Ray of Hope - 131st Draw

[thiteixeira]

Hi folks. I have 471 points but my birthday is going to be Nov 27 (NEXT DRAW’s day). I have already all documents done to submit after get the ITA. If I receive the ITA and submit my eAPR in the same day I will be free to lose 5 points? I have checked everywhere about when is the effective day to lose age points, however I have not found this information.

 

[harish010188]

Hi folks. I have 471 points but my birthday is going to be Nov 27 (NEXT DRAW’s day). I have already all documents done to submit after get the ITA. If I receive the ITA and submit my eAPR in the same day I will be free to lose 5 points? I have checked everywhere about when is the effective day to lose age points, however I have not found this information.

Hi - Once you get your ITA, your account gets freeze and your points will not come down.

 

[indpnv]

Hi - Once you get your ITA, your account gets freeze and your points will not come down.

Not really, except for age:

An applicant’s CRS score is automatically recorded in GCMS at the time when

• their ITA is issued; and
• their e-APR is submitted.

At the time of the e-APR, processing officers should compare both CRS scores to determine which of the following scenarios should be applied:

• If the applicant’s CRS score at the time of the e-APR is equal to or higher than the lowest-ranked score in the round of invitations, the application will not be refused under section A11.2, as long as the applicant’s supporting documentation corroborates their claims and they continue to meet the MEC for Express Entry, including the requirements of the program to which they were invited to apply.
• If the applicant’s CRS score at the time of the e-APR is lower than the lowest-ranked score in the round of invitations, the application should be refused under section A11.2 for not having maintained the qualifications that would justify the ITA.

Please read: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/operational-bulletins-manuals/permanent-residence/express-entry/assessing-electronic-application-on-section-a11-2.html

 

[badri.sri139]

Hi folks. I have 471 points but my birthday is going to be Nov 27 (NEXT DRAW’s day). I have already all documents done to submit after get the ITA. If I receive the ITA and submit my eAPR in the same day I will be free to lose 5 points? I have checked everywhere about when is the effective day to lose age points, however I have not found this information.

You will loose points on 26th November night. It happened to my wife, she lost 5 points at around 10-11 PM on 29 October and her birthday is on 30th October.

 

[geevik]

When is the next chance for next FST draw?

 

[smash1984]

Hi folks. I have 471 points but my birthday is going to be Nov 27 (NEXT DRAW’s day). I have already all documents done to submit after get the ITA. If I receive the ITA and submit my eAPR in the same day I will be free to lose 5 points? I have checked everywhere about when is the effective day to lose age points, however I have not found this information.

yes, i think you will lose points once they recalculate your score (which they do after you submit your application). I remember mine went down from 456 to 451 since i got my ITA around 4th Oct and AOR was 7th Nov and my birthday fell in between.

 

[armer29]

Hey friends, I did some calculations and wanted to know your opinion on the same. As per my calculation, the next cut-off will be 469. I myself is way below than this, but it is what below maths says. Please share your thoughts.

1. 25th Oct: Number of crs 451+ applications in pool = 12,999 (451-600) + 1,255 (above 600) = 14,254

2. 30th Oct: Draw conducted. Score: 475. ITA issued 3900.

3. 08th Nov: Number of crs 451+ applications in pool = 14,180 (451-600) + 757 (above 600) = 14,937

4. Applications entering between 30th and 8th Nov (14 days) = 14,937 - 14,254 + 3900 (ITA issued on 30th) = 4,583

5. Applications entering per day = 4583/14 = 327.35 ~= 328 (round up)

Calculating data for 13th Nov draw

6. 13th Nov: Draw conducted. Score: 472. ITA issued 3600

7. Number of applications entered between 8th & 13th Nov = 328 * 5 = 1640

8. Estimated number of applications on 13th Nov = 14,937 (as of 8th Nov) + 1,640 = 16,577

9. Estimated number of applications after draw = 16,577 – 3600 (ITA issued) = 12,977. These are <= crs 472 as backlog above 473 is cleared.

10. There are 22 crs levels between 451 to 472.

11. Average number of applications at each level (451-472) = 12,977/22 = 564.21 =~ 565. I know it will be different, so considering the AVERAGE

The tentative date for next draw is 27th Nov

12. Estimated number of applications entering the pool between 13th & 27th Nov = 4,583 (refer point 4)

13. Based on 13th Nov draw, ratio of application >= 473 = 16,577 (point 8)/ 3600 (ITA issued) = 4.60.

14. Considering above ratio, number of new entering pool with crs >= 473 = 4,583/4.60 = 995.28 =~ 996. Remaining 3,587 (4,583 – 996) goes below 473.

15. Average number applications added at each level below 473 = 3587/22 (levels between 451-473) = 163

16. Average number applications added at each level below 473 = 565 (point 11) + 163 (point 15) = 728

17. Consider 3600 ITA to issue on 27th Nov

Prediction for next cut-off

18. 996 (>= crs 473, point 14) + 728 (crs 472) + 728 (crs 471) + 728 (crs 470) + 420 (crs 469). Since there are average 728 at crs 469, 420 selected applications will be adjusted by tie breaker.

Here is a detailed prediction for Wednesday's draw, considering the growth of new applicants entering the pools stays the same at for 13th Nov draw. The cutoff will be around 469.

 

[meow888]

Just submitted my EE profile. CRS is 473. Birthday is coming up in the first week of January...

