease in 3 and 2 points were observed. However, the last draw score decreased by a mere 3 points (where it should have decreased by 10 minimum 5 points - looking at the past trends). So we cannot expect the draw after that to decrease by 3 points as well. (I will be really happy to be declared wrong by tomorrow's draw).

We also need to take into consideration the number of PNP applicant's. There were a large number of NOI's issued on June/July/August and these are being converted into nomination in November and December, and hence higher number of candidates with CRS 600 and above. So if this continues, meaning, if there are around 1200 to 1500 candidates with CRS 600 and above, that means only 2100 ITA's will be issued to people with CRS 460 to 600. It is quite apparent that around 4000 to 4200 candidates with CRS 450 to 600 are entering into the pool and only 2100 are being issued ITA. This means only back to back draws can clear out the pool.

Possible Good News:
There is a high probability that 3 draws are expected with a back to back on Dec 18, if this is the case then back to back has the capacity to decrease the CRS by at least 5 points. So we can expect the scores to go down to 462-463 by the end of the year.
Also, we cannot deny the possibility of having 4 more draws (27th Nov, Dec 4, Dec 11 and Dec 18), if this is the case the CRS could go down to 455. (let's pray for this to happen)

Takeaway:
Guys, we need to be prepared to deal with the possible bad news and be hopeful for the good news. I know the feeling when we have high hopes but things don't turn the way we expected it to be. So, guys, let's keep the realistic hope and do whatever it takes to make to Canada. What I found the most effective way is to not think about it at all. These things are outside our control so we cannot do anything about the number of candidates, draw size etc. What we can do is, just give yourself a break from CRS and stuff, focus on the stuff you can do to increase your CRS. Don't let Express entry be a reason for anxiety.
Click to expand...
Well said. Don't let EE/Canada consume your whole being.
 
JaaKaaa

JaaKaaa

Star Member
Feb 20, 2019
79
15
Hi guys.
I have a question and would appreciate any help regarding the following situation.

I am not sure which NOC to choose, 4031 or 4032 (teacher). Main duties are almost identical. There is "junior high school teacher" under 4032 and "teacher of mathematics" under 4031, so I don't know which to choose. My question is: What will they (administrators?) do if they decide that I have chosen the wrong NOC, even though 4031 and 4032 are almost identical? Will they accept my application (post ITA, hopefully) and just change the NOC, or reject it, ban me or something similar?

I am really frustrated and scared to make a wrong decision. Please, any word of advice would be very helpful.
 
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