 

[umayash]

This year feb had only 1 draw so there is no rule to have 2 draws a month.Also, the draw can happen on mon, dec 23 instead of 25 as it happened last year too.In that case it wont be b2b.

till now there were 2 draws every month, what we all saw from last 2 years, then how can u say, they have no such rules,

 

[umayash]

you just destroyed all our positif vibe.....sad

nobody can destroy anybody's vibes. Have patience, and be positive... your turn will come and u will surely get thru.

 

[armer29]

Just submitted my EE profile. CRS is 473. Birthday is coming up in the first week of January...

you have no point to worry. Next draw will be your

 

[Ramsha Bukhari]

you just destroyed all our positif vibe.....sad

RELAX! b2b draw will get some of us through but it will again cause a 3 weeks gap for the jan draw and CRS will shoot up again.If it happens to be regular draws with two weeks gap, it will be slow but steady all through jan/feb.Please keep the positive vibes up

 

[ManuelN]

I am sitting at 455 with my spouse and will be at 467 in February because of work experience. Do I have any chance ? O should I try to go with the spouse not accompanying route?

 

[Jraci]

Submitted my profile this morning, score 473

 

[mbel1014]

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS

• 460+ (Total 70) | Akhil994: 1041 | Hemilshah80: 1035 | Raghu: 480 | ontarioapplicant2019: 478 | SR_T: 473 | shine04: 472 | HariPriya12: 471 | EricD: 471 | nitestnbb : 471 | faisalshaikh: 471 | Siddharth-BOM: 471 | neerjabhinde: 471 | Islander5548: 471 | Ankit_90: 471 | Rahul221: 471 | japps: 471 | GG12345: 471 | nri7777: 470 | Satnamsingh: 470 | nihalpandit: 470 | naija2canadapr: 470 | Ria-sharma: 469 | Mandeep1989: 469 | Nixnic: 469 | leblord: 469 | mudjawd: 468 | cshetna: 468 | Alina2222: 468 | jonatan_ap: 468 | Luckbrother: 468 | Wrath: 468 | sri8707 : 467 | Dr Seun: 467 | Lazybug: 467 | Tahsina89: 466 | hunnysaini: 466 | KK_THE_GREAT: 466 | hkabz: 466 | cadiee: 466 | Tanvirk: 465 | cas009: 465 | umayash: 465 | rjv: 465 | aramab: 465 | Vazi: 465 | Nuzhat Ali: 465 | Ca_karan: 464 | ersabine: 464 | imtiaz_canada: 464 | Anu66: 463 | Woqi114: 463 | roadtofreedom: 463 | jindalbal: 463 | BindhuMadhvi: 463 | PinalThakkar: 462 | Dimpysimple: 462 | aikay: 462 | gobsaini: 462 | haris_raseed: 462 | eld43: 462 | masterfire: 462 | Leftarmover: 461 | ntachi: 461 | AJ1208: 461 | shergill12: 461| sinmansion: 461 | bambisp: 461 | cdddelhi: 461 | dilmohit: 461 | harshrk6392: 461 |

• 455-460 (Total 83) – | PrynkP: 460 | Ankoorva: 460 | DivyaS: 460 | terez1: 460 | Bahariesmoon88: 460 | Rickygugu: 460 | Wanttoleavenow: 460 | brs.123: 460 | JelenaPatric: 460 | Manish Patel: 459 | patel_d07: 459 | SolwayFirth: 459 | aramab: 459 | Sarunmoz: 459 | vishnusk1995: 459 | anukaran: 459 | awley: 459 | Nandita16: 459 | haider_Ali: 459 | WunderCat: 459 | Shawan: 459 | Samal: 459 | Sunsunny: 458 | ahsanshahbaz: 458 | fperk_83 : 458 | blueshark: 458 | Catnat: 458 | Kumar Vipul Shrivastva: 458 | harry605: 458 | Milanarora: 457 | sahils123: 457 | y996: 457 | cromaine: 457 | jamlabhai: 457 | Thumper : 457 | ArijitRoy: 457 | Limitless: 457 | Sapan1086: 457 | SG1507: 457 | ankitpanchal: 457 | Ankitg88: 457 | Manishprasher: 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Captain789: 456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | daksh1803: 456 | Mustafa Ghias: 456 | nklrwt: 456 | VKA: 456 | scarlettN: 456 | Imran_114: 456 | Kabir_krishna: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | greenshma_aju: 455 | aagosh6188: 455 | Daksh1: 455 | Hannan Khan: 455 | Hsiddiqui: 455 |

• 454-450 (Total 63) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | TD0911: 454 | MMUNEEBA: 454 | Jasmine172: 454 | SlowBurn: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | faith_works: 453 | Medhansh: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Sunrok: 453 | arvw: 453 | AR7: 453 | tokalaangel: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | masha27o: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | hmhk202: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Artk: 452 | Twindream: 452 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 | tanveer041: 450 |

• 445-449 (Total 61) - Div_newbie:449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | Nikhil Pal: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | Vibuthi: 449 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | tonyzz: 448 | a.altigani: 448 | matteis:447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | Islander5548: 446 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 |

• 441-444 (Total 36)- Shaanoh: 444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |

• 435-440 (Total 18) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | prince_lords: 439 | cadiee:438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Owen Takudzwa: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 |

• Below 435 (Total 7) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421 | rajapanesar: 417 | luzan: 326 |

If your score is not included in the list or score is changed please reply to this post with your current score. Thanks!

Please add me with 463. Thanks